Thứ Tư, 4 tháng 1, 2017

Rupiah/Rupee at risk, SG/HK risk property bubble part 40

  • 12 December 2014 - 12:05 PM
    Throttle2
    Not that i believe anything thats reported becos i always make my own assessment but here for today.

    Yippee
    Not ready? Aiyoh who is ever ready when taking a big loss?
    Stamp duty already kena pay for nothing loh.
    Muayhahahaha

    Wonder which developer is in the business of building houses only to sell to themselves or to rent out?
    Cant stop laughing.....

    Attached Thumbnails

    • image.jpg
    • image.jpg

  • 12 December 2014 - 12:31 PM
    Throttle2
    Anyway let me share a story ok?

    Once a gambler and his friend went to casino
    The gambler was on a winning streak and his friend advised him to stop
    Gambler said why stop? Must make more as the streak will last. Moreover he looked around and saw many others winning.
    Friend advised again to stop

    Gambler brings in all sorts of reason not to.
    Even citing that the casino is encouraging bu giving free food and drinks

    Well the gambler did not lose everything thankfully becos his friend pulls him out of the casino by force. But he still went back with much less than he started.

    Back at home, the gambler starting blaming the stars, the color of his wife's underwear and even the birthday of his children for causing the loss. A huge argument ensues with the family and relationships are destroyed.

    The gambler then turns his anger on the casino, for the free food and drinks enticing him to play and lose. For the beautiful picture painted that didnt come true. He wants casinos to stop such "policies" and lobbies for support from others. But yet all this while continues going back to the casinos.


    Moral of the story?
    The gambler was not ready to lose his pants
    He was not ready to face a family breakup
    He was not ready to lose his job
    He was just simply..........not ready.

    Hope you all like my bedtime story.
    I guess many hv heard similar ones

    Edited by Throttle2, 12 December 2014 - 12:33 PM.

  • 12 December 2014 - 01:28 PM
    Enye

    Anyway let me share a story ok?

    Once a gambler and his friend went to casino
    The gambler was on a winning streak and his friend advised him to stop
    Gambler said why stop? Must make more as the streak will last. Moreover he looked around and saw many others winning.
    Friend advised again to stop

    Gambler brings in all sorts of reason not to.
    Even citing that the casino is encouraging bu giving free food and drinks

    Well the gambler did not lose everything thankfully becos his friend pulls him out of the casino by force. But he still went back with much less than he started.

    Back at home, the gambler starting blaming the stars, the color of his wife's underwear and even the birthday of his children for causing the loss. A huge argument ensues with the family and relationships are destroyed.

    The gambler then turns his anger on the casino, for the free food and drinks enticing him to play and lose. For the beautiful picture painted that didnt come true. He wants casinos to stop such "policies" and lobbies for support from others. But yet all this while continues going back to the casinos.


    Moral of the story?
    The gambler was not ready to lose his pants
    He was not ready to face a family breakup
    He was not ready to lose his job
    He was just simply..........not ready.

    Hope you all like my bedtime story.
    I guess many hv heard similar ones


    After lunch already very sleepy you still tell bedtime stories

  • 13 December 2014 - 05:44 PM
    Voodooman

    more fire sales coming
    $70M-$80M will go under the hammer ... huat ah
    how to lowball? [sly]


    I am surprised interest rate is so low and job market so stable yet so many hammer sales, imagine interest rates were to double and rental market continues to soften... still don't see a crash but property market often over/ under perform. So expect the unexpected.
  • 13 December 2014 - 05:59 PM
    Throttle2

    I am surprised interest rate is so low and job market so stable yet so many hammer sales, imagine interest rates were to double and rental market continues to soften... still don't see a crash but property market often over/ under perform. So expect the unexpected.


    Hope for the best, prepare for the worst....
  • 13 December 2014 - 06:07 PM
    Wt_know
    anyone bought at auction before?
    i feel hard to get good deal at auction leh
    big boys and crocodile all aiming to get and sell to make a quick buck
  • 13 December 2014 - 06:16 PM
    Throttle2

    I am surprised interest rate is so low and job market so stable yet so many hammer sales, imagine interest rates were to double and rental market continues to soften... still don't see a crash but property market often over/ under perform. So expect the unexpected.

    Bro, the reason is fairly simple.

    There are many many leveraged property investments.
    when prices come off, no one wants to benthe last man standing as i hv mentioned before many many times. Hammer sales are due usually to overleveraged situations yet not always the case.
    However increase in hammer sales is a direct reflection of the buying appetite.

    If, and if only our property market is made largely by real demand, then there is no fear of sudden huge selling pressures unless serious recession loss of income etc...
    But that is not the case.

    Our property prices are held up much more so by investors and speculators.
    When the measures came into play, you see the first level at standstill, ie speculators. Bringing a dip in prices.

    We are now in the second layer, ie investors. It is clear that this category is now at standstill.
    So a further dip is inevitable.

    There are several types of investors too but for simplicity, we can breakdown investors into 2 types, long term (10yrs and beyond) and short term (5yrs to 10yrs)
    We can further breakdown these into various other categories which i wont be bothered to highlight here.
    All these impact the market. Nobody can truly pinpoint and like the stock markets, it takes a good understanding of fundaments, some reading of price historicals and lastly but not least, a fair amount of gut feel.

    Bottomline, direction is down, velocity is increasing. All smack within my personal forecast after employing the above three major elements. As Jamesc said, i am trying to boost my own self esteem, yay! Woohoo.

    But dont take my words on where we're headed,i am just a low level, table wiping, below average man in the street, unlike the many true gurus like......you know who lah....
  • 14 December 2014 - 11:15 AM
    Throttle2


    If Singapore were a stand-alone economy with no dependence on external economies, having a stringent TDSR permanently in place would not be an issue.

    As you have pointed out, it helps to maintain financial prudence on the part of borrowers and responsible lending on the part of financiers.

    Unfortunately Singapore is closely linked to the global economy and is very much affected by the monetary policies of other countries. Loose lending by the central banks of the U.S.A. and now the EU means that monetary/currency warfare is ongoing.�

    Much as we would hope for an economy that is built on good values such as industriousness and innovation, a lot of the global financial markets are driven by morally-hazardous financial wizardry today.�

    Stringent money-lending and financing policies will result in investors shunning our country in search for greener pastures. This will lead to fewer businesses being set up in Singapore and consequently fewer jobs being created.

    As such, TDSR needs to be tweaked in line with the dynamics of the global economy. It cannot be cast in concrete.



    "Finance is a gun, Politics is the trigger"
  • 14 December 2014 - 11:21 AM
    Throttle2

    well said. play safe don't work for long ...
    if others play risky or even play dirty ...
    we got to fight back ... else we'll lose big time

    monetary policy
    interest rate
    currency exchange rate
    low tax
    foreign direct investment incentives
    ease of immigration & FT to work here
    etc etc etc

    all the above will put on pressure to local market ... but that's how things work
    the big question is how fast govt react and how "smart" are they with all the information they got to plan ahead


    monetary policy, see interest rate generally
    Interest rate, just follow blindly , easy.
    Currency exchange policy, unchanged since a long time
    Low tax, errr errr err. Very high indirect taxes
    Foreign direct investment incentives , plentiful
    Ease and flow of immigrants, already f**ked up big time.
    Etc etc etc, i am really keen to see.

    Wahaha
  • 14 December 2014 - 11:23 AM
    OmOm

    well said. play safe don't work for long ...

    if others play risky or even play dirty ...

    we got to fight back ... else we'll lose big time

    monetary policy

    interest rate

    currency exchange rate

    low tax

    foreign direct investment incentives

    ease of immigration & FT to work here

    etc etc etc

    all the above will put on pressure to local market ... but that's how things work

    the big question is how fast govt react and how "smart" are they with all the information they got to plan ahead

    At risk of sounding like a broken record player that keeps repeating the same message ad nauseam, Singapore is a tiny boat in a sea of much larger vessels.

    Without a unique proposition/economic tool that allows us to stand out, we are always at risk of becoming fodder for the governments of larger countries or even the larger hedge funds that have international reach.

    We tread carefully and diplomatically to avoid stepping on the toes of the bigger boys and at the same time avoiding appearing as easy prey to the predatory funds that constantly prowl the oceans for coordinated short-selling.

    So far we have been lucky but how long can our good fortune last?

    Our unique proposition has been a strong team of leaders found in the old guard. Charismatic, knowledgeable, intelligent and well-connected, the old guard served as our primary safeguard against malice coming from abroad.�

    Today as the old guard passes on one by one, we need to quickly find a replacement unique proposition. And we have yet to find it.


  • 14 December 2014 - 12:19 PM
    Jamesc

    Good for business on easy money lending by banks?

    Think of it this way, if there is no TDSR, I believe prices would have sky rocketed a lot higher then it is currently now, or worst, the bubble might already burst. It maybe good for short term or for medium term, but it is defiantly not good for long term when people wake up the senses base on false hope that they can buy and sell�at higher price at already very expensive housing prices.

    What about if there is interest rate rise, those that take loan that far exceeded what they could afford because of rise of interest payment, they will be force to default on loan, or worst lose job because of economy downturn and still have such a huge loan to pay off, good for long term�business meh?? �

    So TDSR to stay forever is good, as it forces bank to have no choice and not running mistake of reckless lending be it during good economy or bad economy.

    You are right.�

    TDSR is good for business especially banks.

    If people cannot pay back their mortgages the banks fail.

    This is the reason Lehman failed in the first place.

    :D��


  • 15 December 2014 - 12:43 AM
    CH_CO

    At risk of sounding like a broken record player that keeps repeating the same message ad nauseam, Singapore is a tiny boat in a sea of much larger vessels.

    Without a unique proposition/economic tool that allows us to stand out, we are always at risk of becoming fodder for the governments of larger countries or even the larger hedge funds that have international reach.

    We tread carefully and diplomatically to avoid stepping on the toes of the bigger boys and at the same time avoiding appearing as easy prey to the predatory funds that constantly prowl the oceans for coordinated short-selling.

    So far we have been lucky but how long can our good fortune last?

    Our unique proposition has been a strong team of leaders found in the old guard. Charismatic, knowledgeable, intelligent and well-connected, the old guard served as our primary safeguard against malice coming from abroad.�

    Today as the old guard passes on one by one, we need to quickly find a replacement unique proposition. And we have yet to find it.

    Which is why , i am pretty skeptical of the current social political economy (google destep), well i warn of all this long long time ago , no one bothered . Many tell me all sort of bs , including one which told me that those MONTHLY REPORTS will be more than enough to "protect" against a potential "meltdown" in the regional credit .

    I don't know if they are farking stupid or is my england so poor that they simply cannot understand what i am trying to put across.

    There are many people like this around , many i know are patriotic, just only they don't wish to step up the plate as the world is their oyster , the self serving monkeys on the trees are throwing everything at them to protect themselves and no one willing to open up the reach neither have any will to listen to what others have to say. I can only say when the monkey king is down and when all those monkeys scatter , those which are willing to help will come back. This i am pretty sure.

    If they don't i will beg them to come back if i need to. Our country needs salesman , damn good ones to sell Singapore on the ideologies which will push us further forward , not paper chasing scholars which have never step out of the tree and venture in the jungle and use deep deep england to "convince" others. Non of them can do a proper speech without looking at their notes.

    Just look here , plenty of fellows tell me all sort bs , mixing global credit with local credit and some tell me all sort of crap on how good their MIK selections are when they fail to acknowledge the fact if one is capable they would probably be owning 3 instead of the pathetic "value" for money choice which i have time and time against proven to them that , in fact , they are cent wise and dollar stupid.

    In fact , even the so called educated ones which told me he was talking his masters failed to support his stance and prove to me based on a few hundred more monthly , i could be driving a conti instead of my fit. He has yet to prove me this point despite all those time i have given him.

    While i don't claim to be smarter than many , to me as long as i can make enough for myself by putting my ideas into action, i have already answered their queries. I am not good in my language , this i acknowledge but i compensate with deep thought which those smarter than me can understand. I don't expect everyone to like what i say , but i just say what i think and do , i don't think i need anyone to like me , i am not seeking this affection but more than that i seek to offer some opinions on how things "can" go.

    Many here accuse me of paraphasing all the time and selectively read whatever i said failing to understand what i am trying to put across as a whole yet accuse me of those very actions they too are doing. I don't deny i too do selective reading , never attempt to hide it.

    Many here preach but don't practice. I am worried , worried that things would only go further south , foreign investments have dried up and many don't even know , ask yourself a simple question , what value have you created for Singapore ?

    How much money have you brought into Singapore? What technological advancements have you done for people to come here and "learn" from you ,� how can one bring more ideology of what is to offer in Singapore where you can't find any where else. I don't see clowns asking these questions here , they tell me many years of up sure come down , expecting it to come back up after a few year but asked when and how ? ... no answer. LOL , ok thats all the rant i can think of , have a great evening,


    Edited by CH_CO, 15 December 2014 - 01:12 AM.

  • 15 December 2014 - 01:42 AM
    Thaiyotakamli


    You are right.�

    TDSR is good for business especially banks.

    If people cannot pay back their mortgages the banks fail.

    This is the reason Lehman failed in the first place.

    :D��


    It depends

    During good economy TDSR restrict them and bank lose many potential customers


    However during downturn the TDSR will protect the bank better and will have less bad debts
  • 15 December 2014 - 01:43 AM
    Thaiyotakamli

    "Finance is a gun, Politics is the trigger"


    "Rolex is the gunpowder" :D
  • 15 December 2014 - 01:47 AM
    CH_CO
    Just a thought which I am thinking out loud if I am a foreigner or foriegn entity , would I have any problems if I already made a pile the past few years in cash and now I have a couple of properties which I think might lose me money ., should I just bail out and take the cash I have and move it elsewhere before it crashes and default on the other properties which I got caught in , anyway the most I don't go back to that small island which has nothing , they used to have a pretty nice beach at east coast and chose to let it rot now.

    Well no issues ,I made my piles time to move on ,good bye?

    Edited by CH_CO, 15 December 2014 - 01:55 AM.

  • 15 December 2014 - 07:31 AM
    Throttle2

    Just a thought which I am thinking out loud if I am a foreigner or foriegn entity , would I have any problems if I already made a pile the past few years in cash and now I have a couple of properties which I think might lose me money ., should I just bail out and take the cash I have and move it elsewhere before it crashes and default on the other properties which I got caught in , anyway the most I don't go back to that small island which has nothing , they used to have a pretty nice beach at east coast and chose to let it rot now.

    Well no issues ,I made my piles time to move on ,good bye?



    Wah lau your england no good lah, thats why.
    My england too good also got problem.

    In singapore, you must tell them what they want to hear or they wont listen.
    That means using appropriate standard of england

    Wahahahahahaha
  • 15 December 2014 - 07:58 AM
    OmOm

    Just a thought which I am thinking out loud if I am a foreigner or foriegn entity , would I have any problems if I already made a pile the past few years in cash and now I have a couple of properties which I think might lose me money ., should I just bail out and take the cash I have and move it elsewhere before it crashes and default on the other properties which I got caught in , anyway the most I don't go back to that small island which has nothing , they used to have a pretty nice beach at east coast and chose to let it rot now.

    Well no issues ,I made my piles time to move on ,good bye?

    To the typical investor which forms the majority, it is all about the growth story of whatever is being invested in.

    As long as the prospects of growth are good, the investors will continue to pump in the monies.

    Once the growth story is shown to be completely non-viable, investors will leave on the next departing plane.

    Singapore was the poster boy (girl) of growth. From fishing village to metropolitan city-state, the transformation has been rapid and unrelenting. The phenomenal growth attracted attention of investors all over the world and many came to set up shop or to invest in properties/equities over the last few decades.

    Today as we sit comfortable, our third/fourth generation of children generally happy with their lot, we do not realise that the growth story momentum is at its weakest (except for when we first separated from Malaysia in 1965).

    Investors buy into the potential for future gains, not for swanky-looking buildings and landscapes that are present right now unless these contribute to the potential for a good growth story.

    What is the growth story of Singapore as we move into the next phase of nation-building?

    We are waiting for the architect to step out and paint us that clear and astounding yet confidence-inspiring plan, as Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Keng Swee, et al had done in the early years.


  • 15 December 2014 - 08:15 AM
    CH_CO
    To me I think it would be easier if they removed the social levels they surround themselves within, changes involved pain and sacrifices which many have never experienced , racial riots , bombing etc etc.

    No major changes ever done without a major crisis , to me one might happen in the next few years and I am sensing our leadership trying to bail out already.

    As I said , prosecution is what worries on singaporeans and never foriegners.ehich is why I said we need a damn good salesman to pitch whatever crap which we can think of and make it a reality.

    Edited by CH_CO, 15 December 2014 - 08:17 AM.

  • 15 December 2014 - 09:16 AM
    Chucky2007
    Wow you are philosophical man... Deep..
  • 15 December 2014 - 09:39 AM
    CH_CO

    Wah lau your england no good lah, thats why.
    My england too good also got problem.

    In singapore, you must tell them what they want to hear or they wont listen.
    That means using appropriate standard of england

    Wahahahahahaha

    No choice, my parents didn't send me to simi speech and drama class, I spent most of the time on the streets talking to ah bengs and uncles and aunties and catching spiders and grass hoppers.

    My parents and peers were surprised that I even finished school less to say degree and up

    Edited by CH_CO, 15 December 2014 - 09:43 AM.

  • 15 December 2014 - 09:47 AM
    Galantspeedz

    anyone bought at auction before?
    i feel hard to get good deal at auction leh
    big boys and crocodile all aiming to get and sell to make a quick buck

    there is...but everyone deems good deal differently....lol


  • 15 December 2014 - 10:00 AM
    Duckduck

    there is...but everyone deems good deal differently....lol

    if go for auction, the only ones worth bothering are bank mortgage sales, the private ones are usually waste of time test water only. if u see the list mostly private auction, no need to go down.


  • 15 December 2014 - 05:11 PM
    CH_CO

    good stuff bank eat , won't give you any chance to take one.


  • 15 December 2014 - 09:12 PM
    Mercury1

    Never been to an auction before, for those bank mortgage properties how far off are the bidded price versus last transacted on URA?

    if go for auction, the only ones worth bothering are bank mortgage sales, the private ones are usually waste of time test water only. if u see the list mostly private auction, no need to go down.


  • 16 December 2014 - 11:38 AM
    Wyfitms

    Good analysis. I also agree that the bull market has lasted too long and that means we have lots of over stretched investors, the smart ones got out earlier, the average one are trying to get out now and there are those who are still in denial.

    To me, the direction is clear lah, govt wants price to correct and I think they won't withdraw the CM till a meaningful correction, the question is how much? I also no guru and I could be wrong but I am of the view that prices, asset and equity, have raced ahead of fundamentals due to QE and the game cannot go on forever.

    many people say that real demand has fallen

    if that is the case, why is CM not withdrawn (which the developers are hoping for)

    why is there a need to intervene and curb demand?

    i suppose the answer is that demand is still freaking strong

    removing CM is like unleashing the hordes of investors/ speculators rushing in to push the markets to new highs�

    that is just my lowly opinion. feel free to disregard as rubbish since as i only sell, not buy property� [:)]


    To the typical investor which forms the majority, it is all about the growth story of whatever is being invested in.

    As long as the prospects of growth are good, the investors will continue to pump in the monies.

    Once the growth story is shown to be completely non-viable, investors will leave on the next departing plane.

    Singapore was the poster boy (girl) of growth. From fishing village to metropolitan city-state, the transformation has been rapid and unrelenting. The phenomenal growth attracted attention of investors all over the world and many came to set up shop or to invest in properties/equities over the last few decades.

    Today as we sit comfortable, our third/fourth generation of children generally happy with their lot, we do not realise that the growth story momentum is at its weakest (except for when we first separated from Malaysia in 1965).

    Investors buy into the potential for future gains, not for swanky-looking buildings and landscapes that are present right now unless these contribute to the potential for a good growth story.

    What is the growth story of Singapore as we move into the next phase of nation-building?

    We are waiting for the architect to step out and paint us that clear and astounding yet confidence-inspiring plan, as Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Keng Swee, et al had done in the early years.

    when the picture has been painted clearly, prices would have gone up another 100%

    so better to place your bets now and buy while it is cheap, i'd say �

    [thumbsup][laugh]


  • 16 December 2014 - 11:59 AM
    Bacteria83


    many people say that real demand has fallen

    if that is the case, why is CM not withdrawn (which the developers are hoping for)

    why is there a need to intervene and curb demand?

    i suppose the answer is that demand is still freaking strong

    removing CM is like unleashing the hordes of investors/ speculators rushing in to push the markets to new highs�

    that is just my lowly opinion. feel free to disregard as rubbish since as i only sell, not buy property� [:)]


    when the picture has been painted clearly, prices would have gone up another 100%

    so better to place your bets now and buy while it is cheap, i'd say �

    [thumbsup][laugh]

    CM not remove maybe is like why cpf is not remove?
    Cpf minimum sum has cost PAP to lose more vote why they nv remove?

    If i remember correctly gov said they trying to create soft landing.
    Cpf not remove cos scare ppl anyhow spend with lump sum of money and wont have enough for ur golden age (actually gov dont want our potential problem to be their problem)
    CM not remove cost scare ppl anyhow chiong in and buy to speculate.

    CM is to deter speculation not true home ownership.

    Bro if u gov do not do anything to stop or ease property speculation, sg may end up like blumount.

    Feel free to disregard as rubbish too, since im not buying and selling too :)

    Edited by Bacteria83, 16 December 2014 - 12:05 PM.

  • 16 December 2014 - 12:15 PM
    Stepspro

    many people say that real demand has fallen

    if that is the case, why is CM not withdrawn (which the developers are hoping for)

    why is there a need to intervene and curb demand?

    i suppose the answer is that demand is still freaking strong

    removing CM is like unleashing the hordes of investors/ speculators rushing in to push the markets to new highs�

    that is just my lowly opinion. feel free to disregard as rubbish since as i only sell, not buy property� [:)]


    when the picture has been painted clearly, prices would have gone up another 100%

    so better to place your bets now and buy while it is cheap, i'd say �

    [thumbsup][laugh]

    Yarlor.... everybody wait... wait ... wait...

    sekali the ship goes then they kpkb blame ah gong again.

    .

    .

    Feel free to disregard as rubbish too, since im not buying and selling too! [laugh]


  • 16 December 2014 - 02:37 PM
    Wt_know
    demand plunge 50% !!!
    mai spread fear ... mai spread fear ... lol

    i think demand is there but many cannot afford after the TDSR ... hehe

    Attached Thumbnails

    • image.jpg

    Edited by Wt_know, 16 December 2014 - 02:37 PM.

  • 16 December 2014 - 02:37 PM
    Wyfitms

    CM not remove maybe is like why cpf is not remove?
    Cpf minimum sum has cost PAP to lose more vote why they nv remove?

    If i remember correctly gov said they trying to create soft landing.
    Cpf not remove cos scare ppl anyhow spend with lump sum of money and wont have enough for ur golden age (actually gov dont want our potential problem to be their problem)
    CM not remove cost scare ppl anyhow chiong in and buy to speculate.

    CM is to deter speculation not true home ownership.

    Bro if u gov do not do anything to stop or ease property speculation, sg may end up like blumount.

    Feel free to disregard as rubbish too, since im not buying and selling too :)

    Scared that ppl anyhow speculate? U mean that there are still speculative demand? i thought all dried up due to the oversupply?� [laugh]

    real demand don;t even need to say, we are going to have 7-10 million in SG�


  • 16 December 2014 - 02:57 PM
    Bacteria83


    Scared that ppl anyhow speculate? U mean that there are still speculative demand? i thought all dried up due to the oversupply?� [laugh]

    real demand don;t even need to say, we are going to have 7-10 million in SG�


    There will always be speculative demand.
    just like ppl contra stock no need really money but buy with credit.

    Thats the reason why ppl buy into iskandar. All one to buy and flip or rent for passive income but who do they sell and rent to?

    But we all here chit chat sing song nia, only time will tell :)
  • 16 December 2014 - 03:15 PM
    Duckduck

    good stuff bank eat , won't give you any chance to take one.

    banks arent allowed to hold properties which is why theyre auctioned or sold off... in 2009 crash, the earliest buyers werent the banks, it was some lawyers n individuals who knew abt the firesales n they gang up n makan n flip... i was pretty active back then so i know wat was going on...

    banks are really useless at timing property one, theyre either too conservative or too aggressive.


  • 16 December 2014 - 03:45 PM
    Voodooman


    many people say that real demand has fallen

    if that is the case, why is CM not withdrawn (which the developers are hoping for)

    why is there a need to intervene and curb demand?

    i suppose the answer is that demand is still freaking strong

    removing CM is like unleashing the hordes of investors/ speculators rushing in to push the markets to new highs�

    that is just my lowly opinion. feel free to disregard as rubbish since as i only sell, not buy property� [:)]

    [thumbsup][laugh]


    Becoz people were buying thinking real estate is a one direction bet? I thought CM is to prevent govt having to bail out everyone, from middle class to poor class, to developers to banks as if left alone could possibly lead to a full blown housing crisis. Seriously, prices are crazy and yield are crazier. I know what I can do with 1-2 million and it is definitely not property at the moment, only downside and limited upside.

    Demand? Real demand can only be seen when interest rate, supply, yield normalise. Seriously net yield of 2% is freaking real demand? But then, please feel free to disregard my opinion as rubbish as I have no intention to buy or sell.
  • 16 December 2014 - 03:58 PM
    Duckduck

    whole island rental mkt affected liao, just that since most singies own properties, not many dare to admit...

    i got 1 fren own a condo at bendemeer area, last time rental get $4000, now the only offer is $3300 n not even sure serious or not... thats almost 20% decline...

    some condo rents i track have reversed back to abt 2009 rents!!!!


    Edited by Duckduck, 16 December 2014 - 04:00 PM.

  • 16 December 2014 - 04:04 PM
    Sabian

    whole island rental mkt affected liao, just that since most singies own properties, not many dare to admit...

    i got 1 fren own a condo at bendemeer area, last time rental get $4000, now the only offer is $3300 n not even sure serious or not... thats almost 20% decline...

    some condo rents i track have reversed back to abt 2009 rents!!!!

    Let the shakeout continue for a few more years for the weak holders.

    Then maybe can see some rational sentiment return.


  • 16 December 2014 - 04:21 PM
    Stepspro

    whole island rental mkt affected liao, just that since most singies own properties, not many dare to admit...

    i got 1 fren own a condo at bendemeer area, last time rental get $4000, now the only offer is $3300 n not even sure serious or not... thats almost 20% decline...

    some condo rents i track have reversed back to abt 2009 rents!!!!

    Please tell IRAS.

    ... my property tax is still valued at 2013/2014 level... [bigcry]


  • 16 December 2014 - 04:32 PM
    Galantspeedz

    whole island rental mkt affected liao, just that since most singies own properties, not many dare to admit...

    i got 1 fren own a condo at bendemeer area, last time rental get $4000, now the only offer is $3300 n not even sure serious or not... thats almost 20% decline...

    some condo rents i track have reversed back to abt 2009 rents!!!!

    who you rent to also determines your rental price... hehe


  • 16 December 2014 - 04:34 PM
    Wt_know

    where is your shoebox also determines rental price

    cck condo rental hong kan liao ... hehe

    who you rent to also determines your rental price... hehe


    Edited by Wt_know, 16 December 2014 - 04:38 PM.

  • 16 December 2014 - 04:45 PM
    Throttle2


    many people say that real demand has fallen

    if that is the case, why is CM not withdrawn (which the developers are hoping for)

    why is there a need to intervene and curb demand?

    i suppose the answer is that demand is still freaking strong

    removing CM is like unleashing the hordes of investors/ speculators rushing in to push the markets to new highs�

    that is just my lowly opinion. feel free to disregard as rubbish since as i only sell, not buy property� [:)]


    when the picture has been painted clearly, prices would have gone up another 100%

    so better to place your bets now and buy while it is cheap, i'd say �

    [thumbsup][laugh]

    Correct, quite lowly and should be disregarded as rubbish,

    Who say real demand has fallen?
    Real demand pertains to those buying their first homes and those who are buying for own use.
    That has not fallen for sure. That grows with population. However high prices and CMs have naturally forced real demand to move a notch lower. But real demand is aways there lah.

    What you mean is speculative demand, not real demand. Speculative demand is fueled largely by future prices and financial capability to enter market. Of course, the govt has to keep CMs there to prevent this demand. Speculative demand has been quashed by the policies, yes, and correctly so. There are many people who cannot afford but want to buy Porsches, Mercs, and BMWs too. Is that real demand? Until now you still talking rubbish? Muayahahahahaa

    demand plunge 50% !!!
    mai spread fear ... mai spread fear ... lol

    i think demand is there but many cannot afford after the TDSR ... hehe


    Wooooohoooooo! Yeah!!

    Edited by Throttle2, 16 December 2014 - 04:43 PM.

  • 16 December 2014 - 04:53 PM
    Throttle2
    Oh yes, in that case, plse dont take my opinion as lowly or rubbish.

    Yarlor.... everybody wait... wait ... wait...
    sekali the ship goes then they kpkb blame ah gong again.

    .
    .
    Feel free to disregard as rubbish too, since im not buying and selling too! [laugh]


    You for sure is rubbish lah. No need to say.
  • 16 December 2014 - 05:05 PM
    Stepspro

    Oh yes, in that case, plse dont take my opinion as lowly or rubbish.

    You for sure is rubbish lah. No need to say.

    Eh... you no parents to teach you one ah...

    Any how call people rubbish...

    kurang ajar. ????


  • 16 December 2014 - 05:08 PM
    SuPerBoRed
    Really loathe to wade in... But please bros.. Here to share views... No one is right/wrong all the time.. Everyone learns... No need to name call each other one la...

    And that..imho goes both direction
  • 16 December 2014 - 05:16 PM
    Jamesc

    Please tell IRAS.

    ... my property tax is still valued at 2013/2014 level... [bigcry]

    Yeah mine too.

    Someone please tell IRAS.

    Too bad I think they don't read MCF.

    :D


  • 16 December 2014 - 05:45 PM
    Wyfitms

    Correct, quite lowly and should be disregarded as rubbish,

    Who say real demand has fallen?
    Real demand pertains to those buying their first homes and those who are buying for own use.
    That has not fallen for sure. That grows with population. However high prices and CMs have naturally forced real demand to move a notch lower. But real demand is aways there lah.

    What you mean is speculative demand, not real demand. Speculative demand is fueled largely by future prices and financial capability to enter market. Of course, the govt has to keep CMs there to prevent this demand. Speculative demand has been quashed by the policies, yes, and correctly so. There are many people who cannot afford but want to buy Porsches, Mercs, and BMWs too. Is that real demand? Until now you still talking rubbish? Muayahahahahaa

    just by looking at demand alone is like looking at one side of the coin. So what if real demand grows? if the city cannot keep up with the supply, prices also under pressure to increase�

    real demand can turn into investment or speculative demand vice versa depending on the market situation

    anyway demand is always at point in time. and right now at this point in time, investment demand is still rocket high hence the need for CM to prevent prices from reaching unsustainable levels

    with so many interventions, prices only dipped 5% this year... the fact that prices moved marginally with huge drop in volume suggests that many are waiting at sidelines to get their 2nd or 3rd properties

    the moment CM is released, all hell will break loose

    even if CM is kept, the standoff will still last for another few years� [:)]


    Eh... you no parents to teach you one ah...

    Any how call people rubbish...

    kurang ajar. ????

    [laugh][laugh]


    demand plunge 50% !!!
    mai spread fear ... mai spread fear ... lol

    i think demand is there but many cannot afford after the TDSR ... hehe

    sibei sian.. volume can drop by 50% but how come price only move 5% nia

    [furious]


    Becoz people were buying thinking real estate is a one direction bet? I thought CM is to prevent govt having to bail out everyone, from middle class to poor class, to developers to banks as if left alone could possibly lead to a full blown housing crisis. Seriously, prices are crazy and yield are crazier. I know what I can do with 1-2 million and it is definitely not property at the moment, only downside and limited upside.

    Demand? Real demand can only be seen when interest rate, supply, yield normalise. Seriously net yield of 2% is freaking real demand? But then, please feel free to disregard my opinion as rubbish as I have no intention to buy or sell.

    CM is not really to prevent govt from bailing everyone out

    if they have real intention to bail ppl from committing financial suicide, they would have intervene and stop the man on the street from investing in overseas condo long ago

    CM is the govt's desperate last resort to contain the booming market for which part of the root cause was due to their own policy failure between 2003-2007

    anyway, the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, so dun be greedy and wait too long, in case miss the boat again hor� :D (now already corrected a whopping 5%)�


  • 16 December 2014 - 06:12 PM
    Bacteria83
    How well the property market perform,really depend on how well Singapore as a whole will perform in the next 5 to 10yrs.

    There is always a trade off. Ppl want opposition to form the main spine they must accept a slower population growth, resulting in slower economical growth. Hopefully some smart person can come up with a better solution.

    The recent umbrella standoff in HK is gd for SG.
  • 16 December 2014 - 06:21 PM
    CH_CO

    Cm release who come and buy ? Sharks only , end up they will repeat whatever they have done , push it to sky high and run while they can , letting the residents pick up the pieces .

    How naive can some be??


  • 16 December 2014 - 09:05 PM
    Throttle2


    just by looking at demand alone is like looking at one side of the coin. So what if real demand grows? if the city cannot keep up with the supply, prices also under pressure to increase�

    real demand can turn into investment or speculative demand vice versa depending on the market situation

    anyway demand is always at point in time. and right now at this point in time, investment demand is still rocket high hence the need for CM to prevent prices from reaching unsustainable levels

    with so many interventions, prices only dipped 5% this year... the fact that prices moved marginally with huge drop in volume suggests that many are waiting at sidelines to get their 2nd or 3rd properties

    the moment CM is released, all hell will break loose

    even if CM is kept, the standoff will still last for another few years� [:)]



    [laugh][laugh]


    sibei sian.. volume can drop by 50% but how come price only move 5% nia

    [furious]


    CM is not really to prevent govt from bailing everyone out

    if they have real intention to bail ppl from committing financial suicide, they would have intervene and stop the man on the street from investing in overseas condo long ago

    CM is the govt's desperate last resort to contain the booming market for which part of the root cause was due to their own policy failure between 2003-2007

    anyway, the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, so dun be greedy and wait too long, in case miss the boat again hor� :D (now already corrected a whopping 5%)�



    5%?

    Ok i shant laugh.
    Lets just say the market you are talking about aint the market , i am talking about.
  • 16 December 2014 - 09:11 PM
    Throttle2

    Eh... you no parents to teach you one ah...
    Any how call people rubbish...


    kurang ajar. ????


    You ask people to feel free to disregard as rubbish.
    Now you prata ?
  • 16 December 2014 - 09:59 PM
    Mockngbrd
    Mai spread fear mai spread fear! CHRISTMAS coming spread good cheer!
  • 16 December 2014 - 10:07 PM
    Voodooman


    just by looking at demand alone is like looking at one side of the coin. So what if real demand grows? if the city cannot keep up with the supply, prices also under pressure to increase�

    real demand can turn into investment or speculative demand vice versa depending on the market situation

    anyway demand is always at point in time. and right now at this point in time, investment demand is still rocket high hence the need for CM to prevent prices from reaching unsustainable levels

    with so many interventions, prices only dipped 5% this year... the fact that prices moved marginally with huge drop in volume suggests that many are waiting at sidelines to get their 2nd or 3rd properties

    the moment CM is released, all hell will break loose

    even if CM is kept, the standoff will still last for another few years� [:)]



    [laugh][laugh]


    sibei sian.. volume can drop by 50% but how come price only move 5% nia

    [furious]


    CM is not really to prevent govt from bailing everyone out

    if they have real intention to bail ppl from committing financial suicide, they would have intervene and stop the man on the street from investing in overseas condo long ago

    CM is the govt's desperate last resort to contain the booming market for which part of the root cause was due to their own policy failure between 2003-2007

    anyway, the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, so dun be greedy and wait too long, in case miss the boat again hor� :D (now already corrected a whopping 5%)�


    Leverage kills, both man in the street, banks and the economy.

    Policy failure? Agree but supply has caught up since, so don't be so fixated on demand, look at supply as well. If expectation of price increase is lacking, doubt many will invest with yield of 2%. With resident population of 4 million plus (exclude FW and domestic helpers) and HDB and private residential stock of more than 1.5 million units and assuming average 3.5 pax per unit, we are already in oversupply situation, it is very evident. Vacancy should exceed 10% soon and when it does and / or is close to those level, I may consider buying, if And only if I strike Toto.

    Well, there are much better investment opportunities with the type of d/p and stamp duties required for RE investment these days.
  • 16 December 2014 - 10:08 PM
    frenchfly

    deleted


    Edited by frenchfly, 16 December 2014 - 10:17 PM.

  • 16 December 2014 - 11:38 PM
    Bavarian

    Oh yes, in that case, plse dont take my opinion as lowly or rubbish.

    You for sure is rubbish lah. No need to say.


    Eh... you no parents to teach you one ah...
    Any how call people rubbish...


    kurang ajar. ????



    Let's not get personal and call each other names.
  • 16 December 2014 - 11:51 PM
    Sabian
    The market now is only meant for 1st home buyers.

    They are the only segment who will not get penalised they buy.

    So got oversupply or not?

    HDB already reduced their building program...
  • 17 December 2014 - 09:41 AM
    Wyfitms

    5%?

    Ok i shant laugh.
    Lets just say the market you are talking about aint the market , i am talking about.

    yes, you are right there

    different markets we are talking about

    I am referring to private residential market� [:)]

    Dec 12, 2014
    � �

    Prices of private properties in Singapore fell by 4.79 percent during the first nine months of 2014, compared to an annual increase of 2.1 percent in the same period last year, revealed a report from Global Property Guide.

    On a quarterly basis, prices of private units dipped by 0.38 percent in Q3 from the previous three months.

    At the same time, residential demand in the city-state is dropping. The report stated that sales of housing units plunged 38.6 percent to 1,465 units in the third quarter from last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

    Singapore�s economy is also slowing, with forecasts of 2.96 percent growth this year, down from 3.9 percent in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Of the 10 Asian markets tracked in the report, only Singapore and China saw house prices decline during the year.

    Image source: Tokyodcs; Wikimedia Commons


    Leverage kills, both man in the street, banks and the economy.

    Policy failure? Agree but supply has caught up since, so don't be so fixated on demand, look at supply as well. If expectation of price increase is lacking, doubt many will invest with yield of 2%. With resident population of 4 million plus (exclude FW and domestic helpers) and HDB and private residential stock of more than 1.5 million units and assuming average 3.5 pax per unit, we are already in oversupply situation, it is very evident. Vacancy should exceed 10% soon and when it does and / or is close to those level, I may consider buying, if And only if I strike Toto.

    Well, there are much better investment opportunities with the type of d/p and stamp duties required for RE investment these days.

    i agree that there are better instruments giving better risk-reward

    however, real estate will still be in demand even with highly compressed yield as buyers are looking forward to long term capital appreciation

    As for supply, i am not so sure if it has caught up, or if it will be oversupply in the next 5 yrs. I think your 3.5 person per unit is a little generous


  • 17 December 2014 - 09:50 AM
    Galantspeedz

    eh... here not about exchange rate meh?

    I tot property chat is the other thread?

    2 camps still going at each other... aiya... both will ultimately be right... but at different timing only... so both camps will get to laugh at each other....

    so what's the point of arguing....


  • 17 December 2014 - 09:51 AM
    Jamesc

    Dec 12, 2014
    � �

    Prices of private properties in Singapore fell by 4.79 percent during the first nine months of 2014, compared to an annual increase of 2.1 percent in the same period last year, revealed a report from Global Property Guide.

    On a quarterly basis, prices of private units dipped by 0.38 percent in Q3 from the previous three months.

    At the same time, residential demand in the city-state is dropping. The report stated that sales of housing units plunged 38.6 percent to 1,465 units in the third quarter from last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

    Singapore�s economy is also slowing, with forecasts of 2.96 percent growth this year, down from 3.9 percent in 2013, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

    Of the 10 Asian markets tracked in the report, only Singapore and China saw house prices decline during the year.


    I like your posts because it is support by hard facts.

    It is so much more constructive than� - "I feel the market is coming down

    and my opinions always fantastic and your opinions are always rubbish

    so I must be right and you must be always wrong."

    I heard this saying many times - "Please don't let the facts get in the way of a

    good arguement." However I have�never followed it. Other people

    that like to please feel free to carry on.

    :D


    Edited by Jamesc, 17 December 2014 - 09:52 AM.

  • 17 December 2014 - 09:54 AM
    Stepspro


    Let's not get personal and call each other names.

    Yes Sir!


  • 17 December 2014 - 09:57 AM
    Jamesc

    so what's the point of arguing....

    When no one listens to you and you just need

    to be heard and you need to feel�you are right

    and prove to everyone how smart you are.

    Then people will come here and�post.

    The market will come down and when it does

    they faster come here and shout, I was right,

    I am very smart, I predicted correctly,

    I am a genius and my posts are fantastic

    and your posts are rubbish.

    :D����


  • 17 December 2014 - 10:01 AM
    Jamesc


    Let's not get personal and call each other names.

    Depends on what kind of names lah.

    Names like genius, smart guy, very intelligent person,�

    good looking, handsome outside and beautiful lesbian

    inside. These kind of names are most welcome.�

    :D


  • 17 December 2014 - 10:07 AM
    Stepspro

    I like your posts because it is support by hard facts.

    It is so much more constructive than� - "I feel the market is coming down

    and my opinions always fantastic and your opinions are always rubbish

    so I must be right and you must be always wrong."

    I heard this saying many times - "Please don't let the facts get in the way of a

    good arguement." However I have�never followed it. Other people

    that like to please feel free to carry on.

    :D

    Sir... you forgot 1 Law.

    Buy on rumour, sell on confirmation.

    Should be applicable to property as well.

    [laugh]


  • 17 December 2014 - 10:12 AM
    Jamesc

    Sir... you forgot 1 Law.

    Buy on rumour, sell on confirmation.

    Should be applicable to property as well.

    [laugh]

    Haha!

    I have no money to buy, please lend me some. [thumbsup]

    If we buy on rumour and what if the rumour is wrong?

    :D


  • 17 December 2014 - 10:15 AM
    Galantspeedz

    When no one listens to you and you just need

    to be heard and you need to feel�you are right

    and prove to everyone how smart you are.

    Then people will come here and�post.

    The market will come down and when it does

    they faster come here and shout, I was right,

    I am very smart, I predicted correctly,

    I am a genius and my posts are fantastic

    and your posts are rubbish.

    :D����

    let it go... let it go........ (to the tune of Frozen)

    there are alot different characters in forum....


  • 17 December 2014 - 10:17 AM
    SuPerBoRed

    Private home prices down almost 5% in 2014

    Dec 12, 2014

    Honestly mate... i wld prefer to take propertyguru's reports with a pinch of salt considering they have vested interest... �

    they failed to point out the 4.79% drop is largely contributed by luxury house pricing plunge over the course of the year... normal houses decline is not that substantial due to stronger holding power..�


  • 17 December 2014 - 10:29 AM
    Jamesc

    let it go... let it go........ (to the tune of Frozen)

    there are alot different characters in forum....

    This forum also acts as a pressure release valve.

    It is better that people come here and post

    I am right, I am right, I am very smart

    than do something silly that harms themselves

    or even worse others.

    This is a great forum.

    :D


  • 17 December 2014 - 11:07 AM
    Wyfitms

    I like your posts because it is support by hard facts.

    It is so much more constructive than� - "I feel the market is coming down

    and my opinions always fantastic and your opinions are always rubbish

    so I must be right and you must be always wrong."

    I heard this saying many times - "Please don't let the facts get in the way of a

    good arguement." However I have�never followed it. Other people

    that like to please feel free to carry on.

    :D

    Cannot really blame them too, i am also guilty of that sometimes

    I sold all my stocks last year when i thought it was very high

    it dropped for a while and now it is back slightly higher

    but i have to rationalize and justify my own actions, and keep telling all my friends that the market will tank very soon, and i was right to sell last year. Otherwise i will have to admit that i made a mistake� [:(]


    Honestly mate... i wld prefer to take propertyguru's reports with a pinch of salt considering they have vested interest... �

    they failed to point out the 4.79% drop is largely contributed by luxury house pricing plunge over the course of the year... normal houses decline is not that substantial due to stronger holding power..�

    yes u are right, the luxury market dropped more than 5%

    hence using simple math, it means that normal housing prices have actually gone up this year!


    When no one listens to you and you just need

    to be heard and you need to feel�you are right

    and prove to everyone how smart you are.

    Then people will come here and�post.

    The market will come down and when it does

    they faster come here and shout, I was right,

    I am very smart, I predicted correctly,

    I am a genius and my posts are fantastic

    and your posts are rubbish.

    :D����

    [laugh][laugh]


    eh... here not about exchange rate meh?

    I tot property chat is the other thread?

    2 camps still going at each other... aiya... both will ultimately be right... but at different timing only... so both camps will get to laugh at each other....

    so what's the point of arguing....

    this thread off topic for very long liao

    point of arguing is to laugh at each other lah, at some point in time

    and i feel sibei shiok that i am right (after waiting for 5 yrs)


  • 17 December 2014 - 11:31 AM
    Duckduck

    Mai spread fear mai spread fear! CHRISTMAS coming spread good cheer!

    theres nothing to spread when its a fact... just look at the URA rental caveats n u can see most condos rents dipping liao. the earlier this happens the earlier the recovery.

    the later the crash, the later the CMs get removed, so u better hope crash faster so garmen no choice remove CMs IMO :D


    Edited by Duckduck, 17 December 2014 - 11:35 AM.

  • 17 December 2014 - 12:03 PM
    Enye
    Wah everybody so sensitive when talking about their own money

    Lucky I peasant only have a hdb to stay in

    No extra $$ to invest no stress

  • 17 December 2014 - 12:29 PM
    Duckduck

    i like the way someone put it in this thread in a pm to me

    'here folks are masturbating each other for self comfort or otherwise..'

    y not fingering each other? lol


  • 17 December 2014 - 01:02 PM
    Bavarian

    y not fingering each other? lol

    Porker! Porker!


  • 17 December 2014 - 01:35 PM
    Porker

    i like the way someone put it in this thread in a pm to me

    'here folks are masturbating each other for self comfort or otherwise..'


    Must be that pundek Turboflat4
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