mycarforum: Rupiah/Rupee at risk, SG/HK risk property bubble part 17

i was watching some youtube videos with regards to QE and tapering since it's hot topic this week

fed can single handedly "control" the usa market including major influence to the world market. yes, i understand that usa is a huge market, hence, they got the bullets.

on the contrary, spore is a small market, hence, govt can "easily" manage it by using policy and control measure, supply and demand, monetary and interest rate, etc.

i will definitely do not under estimated the govt invisible hand. just look at bto ... suka suka ramp up to 75000 and suka suka taper to 25000 .. hdb ... rental and buy new policy also can suka suka change.

since spore property market is small ... the chain reaction is impactful which means all based on bto and resale hdb. bto/hdb up and down has direct impact to private property market ... especially the mass market

Edited by Wt_know, 30 January 2014 - 04:43 PM.

i was watching some youtube videos with regards to QE and tapering since it's hot topic this week

fed can single handedly "control" the usa market including major influence to the world market. yes, i understand that usa is a huge market, hence, they got the bullets.

on the contrary, spore is a small market, hence, govt can "easily" manage it by using policy and control measure, supply and demand, monetary and interest rate, etc.

i will definitely do not under estimated the govt invisible hand. just look at bto ... suka suka ramp up to 75000 and suka suka taper to 25000 .. hdb ... rental and buy new policy also can suka suka change.

MND removing the advantages of HDB rental market..

Happy Lunar New Year to all!!

I'm hearing 2 school of thought from casual chat with colleagues, although I'm not in properties, well, just lunch kaki chat lor...

One side would never believe the market will crash, or fall badly.. This group always believe the gov will not allow that to happen.. Political suicide to allow that to happen since 2016 is just around the corner..

On the other group, they don't believe gov can do much since sg is hugely affected by external factor and if market crash, it's to their advantage since political change is the last thing people want when times are bad..

Hehehe... Anyway, I prefer market to drop to a sane level so that my kids don't have to sell backside just to buy a hdb in 15-20yrs time.. Hehehe...

�

I think it's a bigger problem for PAP in 2016 if they allow property prices to remain at current high levels. Immigration, jobs and inflation will become weapon to the opposition.

spore property market ... 70-80% is public housing (including EC) and 20%-ish is private property
what say you ... who has the control?
i cannot find another country with the property market is like this 80-20

Edited by Wt_know, 30 January 2014 - 04:50 PM.

Ghost of 1929 haunts, as 1997-style crisis hits Opinion: Fed role could decide how far we go

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By Anthony Mirhaydari

MW-BQ490_1929_c_20131206102948_MG.jpg?uu

Library of Congress

Crowd of people gather outside the New York Stock Exchange following the Crash of 1929.

Back in December, the bulls were foaming at the mouth in excitement over the market�s perfect 45-degree uptrend and seeming invulnerability to any negative catalyst.

After months of concern, the Federal Reserve took the first step to finally, five years after the financial crisis and well into an economic recovery, start pulling back on its most aggressive monetary policy stance in history. The December taper, taking the ongoing QE3 program�s monthly run-rate of bond purchases down $10 billion to $75 billion, seemingly went off without a hitch.

Click to Play

The Federal Reserve Finds Itself in a Bind

Paul Vigna and Michael Casey discuss the Federal Reserve meeting, and Dan Gallagher looks at the reaction to Apple's earnings.

This was helped by the fact that the Japanese seemed ready to keep flooding the global financial system with yen in a desperate effort to boost exports via currency devaluation.

It was at this time that I wrote a column noting the similarities between now and the run up to the 1929 market crash. Not only, on a pure price analog basis, the market�s ups and downs remarkably similar, but the primary driver of the uptrend � aggressive Fed bond buying late into a bull market � was also shared.

The scorn and mockery came next, as the �stocks can only go up� pure religion was defended. Price analogs were dismissed as pseudoscience. The fact the 1929 run up was so much stronger than now was cited as a dismissible offense for the comparison. And the classic �there�s money on the sidelines� justification was used to explain away historic levels of bullish sentiment, record margin debt, and aggressive positioning by retail investors.

MW-BT482_1929_a_20140128152617_MG.jpg?uu

Well guess what?

The ghost of the 1929 crash is still haunting the market, and the price analog is still in play as shown above. A regression analysis for the dates shown in the chart above results in a R-squared value of nearly 90% � meaning that nearly 90% of the current market movements can be explained by what happened in 1928 and 1929. It�s the texture of the pattern that matters, not the values themselves.

It suggests that we could see all of 2013�s epic melt-up rally reversed by April with the selling intensifying in March � which just so happens after the new drop-dead date for the latest round of the debt-ceiling title fight in Washington ahead of the mid-term elections.

The selling has been ignited by the realization that cheap money from the central banks � like all good things � becomes a problem when indulged into excess. You know, mo� money, mo� problems.

This time, artificially holding down the price of money in the major economies has sent hot money inflows into emerging-market economies like Turkey, Argentina and Russia. Now that interest rates are moving higher as the cheap money spigot is ever-so-slightly closed, it has set off a stampede to reverse these trades.

Foreign stock prices are being hammered. Foreign currencies are being hammered. And the Japanese yen, used by so many hedge funds as a funding currency for �carry trade,� is now shooting higher like a bottle rocket as the Japanese suffer the negatives of a weaker currency (higher food and fuel prices and a trade deficit) without the positives, and additional bond-buying stimulus now looks uncertain.

If stocks are following the echoes of the 1929 crash � with the ups and downs, like all technical analysis, a reflection of the shortcomings of human decision making and our susceptibility to behavioral and emotional weaknesses like chasing momentum and selling amidst panic � then what�s happening in the emerging markets feels a lot like the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Yes, there are differences. In 1997, we witnessed the collapse of many fixed exchange-rate regimes, starting with Thailand�s baht, as currency reserves were depleted. Most currencies of the countries under pressure now are free-floating or floating-but-managed regimes.

But the similarities are striking.

Then, as now, export-dependent countries throughout Asia were hammered by a sudden and violent depreciation in the Japanese yen. Then, as now, hard and fast currency drops resulted in import-price inflation, economic stagnation, the loss of dollar-reserve assets. And then, as now, it resulted in a quagmire for emerging-market policymakers as their central banks were forced to raise interest rates to stem the crisis, stabilize their currencies, and cap inflation, but pushing their economies deeper into a downturn as stock prices cratered.

In 1997, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst point loss ever at the time, the solution was international bailouts and the Fed hitting the pause button on its policy tightening. The result was the final, terminal phase of the dot-com bubble in 1998 and 1999.

Perhaps we see a repeat if the Fed, under Janet Yellen, decides to cave and keep the party going for a little while longer. The risk, of course, is that this will merely invite bigger problems down the road.

For now, I continue to recommend investor protect themselves from a worsening crisis by focusing on defensive assets like Treasury bonds and making opportunistic short-side plays. Examples include a position in the leveraged Direxion 3x Treasury Bond BullTMF�+2.22%��and a short against Brazilian steelmaker Companhia Siderurgica NacionalSID�-0.06%��. Both positions are carrying gains of more than 7% since I added them to my Edge Letter Sample Portfolio.

Disclosure: Anthony has recommended TMF and SID short to his clients.

Anthony Mirhaydari is founder of the Edge, an investment advisory newsletter, as well as Mirhaydari Capital Management, a registered investment advisory firm.�

nice chart [thumbsup]

ah ben cabut liao ... not my problem, he said ... lol

Edited by Wt_know, 30 January 2014 - 04:52 PM.

spore property market ... 70-80% is public housing (including EC) and 20%-ish is private property
what say you ... who has the control?
i cannot find another country with the property market is like this 80-20

75% is public housing and 25% is private in dollar value terms?
Or land area terms? Or what terms?
Gotta make sure we get that right.

75% of the population staying HDBs doesnt mean that the dollar value of this segment of the market is directly reflected , hor.....

I would take two steps back and analyse it a bit deeper than just that

Edited by Throttle2, 30 January 2014 - 05:00 PM.

Screenshot+-+30_1_2014+,+5_56_19+PM.jpg

wah ... jesse is so interested and motivated to write about singapore [sly] ...

Edited by Wt_know, 30 January 2014 - 07:38 PM.

<p> Ghost of 1929 haunts, as 1997-style crisis hits Opinion: Fed role could decide how far we go Stories You Might Like�
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�78�Comments�
��
��NEWWatchlist RelevanceLEARN MOREBy Anthony Mirhaydari
Library of Congress
Crowd of people gather outside the New York Stock Exchange following the Crash of 1929. Back in December, the bulls were foaming at the mouth in excitement over the markets perfect 45-degree uptrend and seeming invulnerability to any negative catalyst. After months of concern, the Federal Reserve took the first step to finally, five years after the financial crisis and well into an economic recovery, start pulling back on its most aggressive monetary policy stance in history. The December taper, taking the ongoing QE3 programs monthly run-rate of bond purchases down $10 billion to $75 billion, seemingly went off without a hitch. Click to Play The Federal Reserve Finds Itself in a Bind Paul Vigna and Michael Casey discuss the Federal Reserve meeting, and Dan Gallagher looks at the reaction to Apple's earnings. This was helped by the fact that the Japanese seemed ready to keep flooding the global financial system with yen in a desperate effort to boost exports via currency devaluation. It was at this time that I wrote a column noting the similarities between now and the run up to the 1929 market crash. Not only, on a pure price analog basis, the markets ups and downs remarkably similar, but the primary driver of the uptrend aggressive Fed bond buying late into a bull market was also shared. The scorn and mockery came next, as the stocks can only go up pure religion was defended. Price analogs were dismissed as pseudoscience. The fact the 1929 run up was so much stronger than now was cited as a dismissible offense for the comparison. And the classic theres money on the sidelines justification was used to explain away historic levels of bullish sentiment, record margin debt, and aggressive positioning by retail investors.
Well guess what? The ghost of the 1929 crash is still haunting the market, and the price analog is still in play as shown above. A regression analysis for the dates shown in the chart above results in a R-squared value of nearly 90% meaning that nearly 90% of the current market movements can be explained by what happened in 1928 and 1929. Its the texture of the pattern that matters, not the values themselves. It suggests that we could see all of 2013s epic melt-up rally reversed by April with the selling intensifying in March which just so happens after the new drop-dead date for the latest round of the debt-ceiling title fight in Washington ahead of the mid-term elections. The selling has been ignited by the realization that cheap money from the central banks like all good things becomes a problem when indulged into excess. You know, mo money, mo problems. This time, artificially holding down the price of money in the major economies has sent hot money inflows into emerging-market economies like Turkey, Argentina and Russia. Now that interest rates are moving higher as the cheap money spigot is ever-so-slightly closed, it has set off a stampede to reverse these trades. Foreign stock prices are being hammered. Foreign currencies are being hammered. And the Japanese yen, used by so many hedge funds as a funding currency for carry trade, is now shooting higher like a bottle rocket as the Japanese suffer the negatives of a weaker currency (higher food and fuel prices and a trade deficit) without the positives, and additional bond-buying stimulus now looks uncertain. If stocks are following the echoes of the 1929 crash with the ups and downs, like all technical analysis, a reflection of the shortcomings of human decision making and our susceptibility to behavioral and emotional weaknesses like chasing momentum and selling amidst panic then whats happening in the emerging markets feels a lot like the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Yes, there are differences. In 1997, we witnessed the collapse of many fixed exchange-rate regimes, starting with Thailands baht, as currency reserves were depleted. Most currencies of the countries under pressure now are free-floating or floating-but-managed regimes. But the similarities are striking. Then, as now, export-dependent countries throughout Asia were hammered by a sudden and violent depreciation in the Japanese yen. Then, as now, hard and fast currency drops resulted in import-price inflation, economic stagnation, the loss of dollar-reserve assets. And then, as now, it resulted in a quagmire for emerging-market policymakers as their central banks were forced to raise interest rates to stem the crisis, stabilize their currencies, and cap inflation, but pushing their economies deeper into a downturn as stock prices cratered. In 1997, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst point loss ever at the time, the solution was international bailouts and the Fed hitting the pause button on its policy tightening. The result was the final, terminal phase of the dot-com bubble in 1998 and 1999. Perhaps we see a repeat if the Fed, under Janet Yellen, decides to cave and keep the party going for a little while longer. The risk, of course, is that this will merely invite bigger problems down the road. For now, I continue to recommend investor protect themselves from a worsening crisis by focusing on defensive assets like Treasury bonds and making opportunistic short-side plays. Examples include a position in the leveraged Direxion 3x Treasury Bond BullTMF�+2.22%��and a short against Brazilian steelmaker Companhia Siderurgica NacionalSID�-0.06%��. Both positions are carrying gains of more than 7% since I added them to my Edge Letter Sample Portfolio. Disclosure: Anthony has recommended TMF and SID short to his clients. Anthony Mirhaydari is founder of the Edge, an investment advisory newsletter, as well as Mirhaydari Capital Management, a registered investment advisory firm.�

the difference between the 2 era is Internet age and flow of information that's instantaneous through social media... There is fast.reaction for huge swing correction and rebound.. No longer a 10year recession.. I'm surprised that most economist can state the similarities but not the differences..
The magic question is always when is the correction...

How many thinks what would the strategy that should be deployed to capitalize on the correction or Recession..

yeah the internet had changed the world including the "high frequency" trading that trade is executed by super computer that trade billions and hundred of billions of dollars ... funds can be moved from country to country ... continent to continent ... with a push of a button

�

not to mention the simi bloomberg, cnbc, etc ... 24x7 news and "propaganda" ... running on the tv

�

the difference between the 2 era is Internet age and flow of information that's instantaneous through social media... There is fast.reaction for huge swing correction and rebound.. No longer a 10year recession.. I'm surprised that most economist can state the similarities but not the differences..

�

Edited by Wt_know, 30 January 2014 - 07:46 PM.

yeah especially the "high frequency" trading that trade is executed by super computer that trade billions and hundred of billions of dollars

funds can be moved from country to country ... continent to continent ... with a push of a button

�

�

�

yes correct. �The flow of info is instantaneous, and immediate.

That's why 1997 and 2008 is similar yet different.. 2008/09 crisis came in weeks and gone in less than a year

That's why 1997 and 2008 is similar yet different.. 2008/09 crisis came in weeks and gone in less than a year

I am one who doesnt like to draw any similarities nor differences to any event.
I'd rather just see each one seperately understanding their causes and implications.
Specifically regarding local properties, i did not foresee and still dont, a crash.
But as it is now at least a 20% downward price adjustment must be experienced to get me interested in considering property as an investment.

And if caveats lodged are anything to go by, the last six months hv seen D9 prices come off between 5% to 10% already. Who here is buying, looking to buy, or has the firepower to buy , at current prices and conditions! Kee chiu!

None? I thought so.

That's why 1997 and 2008 is similar yet different.. 2008/09 crisis came in weeks and gone in less than a year

�

when asian crisis happened, d US stock mkt kept running up till 2000. im saying that asia can b in a crisis while US is still in bullrun. Most of d worlds consumption is still US n europe, it doesnt matter much if SG is in recession coz we dont effect anyone.

�

Tapering has begun n theres still US$65B to go. Thats at least 4-5 rounds more of stock mkts getting rattled everytime taper happens. Asia n emerging mkts r facing a massive carry trade unwind & as to how long more to go, i thk we're abt halfway done IMO.

�

India, turkey raised interest rates to stop capital outflow. SG doesnt have liquidity issue like them, but wat will cause SIBOR to jump is when Fed announces when theyll cancel ZIRP. Even before the actual event, expectations of rates rising will cause SIBOR to jump, so I'd listen carefully whenever Fed talks abt ZIRP n hints of cancellation. I dunno when this happens but Fed did talk abt 2015 being likely year of ZIRP cancel. If this is really true, then I expect SIBOR begin increasing ard 3Q14

Edited by Duckduck, 31 January 2014 - 12:26 AM.

The Famous Five?

The Jackson Five?

no, it's The Fragile Five

�

at this thread title highlighted rupee and rupiah are going down and more to come ... [sly]

�

Worst is yet to come for Fragile Five

�

Among the hardest hit are Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa -- dubbed the 'Fragile Five' by Morgan Stanley last August.

Edited by Wt_know, 31 January 2014 - 01:16 AM.

The Famous Five?

The Jackson Five?

no, it's The Fragile Five

�

at this thread title highlighted rupee and rupiah are going down and more to come ...

�

Worst is yet to come for Fragile Five

�

�

SG/HK bubble haben burst... no count...

The Famous Five?
The Jackson Five?
no, it's The Fragile Five
�
at this thread title highlighted rupee and rupiah are going down and more to come ...
�
Worst is yet to come for Fragile Five
�

there are always articles on doomdays in 2012, and article on silver lining during 2009... It all depends on which one do you believe and hence conduct a search on the types of articles.

Seize the day.. be prepared for the worse to come even when market seems good, and be happy even the the worse has come. Seize the opportunities as well.

Even if market collapse, then how? Got to have some backup plans, savings etc. . What if market don't collapse and we always keep thinking it will collapse and keep staying at sideline, don't invest, don't spend.. stay small house even when actually can afford a nicer place... Life is so short... Then suddenly realise 5 Yeats, 10 years gone...

I use to worry this worry that.. this don't spend that don't spend, then one day realise that a huge chunk of my savings is in the market! and that's the main reason I felt stressed about $$ all the time..

Then realigned my portfolio 2 years ago.. instead if 90% invested, 10% cash, became 5% equities, 95% cash.. suddenly I sleep better, work wise also perform much better so income also better, and actually the cash cow is ourselves..

in fact spend more now but savings also more..quality of life improve bec suddenly realise $ are meant to be spent, not stay invested and let it grow mouldy.

So my strategy for whatever doomsday be it short term or long term is very simple.. now minimal exposure.. when time comes, wack the market in 3 phrases.

Now just work and save and spend..

Edited by Chucky2007, 31 January 2014 - 08:44 AM.

I use to worry this worry that.. this don't spend that don't spend, then one day realise that a huge chunk of my savings is in the market! and that's the main reason I felt stressed about $$ all the time..

Then realigned my portfolio 2 years ago.. instead if 90% invested, 10% cash, became 5% equities, 95% cash.. suddenly I sleep better, work wise also perform much better so income also better, and actually the cash cow is ourselves..

in fact spend more now but savings also more..quality of life improve bec suddenly realise $ are meant to be spent, not stay invested and let it grow mouldy.

So my strategy for whatever doomsday be it short term or long term is very simple.. now minimal exposure.. when time comes, wack the market in 3 phrases.

Now just work and save and spend..

Not commenting on right or wrong , becos nobody truly knows.
but at least you have your own strategy and you act on it .
That i respect.
Well done.
Good for you.

History will never be able to tell us when and why the next crash is going to be?

History will never be able to tell us when and why the next crash is going to be?

It can, only after it has happened....

Muayhahahahahahahahahaahahah

That's why 1997 and 2008 is similar yet different.. 2008/09 crisis came in weeks and gone in less than a year

�

that's becos of TARPS and QEs

so who's going to save the market this time

China?
�

�
that's becos of TARPS and QEs
so who's going to save the market this time
China?
�

look at Russia and Brazil.. Worst scenario is default loh.. China never enjoy the status of a triple A like USA and the corporates are on credits but the consumers are not high geared like US.

Just my thoughts anyway.

judging from the trend

it will happen every 10 to 12 years

if the last one is 2008/09

the next one will be somewhere 2019-2021

�

unless somebody stabilse the market but still there are punks who will violate the market for their own gains

�

soros in 1997 while maddock in 2008

judging from the trend
it will happen every 10 to 12 years
if the last one is 2008/09
the next one will be somewhere 2019-2021
�
unless somebody stabilse the market but still there are punks who will violate the market for their own gains
�
soros in 1997 while maddock in 2008

from the perspective of Sg, the financial crisis are during 1997 (Arc), 2000 (dot com bubble), 2003 (Sars), 2008/9(Lehman), 2010/11(Europe).. Each is fast and.furious.

2010/11 euro crisis has almost zero impact in spore economy ... because govt did a very good job, no? [sly]

and also because of usa and euro debt crisis ... interest rate remain near 0 for the longest time

�

from the perspective of Sg, the financial crisis are during 1997 (Arc), 2000 (dot com bubble), 2003 (Sars), 2008/9(Lehman), 2010/11(Europe).. Each is fast and.furious.

�

Edited by Wt_know, 31 January 2014 - 02:36 PM.

And so whats the conclusion?

judging from the trend
it will happen every 10 to 12 years
if the last one is 2008/09
the next one will be somewhere 2019-2021
�
unless somebody stabilse the market but still there are punks who will violate the market for their own gains
�
soros in 1997 while maddock in 2008

who's maddock??

Conclusion nobody knows...

The pessimiSt and optimist are clear..

75% is public housing and 25% is private in dollar value terms?
Or land area terms? Or what terms?
Gotta make sure we get that right.

75% of the population staying HDBs doesnt mean that the dollar value of this segment of the market is directly reflected , hor.....

I would take two steps back and analyse it a bit deeper than just that

�

I suspect that 75% number comes from the housing stock of private vs hdb.�

�

http://www.singapore...-housing-stock/

�

IT should be easy to calculate the dollar value of private and hdb by estimating their relative value... 1.5-2 private = 1 hdb??

as at 2012, 922k (77%) hdb vs 277k (23%) private

with the ramp up supply of hdb/ec, the percentage of public housing should increase slightly

as at 2012, only 1.2M housing stock for the population of 5M ... no wonder property is sibei HOT

�

�

I suspect that 75% number comes from the housing stock of private vs hdb.�

�

http://www.singapore...-housing-stock/

�

IT should be easy to calculate the dollar value of private and hdb by estimating their relative value... 1.5-2 private = 1 hdb??

�

Edited by Wt_know, 01 February 2014 - 10:25 AM.

And so whats the conclusion?

Dont wait for a crash

who's maddock??

�

sorry

it was Bernard Madoff

�
sorry
it was Bernard Madoff

But madoff didn't cause any market destabilisation. He just siphoned off clients' money

�
I suspect that 75% number comes from the housing stock of private vs hdb.�
�
http://www.singapore...-housing-stock/
�
IT should be easy to calculate the dollar value of private and hdb by estimating their relative value... 1.5-2 private = 1 hdb??

2 private = 1 hdb???
No way Jose.

2 private = 1 hdb???
No way Jose.

�

why not? you think should be higher or lower?

�

I don't know the exact number but 2 is probably reasonable.

�

Some guy calculated for 2011. Around 2 is probably realistic +/-50%.

�

http://trulysingapor...ss.com/2012/09/

property price up or down got nothing to do with QE, interest rate or debt crisis ...

�

it's because of snake, horse, yin/yang, fire and many more ... [thumbsup] LOL

�

http://sg.finance.ya...84--sector.html

�

Already, in the last quarter of the Snake year in 2013, we began to see property prices falling, and once the Horse year officially arrives on February 4 2014, we may experience a sharper fall in property prices.

In the second half of the year, the "yin fire" is strong. This can cause property prices to rise a fair bit and then remain stable towards the end of the year. This is because the "yin fire" supports the "earth" element, which represents property. Therefore property prices would start to rise, but not at the same rate that overall property prices will fall in the first half of 2014.

Edited by Wt_know, 01 February 2014 - 04:48 PM.

with 6.9mil coming , not only will it burst , it will sink the whole island lah !

No, no it won't sink.

�

We need to recruit more people to better support our ponzi scheme.

Edited by Albeniz, 01 February 2014 - 04:48 PM.

�
why not? you think should be higher or lower?
�
I don't know the exact number but 2 is probably reasonable.
�
Some guy calculated for 2011. Around 2 is probably realistic +/-50%.
�
http://trulysingapor...ss.com/2012/09/

What guy? Not counted, muayhaha

Muayhahahahaha, got say like got no say.

Attached Thumbnails

But madoff didn't cause any market destabilisation. He just siphoned off clients' money

�

yup clients money that includes banks, certain country funds

I wonder will warren buffett , sell stocks and buy stocks base on sentiments?

Edited by frenchfly, 01 February 2014 - 06:28 PM.

I wonder will warren buffett , sell stocks and buy stocks base on sentiments?

Of course, any truly experienced investor would.

Ok, you must be very experience investor, still learning

yup ... sentiment is more lethal than fundamental

�

people fear property price cheong ... buy buy buy

people fear coe cheong ... buy buy buy

people fear miss the bus seeing everyone is buying ... buy buy buy

�

fear and greed rules

�

Of course, any truly experienced investor would.

�

yup ... sentiment is more lethal than fundamental
�
people fear property price cheong ... buy buy buy
people fear coe cheong ... buy buy buy
people fear miss the bus seeing everyone is buying ... buy buy buy
�
fear and greed rules
�
�

Buffett invests with a long term outlook and only if the business makes sense. His investment approach is backed by rigorous analysis and confidence in a sound and capable management team.

Can you quote an example where he invests solely based on sentiments?

yup ... buffett invest long term and 10 years is considered short [thumbsup]

unlike speculators and flippers ... aim for quick money

�

buffett famous quote is when he buy the share he has no intention to sell the share unless the company business is going down

�

many like to quote buffett but buffett not anyhow invest ... when he invest in the company, he actually bought enough shares that make him / Berkshire Hathaway a substaintial shareholder where he has direct access to the invested company

�

Buffett invests with a long term outlook and only if the business makes sense. His investment approach is backed by rigorous analysis and confidence in a sound and capable management team.

Can you quote an example where he invests solely based on sentiments?

�

Edited by Wt_know, 01 February 2014 - 07:29 PM.

Buffett invests with a long term outlook and only if the business makes sense. His investment approach is backed by rigorous analysis and confidence in a sound and capable management team.

Can you quote an example where he invests solely based on sentiments?

Aiyoh, not solely lah, who ever does it solely on sentiments except in a casino?
Ok ? ? , your call.

Hehheh

Ok, you must be very experience investor, still learning

Me ah?

I only ??? lah.....

So little money, doulble also make not difference.....*sigh*

Edited by Throttle2, 01 February 2014 - 07:39 PM.

Buffett's famous words, " buy when everyone is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy " lean on sentiments.

Of course Buffett of all people would understand how sentiments and behavioural sciences impact the markets, he is one who has and will play that to his fullest advantage.

This is not to say that he is one big time gambler who will take rash bets.
But bets, he will take , thats a bet i will take.

Edited by Throttle2, 01 February 2014 - 07:56 PM.

Buffett's famous words, " buy when everyone is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy " lean on sentiments.

Of course Buffett of all people would understand how sentiments and behavioural sciences impact the markets, he is one who has and will play that to his fullest advantage.

This is not to say that he is one big time gambler who will take rash bets.
But bets, he will take , thats a bet i will take.

�

I don't want to go into semantics but Buffett's famous words are not based on sentiments. It is based on human behavior and consequential impact on the markets. It is backed by logic. Sentiment (by definition) is based on emotion instead of reason; it has no concrete data to back it up.

�

But let's agree that he is damn good at what he does lah ok?

�
I don't want to go into semantics but Buffett's famous words are not based on sentiments. It is based on human behavior and consequential impact on the markets. It is backed by logic. Sentiment (by definition) is based on emotion instead of reason; it has no concrete data to back it up.
�
But let's agree that he is damn good at what he does lah ok?

I didnt say it was based on becos base is too strong a word, so i say lean.

Human behaviour is not void of sentiments. Whether its driven purely by logic or not, i cannot say as the market ( not just stock) is sometimes just so crazy. If only it could be deciphered with 100% logic, every trade would be a winning trade.

Fear and greed are emotions, not necessarily logical
Why would some people be fearful of a small insect which can do no harm, while yet not be afraid of a animal fierce and strong enough to rip their limbs? Where's the logic?

And yes, i agree, i never thought Buffett is otherwise from what he is known for anyway.

�

think the accounting for the profit is not so simple as to price 1 - price 2 = profit..

�

there is stamp duty involves and 2.5m stamp is ard 75k.. which is pretty signicifcate.. not forgetting agent fee� etc . you also assume that that they sell each house after paying for the house.. which may not be true. I wont be surprise that they already have 1 mil in the bank on investment, while the 2.5 mil is on low-int mortgage..

�

in any case, there are finer details that will determine if you could surive a crisis.

1) your mthly mortage amt ..

2) income source . 1-2 or more

3) cash buffer

4) % of loan

5) location of the property - ease of rent

�

most imptly, if that is your only house. if it is, then will be harder to sell. Too much emotion and logistic involve.

of course i know that. if you throw in too many moving variables, it just complicates the final calculation for a forum discussion unless we all attach an excel spreadsheet calculating the above and all scenario analysis. [sweatdrop]

Local stock market has been seeing red for quite some time, a sign of hot money flowing out of Singapore?

Local stock market has been seeing red for quite some time, a sign of hot money flowing out of Singapore?

ya man.. all my STI USD stocks are down for quite some time.... KNN

Muayhahahahaha, got say like got no say.

�

so how much he charged for this prediction?

traders are still on holiday ... have not see the real impact yet

stil extremenly thin volume

i suspect more news will come out from usa or euro ... this will affect the market up/down

�

Pressure building for ECB rate cut

Edited by Wt_know, 03 February 2014 - 11:24 AM.

ya man.. all my STI USD stocks are down for quite some time.... KNN

Its ok lah, i lost more than a B cat COE already..... But why worry? Up and down is normal lah....haha

Its ok lah, i lost more than a B cat COE already..... But why worry? Up and down is normal lah....haha

seasoned player

seasoned player

Seasoned loser , dude. Long time no see.

Seasoned loser , dude. Long time no see.

Been busy earning my 3 meals..times are hard.

Been busy earning my 3 meals..times are hard.

wah lau in your line, times where got such thing as hard.
Its either very good, sibei good or damn bloody good !!

Hahah

All the best in the Horse yr, dude

Its ok lah, i lost more than a B cat COE already..... But why worry? Up and down is normal lah....haha

when u make $$ you can get free RR...

when u make $$ you can get free RR...

Honestly, i am one of those who dont make much from the markets.
All i target is slow and steady gains over the years.
Every now and then, i do take some tactical bets, usually no more than $50k per pop.
So even if it goes up a fair bit, profits are hardly ever in the tens of thousands.

Dont suan me like that lah.
I am a freaking small fry, can make a little here and there to fund my cigars, i happy liao

UK is considering protectionism pattern liao

�

Ban UK overseas buyers: report

�

Today's report blames foreign property buyers for driving property prices out of the reach of many U.K. citizens. It says that in 2012 a total of 85 percent of prime London property purchases were made with "overseas money", and that two-thirds of overseas buyers were purchasing for investment purposes.
�

It also notes that since 2012 more than half of all new homes in central London were sold to residents of Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, China and Russia, with just 27 percent being purchased by U.K. residents.

�

Edited by Wt_know, 03 February 2014 - 09:00 PM.

if sti down to 2500pts ... will there be firesale for d10 property? [sly]

if sti down to 2500pts ... will there be firesale for d10 property?

Er er.....but but....only just a few months ago many agents told me that Singapore property price will never fall one leh....

Er er.....but but....only just a few months ago many agents told me that Singapore property price will never fall one leh....

�

yeah. because government will never allow it . You dont know meh? Our govt is all powerful. Can summon wind and rain with their IQ power

�

and also because of 6.9 million

Edited by Wyfitms, 04 February 2014 - 09:50 AM.

True, the size of singapore is only a dot

if the land size is like malaysia then it would be hard to manage

compare singapore to monopoly, there can only be 1 winner. We all know who the winner will be.

Edited by frenchfly, 04 February 2014 - 02:28 PM.

UK is considering protectionism pattern liao

�

Ban UK overseas buyers: report

�

It also notes that since 2012 more than half of all new homes in central London were sold to residents of Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, China and Russia, with just 27 percent being purchased by U.K. residents.

�

�

pap's fault again!

Created too many millionaries in Singapore.

just watched cna 8pm sg+ program that discuss bto/hdb and its policy
at the end of the program, the host ask what's your wish list ... i am fully agreed with one of the guest on these points

please please please build bigger flat. spore already small ... not everyone can afford condo, landed property or even a car. but at least give them a bigger flat when they come home after work, they can at least enjoy and appreciate what they have achieve. bigger flat also motivate familty to have more babies although it is not 100% true formula but smaller flat definitely demoralise to build bigger family.

spore is already a little red dot. i guess the least the govt can do is to build bigger bto/hdb ... after a long day of work wiping table come home also can enjoy abit instead for facing 4 walls

Edited by Wt_know, 04 February 2014 - 08:43 PM.

just watched cna 8pm sg+ program that discuss bto/hdb and its policy
at the end of the program, the host ask what's your wish list ... i am fully agreed with one of the guest on these points

please please please build bigger flat. spore already small ... not everyone can afford condo, landed property or even a car. but at least give them a bigger flat when they come home after work, they can at least enjoy and appreciate what they have achieve. bigger flat also motivate familty to have more babies although it is not 100% true formula but smaller flat definitely demoralise to build bigger family.

spore is already a little red dot. i guess the least the govt can do is to build bigger bto/hdb ... after a long day of work wiping table come home also can enjoy abit instead for facing 4 walls

Yes, build bigger flats for goodness sake and i just finished wiping the last tables.......better keep my black(cloth)berry or else hv to wipe whole nite through....sad life....

i guess it's all about money ... in order to keep bto/hdb "affordable", the only way is to build smaller and smaller

�

if min 105sqm ... no $500k no talk?

Edited by Wt_know, 05 February 2014 - 07:49 AM.

i guess it's all about money ... in order to keep bto/hdb "affordable" and�"maintain" the fat income for cheng hu, the only way is to build smaller and smaller

�

if min 105sqm ... no $500k no talk?

I corrected for you... [grin]

Bishan median COV is zero?�

�

COVs for resale flats fall to 4.5 year low

Property Guru��1 hour 12 minutes ago

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Recommend
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�
Print

�

The median cash-over-valuation (COV) for HDB flats has dropped yet again to $3,000 in the month of January, according to fresh market data.�

Previously, the median COV had fallen to $5,000 in December 2013.�

January's figure is the lowest since similar levels were matched in June 2009 during the global financial crisis.�

Eight out of 28 HDB estates reported zero or negative median COV, namely�Bishan, Geylang, Jurong West, Punggol, Sengkang, Sembawang,�Woodlands�and Yishun.�

Despite the decline, HDB resale prices bucked the trend. They inched up by 0.3 percent in the month which reverses the general decline seen in the market since Q2 2013.�

Meanwhile, demand for�resale flats�remains tepid with the sales volume falling to 893 transactions last month from 910 in December 2013.

�

Romesh Navaratnarajah, Senior Editor at PropertyGuru, wrote this story. To contact him about this or other stories email�PropertyGuru.com.sg%20'>romeshPropertyGuru.com.sg

�

Valuation got go down too?

Valuation got go down too?

�

once average COV goes into negative. you can expect valuations to drop too as they are based on comparable transactions

�

once average COV goes into negative. you can expect valuations to drop too as they are based on comparable transactions

�

imo valuation is a snake oil... evaluator base on "their" data to valuate, and that's how they can push up the value .... it should have drop first before cov drop and not the other way round..
�

�

�

imo valuation is a snake oil... evaluator base on "their" data to valuate, and that's how they can push up the value .... it should have drop first before cov drop and not the other way round..
�

�

valuation using comparable transaction is the best way to value residential. This method has been around since pre-war era

�

otherwise how to determine whether to adjust valuation up or down?

�

�

imo valuation is a snake oil... evaluator base on "their" data to valuate, and that's how they can push up the value .... it should have drop first before cov drop and not the other way round..
�

i encountered a valuer who cannot even differentiate ceramic tiles from homo tiles. although it makes no diff to the final valuation figure, it shows up her (in)competence.

�

nowadays, there are homo tiles which look like marble flooring. one of the main diff is the feel of the grout line for any homo tiles. maybe can bluff lousy valuers and raise valuation up by a few K. [lipsrsealed]

�

�

valuation using comparable transaction is the best way to value residential. This method has been around since pre-war era

�

otherwise how to determine whether to adjust valuation up or down?

toss a coin...

[laugh]

i encountered a valuer who cannot even differentiate ceramic tiles from homo tiles. although it makes no diff to the final valuation figure, it shows up her (in)competence.

�

nowadays, there are homo tiles which look like marble flooring. one of the main diff is the feel of the grout line for any homo tiles. maybe can bluff lousy valuers and raise valuation up by a few K.

�

no need to bluff valuers lah. some can easily give u 5 figure more. it is called valuation smoothing� :ph34r:

Valuation cannot drop ah!

�

Wait HDB have to sell BTO at lower prices, raiding the reserves you know?

Valuation cannot drop ah!

�

Wait HDB have to sell BTO at lower prices, raiding the reserves you know?

�

earn enough already lah

�

when valuation drops, you can be sure there will be less BTOs launching as well

�

earn enough already lah

�

when valuation drops, you can be sure there will be less BTOs launching as well

�

This current team knows the meaning of "earn enough already" meh? I'm getting the impression that their greed knows no bounds.

Will someone post todays papers on the psf$ price dropping more than 10% i think....

Bo eng , wiping tables lah, paiseh

Will someone post todays papers on the psf$ price dropping more than 10% i think....

Bo eng , wiping tables lah, paiseh

�

yeah, i already received SMS. Developer slashing 10% from Bt Timah condo. Too bad for those who bought earlier.

Slash 10% no need post lah

Wait until 50% discount then post big big

But if got new watch no need news also can post

Edited by Enye, 06 February 2014 - 06:07 PM.

�
yeah, i already received SMS. Developer slashing 10% from Bt Timah condo. Too bad for those who bought earlier.

Only Bt Timah condo? Which condo?

Condo forum has a thread started 12 mths ago documenting mostly weak resale pricing for CCR properties bought a few years and sold recently.

Source: http://forums.condos...=13068&page=177

Only Bt Timah condo? Which condo?

Condo forum has a thread started 12 mths ago documenting mostly weak resale pricing for CCR properties bought a few years and sold recently.

Source: http://forums.condos...=13068&page=177

We will see prices come down.
There is no argument on the direction by now.
Question is magnitude and velocity of the drop.
That would determine the casaulty rate.

wah ... the news reported RIVERBANK FERNVALE ... PC at EC price

�

choon bo??? like that die die must buy liao ...

�

got EC at BTO price? lol

Edited by Wt_know, 06 February 2014 - 08:48 PM.

wah ... the news reported RIVERBANK FERNVALE ... PC at EC price
�
choon bo??? like that die die must buy liao ...
�
got EC at BTO price? lol

Ooops, once the herd instinct comes to play, we see who wants to be the last man standing......wooohoooo.....

PC at EC price becos EC is at PC price. Geddit?

Ole ole ole ole ole....

Attached Thumbnails

When the tide subsides, we will see who have been swimming around naked.

wah ... the news reported RIVERBANK FERNVALE ... PC at EC price

�

choon bo??? like that die die must buy liao ...

�

got EC at BTO price? lol

�

sales gimmick lah

�

quantum is EC pricing

�

but PSF.. haha still more than $1k psf

Ole ole ole ole ole....

�

please tilt your wrist a little more.. can't see clearly�

wah ... the news reported RIVERBANK FERNVALE ... PC at EC price
�
choon bo??? like that die die must buy liao ...
�
got EC at BTO price? lol

I want bungalow at EC price! Wu boh?

unfortunately, mass market buyers have been "brain washed" that $1000psf is damn cheap, is a steal, you don't buy now no more liao

�

not remembering less than 5 years ago ... the same location condo was selling $600-$700psf .... areas like jurong, cck, bukit panjang, yishun, woodland, psf was $500++ nia .... now all close to $1k and buyers already shouting cheap liao

�

�

sales gimmick lah

�

quantum is EC pricing

�

but PSF.. haha still more than $1k psf

�

please tilt your wrist a little more.. can't see clearly�

�

I want bungalow at EC price! Wu boh?

�

Wu!�

�

East Ledang. Ai mai?

�

ACoording to those who stay there, travel to CBD door to door can be as fast as 45mins

unfortunately, mass market buyers have been "brain washed" that $1000psf is damn cheap, is a steal, you don't buy now no more liao

�

not remembering less than 5 years ago ... the same location condo was selling $600-$700psf .... areas like jurong, cck, bukit panjang, yishun, woodland, psf was $500++ nia .... now all close to $1k and buyers already shouting cheap liao

�

�

�

it's like when a lie is repeated too often, it will become the "truth"

Edited by Wyfitms, 07 February 2014 - 09:52 AM.

unfortunately, mass market buyers have been "brain washed" that $1000psf is damn cheap, is a steal, you don't buy now no more liao
�
not remembering less than 5 years ago ... the same location condo was selling $600-$700psf .... areas like jurong, cck, bukit panjang, yishun, woodland, psf was $500++ nia .... now all close to $1k and buyers already shouting cheap liao
�
�

What 600-700 psf... Last time mass market condo got 400-500 psf also ah

Already said liao, mass market condo cannot buy one... It's no different from HDB except got security niah. Even facilities also jialat one... Ratio is 1000 units to one swimming pool...

Wan to buy condo, also get those in D9,10,11 type, if cannot afford those, then get those short supply neighbourhood like Leicester Rd or City Square type... More "exclusive" and freehold and not in HDB estate.

Avoid those in HDB estates. Hoh kua boh hoh jiak one... Siao one... Simi condo right next to HDB... Might as well save money stay HDB and renovate swee swee plus got one Porsche in MSCP.

unfortunately, mass market buyers have been "brain washed" that $1000psf is damn cheap, is a steal, you don't buy now no more liao
�
not remembering less than 5 years ago ... the same location condo was selling $600-$700psf .... areas like jurong, cck, bukit panjang, yishun, woodland, psf was $500++ nia .... now all close to $1k and buyers already shouting cheap liao
�
�

Same goes for coe, if you say 40k a piece now, many will tell you, go buy... Very cheap liao.. Hehehe..

I want bungalow at EC price! Wu boh?

Got. You like south or North?

�

South is Bintang. North... Segamat... [:p]

For HDB, I think govt cannot afford it let it drop too much. Or else Govt will get f**ked big time from the haves and the have-nots. What they want is a compromise, otherwise they risk pissing off both sides and lose the vote in 2016.

HDB prices are the support level for private properties. I guess 20% down is a comfortable compromise to keep HDB owners happy, allow them to upgrade to private, and also let new buyers afford to buy HDB.

Got. You like south or North?
�
South is Bintang. North... Segamat...

Naohia... I talking south is Sentosa, north is Upper Thomson lah. Haha

huat ah !!! more are coming ... just 0.5% of 1 Billion live abroad is 5,000,000 people

5M richies divide by these 6 destinations ... really jiak beh liao

�

Where rich Chinese want to live

�

Edited by Wt_know, 07 February 2014 - 10:46 AM.

if you talk to a property agent, he will quickly suan you ...

yeah right, like kopi-c can go back to 60cents and hdb can go back to $250k ... lol

�

What 600-700 psf... Last time mass market condo got 400-500 psf also ah

Already said liao, mass market condo cannot buy one... It's no different from HDB except got security niah. Even facilities also jialat one... Ratio is 1000 units to one swimming pool...

Wan to buy condo, also get those in D9,10,11 type, if cannot afford those, then get those short supply neighbourhood like Leicester Rd or City Square type... More "exclusive" and freehold and not in HDB estate.

Avoid those in HDB estates. Hoh kua boh hoh jiak one... Siao one... Simi condo right next to HDB... Might as well save money stay HDB and renovate swee swee plus got one Porsche in MSCP.

�

Edited by Wt_know, 07 February 2014 - 11:07 AM.

if you talk to a property agent, he will quickly suan you ...
yeah right, like kopi-c can go back to 60cents and hdb can go back to $250k ... lol
�
�

Last time police man wear shorts ah

developer beh tahan liao ... cry papa cry mama to govt to loosen CMs

but i still find private property is expensive leh ... guess i can never afford a private property liao

got to go for resale hdb liao ... hearsay, bishan cov $0 liao ... can consider bo? lol

�

Edited by Wt_know, 07 February 2014 - 04:38 PM.

developer beh tahan liao ... cry papa cry mama to govt to loosen CMs
but i still find private property is expensive leh ... guess i can never afford a private property liao
got to go for resale hdb liao ... hearsay, bishan cov $0 liao ... can consider bo? lol
�

A reflection of how scared developers truly are.... And they are IN the market right?
I dont want soft landing leh, i want it to hit the ground hard the way it should...

Edited by Throttle2, 07 February 2014 - 04:44 PM.

developer like car dealer ... all gang up and cry papa cry mama

all breathe through same nostril ... no $1M no talk [sly]

it's time to reap profit ... huat ah!

Edited by Wt_know, 07 February 2014 - 04:51 PM.

developer beh tahan liao ... cry papa cry mama to govt to loosen CMs

but i still find private property is expensive leh ... guess i can never afford a private property liao

got to go for resale hdb liao ... hearsay, bishan cov $0 liao ... can consider bo? lol

�

�

cushy million dollar job on the line

�

got try got hope, no try no hope

�

of course die die must try

knn eat shit la property developers...

As the market heated up, the cooling measures come in so slow and light.

So as the market cools down, the CM should be removed slowly and lightly too.

Who is buying an investment property now?
Kee chiu!

hmm ... will govt consider to lift up ABSD? this has been bring up several times liao leh

�

if lift up ABSD ... local still kena TDSR and MSR .... foreign investor huat ah!!! [sly]

Edited by Wt_know, 07 February 2014 - 05:48 PM.

As the market heated up, the cooling measures come in so slow and light.

So as the market cools down, the CM should be removed slowly and lightly too.

Who is buying an investment property now?
Kee chiu!

�

[thumbsup]

If act on Kwek advice immediately, PAP will be seen as pro developer leh...

If act on Kwek advice immediately, PAP will be seen as pro developer leh...

�

snice when they are seen as NOT?... [grin]

Aiyoyo
Behsai
Susah
Developer

we just want to sell sell sell .... huat ah!!!

Edited by Wt_know, 07 February 2014 - 10:01 PM.

developer beh tahan liao ... cry papa cry mama to govt to loosen CMs

but i still find private property is expensive leh ... guess i can never afford a private property liao

got to go for resale hdb liao ... hearsay, bishan cov $0 liao ... can consider bo? lol

�

�

He made the call during the REDAS Chinese New Year lunch today
�

He said "tweak" .....

Maybe tweak it tighter a bit, squeeze the shit out of sellers?

Good good.

mycarforum

Thứ Tư, 4 tháng 1, 2017

Rupiah/Rupee at risk, SG/HK risk property bubble part 17

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