Bro Enye is saying...
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After he sells for 1 million, Minister T2's CM of 50% downpayment for all HDB properties larger than 3-rm flat and all private properties kick in.
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Then he just needs to use another 500K to buy another property that is probably�valued at�a million now. 500K keep in pocket plus another one fully paid or 50% paid. All those in his shoes can retire straightaway.
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Good for Singapore?
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& buy another for 1m
Asian investors in New Zealand project lose legal bid
PUBLISHED DEC 1, 2015, 5:00 AM SGT
109 Singaporeans, Malaysians stung for $33m on top of failing to recover deposits totalling $9m
A group of 109 mostly Singaporean and Malaysian investors who bought apartments in New Zealand lost a total of NZ$10 million (S$9.2 million) in deposits when the developer went bankrupt in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Not only did the investors fail in a legal bid to recover their deposits, they have now been stung for another NZ$36 million (S$33 million) in a counter-claim by the firm run by the receivers, to recover losses during the global financial crisis in Queenstown. In February, the High Court of New Zealand ruled that Kawarau Village Holdings was entitled to deposits and the NZ$36 million from the group of Asian investors.
This group - none New Zealanders - invested in the failed NZ$2 billion (S$1.8 billion) Kawarau Falls development in the South Island between 2006 and 2009.
Court documents said the investors bought off the plan units in Lakeside West and Kingston West, to be constructed on the shores of Lake Wakatipu, near Queenstown.
The buildings were to be Stage 1 of a three-stage integrated lakeside resort development known as Kawarau Falls Station, set to become a world-class resort with 13 hotels and serviced apartment complexes.
Conceived in 2005, the buildings were part of Auckland developer Nigel McKenna's ambitious project during a buoyant period for property development there. The units were marketed for sale in Asia by Austpac Investment Consultancy.
Singaporean Alex and wife Lisa went to Austpac's Collyer Quay sales launch in 2006. Under two weeks later they opted to buy a one-bedder Kingston West serviced unit for NZ$369,000. The pair, who asked to be known by only their first names, told The Straits Times they paid NZ$70,000 in deposits by 2007.
Housewife Lisa, 48, said: "We were promised a guaranteed rental yield of 6 per cent a year after completion. And we were told that we would be able to stay in the apartment for two to three days a year."
Businessman Alex, 50, added: "We wanted to own a second property but we could not afford one here. So we looked for one overseas... we thought the worst-case scenario would be to lose our deposits."
Another Singaporean who declined to be named said he travelled to Queenstown before sinking about NZ$150,000 in deposit for a two-bedroom apartment at Lakeside View, costing over NZ$1 million. He faces about NZ$700,000 in damages, and says he has already spent $30,000 in legal fees.
In 2009, the original developer Peninsula Road was bankrupted by the global financial crisis and placed in receivership in 2010.
Some time in 2011, the group of investors were served settlement notices by the receivers for their purchases - to pay up the full amount. But none of them settled, alleging that Kawarau Village has breached the contract they had signed.
In March 2012, Kawarau Village proceeded to cancel all of the sales and purchase agreements and forfeited the deposits. The group of investors jointly sought a court order for the return of their deposits. Last March, Kawarau Village started legal proceedings against Mr David Yuen who runs Austpac over a guarantee to buy the units if buyers defaulted.
Lawyer Phil Creagh of Anderson Creagh Lai, representing over 30 investors, told The Straits Times in an e-mail that fewer than 10 of them have come to a settlement with Kawarau Village. The rest have proceeded with a joint appeal against the judgment to be heard next August.
Dynamic outlook for local residential properties
By Ong Kah Seng / R'ST Research, The Edge Property | December 7, 2015 10:00 AM MYT
This year has been challenging for Singapore�s residential property market. Still, there are pockets of opportunities and silver linings. The government is also continually planning ahead with the new growth area Bidadari and the new Circle Line MRT stations� Cantonment, Keppel and Prince Edward.
Private residential properties felt major impact of TDSR
As 2015 draws to a close, it is time to reflect on the performance of residential properties in Singapore. For many people, the recap of the year seems to comprise mainly bitter times for the residential property market.
Since the implementation of the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) in mid-2013, demand for developer sales of private homes has been badly hit, especially in 2014 and 2015. There has also been a surge in private residential completions, which intensify leasing competition among landlords. According to monthly developer sale statistics released by URA, developers sold a total of about 6,620 private homes in the first 10 months of 2015. On average, developers sold only about 660 private homes in each month of 2015. This is slightly higher than the low figure in 2014 �where developers sold 630 private homes on average per month. This is a far cry from the usual healthy monthly developer sales of about 1,000 units per month prior to 2014. In 2013, on average, 1,230 private homes were sold by developers per month, while monthly average developer sales in 2012 were 1,820 units (see Chart 1).
In some months of 2015 in which developer sales increased significantly, such sales volume has usually been unsustainable. The most recent example was in July, when excellent sales were achieved for High Park Residences and contributed to high developer sales volume in July, but developer sales fell sharply thereafter. Although there was some improvement in private home sales by developers in October, it happened mainly before the seasonally quiet year-end sentiment set in.
October was before the year-end quieter vacations and festive period, so there were two mega projects launched before the quieter market times set in. The two projects were Thomson Impressions and Principal Garden, both in Rest of Central Region (RCR), which received good buyers� response. The success of Principal Garden and Thomson Impressions affirmed the attractiveness of RCR properties.
Opportunities and silver linings
Disappointing sales in 2015 notwithstanding, if we were to look at situations in perspective, there are good lessons that the hard times provide. There are also the bigger-picture perspective, revelations about pockets of opportunities and silver linings for local private residential properties.
RCR emerged as most resilient in prices and rents
Investors can clearly see that, in 2014 and 2015, homes in RCR stood out compared with Core Central Region (CCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR). Not only did the positive sales of Principal Garden and Thomson Impressions in October reflect keen buyers� interest for developer sales in RCR, it has been a more positive picture as well for RCR, in terms of secondary sales and rentals. In the first three quarters of 2015, rents of private residential properties dipped 3.4%, while such rents fell 0.3% in all of 2014. Rental fall of non-landed homes in RCR has been lowest in the past two years, compared with that of other regions.
Residential properties in RCR are considered the best of all worlds for tenants, as they are more affordable to rent than high-end homes in CCR, and most RCR developments are also mostly in niche localities. Compared with some suburban localities that are being rejuvenated and new growth corridors, the niche localities and quaint spots in RCR also took decades (or at least a decade) to establish, and such positioning is more well entrenched and resilient � whereas in recent years, various suburban localities were rapidly shaped up, and rejuvenated into new growth corridors featuring lifestyle concepts or key suburban regional centres.
RCR developments are fairly smallish developments with no more than 250 units each. Expatriates from Western countries and advanced Asian countries like such quiet living environment, compared with suburban condominium developments, which comprise many more units. During the hype for suburban condo purchases in 2010 to 2012, suburban condos were deemed to be good investment products since the quantum price is typically lower than a condo unit in RCR and CRC. The reality is that they offer limited product heterogeneity. Leasing demand is also weak, as landlords of suburban condos face competition from HDB flats in the vicinity.
Higher risks for blowout in private residential prices in 2016 but opportunistic buying will set in
A soft landing in prices is indeed painstakingly achieved, with prices correcting marginally since the implementation of the TDSR in 2013, till recently. According to the most recent property statistics released by URA, private residential property prices dipped an average of 1.3% q-o-q in3Q2015. This fall was larger than the 0.9% q-o-q price fall in 2Q2015, but all in all, it still reflected a soft landing in private residential property prices � as prices of overall private residential properties fell a total of 8% over the past eight quarters from 4Q2013 to 3Q2015.
In contrast, a quick look at history shows that private residential property prices fell a total of24.9% over four quarters (3Q2008 to 2Q2009) during the global financial crisis and 20% from 3Q2000 to 1Q2004. Prices fell 44.9% between 3Q1996 and 4Q1998, with the introduction of the May 1996 property cooling measures, followed by the Asian financial crisis.
A current soft landing in the correction of property prices indeed meets the best interests of various stakeholders in property � it better protects existing owners, where their asset(property) prices and wealth did not slump drastically, and developers are able to attain marginal profits though having to reduce prices slightly. Meanwhile, it is hoped that a reduction in property prices will improve the affordability for buyers, and prices are in general more realistic than before.
The prolonged sluggish demand clearly shows, however, that homebuyers will continue to be on the sidelines for value buys. A soft landing may therefore have put property prices sliding on a dragging and never ending negative air instead, unlike situations in which prices dip significantly, within short periods.
The usual prediction is that a soft landing in prices will persist in that every quarter will continue to see a dip of more than one percentage point in private home prices. But, as buyers� expectations have yet to be satisfied through a soft landing in prices, and given high unlaunched and unsold residential stock, we cannot assume that we will not see a blowout in property prices in 2016. If it happens, it is likely to be short-lived, where opportunity buying may quickly set in and uplift overall property buying sentiments � and prices could recover fast, following a major drop in price in a quarter or two.
Realistic buying behaviour to persist in 2016and lead to more sustainable buying decisions
It is not a completely sad picture for residential properties in 2015. There are projects that received strong buyers� interest, including North Park Residences, Botanique at Bartley, High Park Residences, Principal Garden and Thomson Impressions. Good sales were underpinned by either competitive pricing or special project selling points such as a mixed-use development concept or quaint residential enclaves.
The good side of the story regarding the rush for residential properties in 2015 is that it is very different from 2010 to 2013. Buyers who rush into getting a unit are increasingly more realistic and opportunistic. Those who snapped up private condos from 2010 to 2013 were, by contrast, more aspiration-driven. They invested in properties with a fairly substitutional mindset, that is, since interest rates were low then, investing in properties would be the best option. The current private residential headwinds have finally instilled a more realistic mindset among buyers and such buying decisions are more lasting than a herd mentality among homebuyers in deciding to buy a condo. Investors who purchased a lower-priced unit would find it easier to peg rents at attractive levels to achieve desired rental returns.
Surge in new completions offer ample cases of positive private property ownership experience
There has been a rise in new residential property completions since 2014. Islandwide, 10,329 private residential units (landed and non-landed) received their Temporary Occupation Permit in 2012 and 13,150 units received TOP in 2013. In 2014, 19,941 units received TOP. In 1Q2015 to 3Q2015 itself, 13,589 private residential units were completed; and a total of 18,977 units are expected to be completed in 2015. This resulted in a significant rise in the vacancy rate of private residential properties. It stood at 7.8% in both 2014 and 3Q2015, notably higher than 6.2% in 2013 (see Chart 2).
These newly completed condos are generally impressive in design and offer an exciting range of condo facilities. In addition, buyers feel a sense of pride and freshness in owning new units. Many owners still find much meaning in their newly completed suburban condos despite current private residential prices and rental headwinds. These factors will influence the decision of the HDB flat owner who intends to buy a private condo.
There is herd mentality among ordinary private condo buyers (that is, HDB upgraders), so HDB upgraders will also be influenced by how their peers cope with their new condo. While HDB upgraders may observe their peers experiencing difficulty in renting out their private condos and dealing with issues of maintenance and defects, they will also see how their peers take pride in the newly completed condo. New launches in 2016 are expected to be priced similarly to or lower than the launch price of new completions in 2014 and 2015. The competitive pricing of project launches may encourage buyers� interest. Developers that delivered projects in 2014 and 2015 and are prompt in addressing defects within the liability period will be considered quality developers, which will help move sales of their new projects from 2016.
Exciting plans for new estate and locality rejuvenation
While property sentiment may have been cool in 2015, there have been interesting longer term developments announced by the government. In November, it released the first batch of build-to-order (BTO) HDB flats in Bidadari, an area that many flat applicants are looking forward to, despite its �sad past�. In the longer term, those who own an HDB flats in Bidadari will also wish to upgrade within the vicinity, further supporting future resale demand for private homes in Potong Pasir. Investors will find the rentability of homes here higher than those in north eastern areas. While Potong Pasir is unlike the north eastern tip, Punggol, which feature a lifestyle waterway-living concept, there is a good blend of current housing and upcoming private housing, reflecting spontaneity of development in a well-located area. Three MRT stations � Keppel, Cantonment and Prince Edward � were recently announced for expected completion in 2025, benefiting properties in the areas.Attached Thumbnails
Mercs: You have been posting a lot of cut and paste articles on properties and they are of overwhelmingly positive nature. Do you have any agenda or purpose?
Bavarian: Nope, just that I see some postings of negative nature, so I post some positive news to balance the scale for a different view. If it's of concern, just let me know and I will stop posting.
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In that case then it is of no concern.�
articles are more interesting and informative than people like me shouting market up up up right?
our SGD lending is based on USD LIBOR... rising SIBOR lai liao lor. wont crash so fast... must until more pple lose jobs then u see prop crash... at d mo alot of pple income rising due to garmen induced labour crunch...
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my best guess is d following will al happen at same time, n as usual garmen always behind d curve:
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- sibor multiyear high
- garmen loosen FT policy n labour crunch reduces = more singies retrenched/fired = low or no income to service high sibor
- global stock peaks
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so d aftermath is another islandwide prop crash... high end prop will b affected less coz theyve already corrected alot... mass n mid will b last to putus as per above scenario
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The labour crunch is meant to encourage productivity measures and reduce congestion.
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The ultimate effect on property is not so clear. If labour has higher wages they can hold on to their homes or buy bigger ones.
Then again there is rising interests.
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If you believe interests will rise, then you should buy bank stocks especially the ones with big deposit base.
Of course "if"
Bavarian: Nope, just that I see some postings of negative nature, so I post some positive news to balance the scale for a different view. If it's of concern, just let me know and I will stop posting.
Bavarian: Nope, just that I see some postings of negative nature, so I post some positive news to balance the scale for a different view. If it's of concern, just let me know and I will stop posting.
i still saving up for my first home
it better be down all the way and stay down all the wayLet me share a real story.
few days ago one of my friend went to meet the MP session for appeal to get a certain HDB grant.
The person (won't name the person but definitely someone we know) told my friend to be Prudent and told them when bank valuation of your property fall you may need to do a top up.
My friend is getting a EC already put deposit.
My thought is did they know something we don't know?
If your friend need the grant desperately to close the financial gap, then it might be prudent to take his advice. Only your friend know but everyone knows the economy is slowing down and there might be more job losses next year, so need to have buffer to ride out the cycle. I doubt MP knows more than that unless he is also Lawrene Wong. hahaha...
If your friend need the grant desperately to close the financial gap, then it might be prudent to take his advice. Only your friend know but everyone knows the economy is slowing down and there might be more job losses next year, so need to have buffer to ride out the cycle. I doubt MP knows more than that unless he is also Lawrene Wong. hahaha...
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They do not really need the grant to finance it, but if the bank do call them to top up a lump sum it will definitely be a problem for them.
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They already placed a 5% deposit, so is bit like riding on tiger back can't get down.
I heard before that the local banks don't really practice this so long as the person is able to meet their repayments, ultimately if banks across started asking owners to top up it might lead to a cascading effect of mortgagees. Politically I don't think the govt would be too happy if banks started to shaft the local market.
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Foreign banks might be another story though, I think shitybank just might pull such stunts. Oh sorry I meant Citibank (fat fingers lazy to go back correct)
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Let me share a real story.
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few days ago one of my friend went to meet the MP session for appeal to get a certain HDB grant.
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The person (won't name the person but definitely someone we know) told my friend to be Prudent and told them when bank valuation of your property fall you may need to do a top up.
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My friend is getting a EC already put deposit.
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My thought is did they know something we don't know?
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I heard before that the local banks don't really practice this so long as the person is able to meet their repayments, ultimately if banks across started asking owners to top up it might lead to a cascading effect of mortgagees. Politically I don't think the govt would be too happy if banks started to shaft the local market.
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Foreign banks might be another story though, I think shitybank just might pull such stunts. Oh sorry I meant Citibank (fat fingers lazy to go back correct)
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Thats also what I told them. Normally local bank balance sheet consider strong wont anyhow chu stunt unless they are struggling as well.
Once this option trigger property price will fall even faster, banks will face with a higher amount of bad debts.
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The GOV motto seem to be prudent for this yrs, maybe a lot of people over stretch. I personally know two friends spending way above their means till this few months then woke up and start to slowly repay their credit card debts. It is a slow and pain process and the interest is really scary.
Edited by Bacteria83, 08 December 2015 - 09:18 PM.
My friend working in the banking sector says they have not adopted that path even though they are legally privileged to do that. Please note that this does not constitute financial advice so caveat emptor.
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Anyone who has encountered this in actuality�please do share.
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My logic is this. For example, if you have made an agreement with the bank for a property of 2mil with interests (loan of 1.5mil pending), and valuation drops by 50%, resulting in the net valuation of 1mil, why would the bank force your hand to have collected only 500K plus your property of only 1mil (valuation) IF you have continued to service your loan faithfully for 2mil total throughout?
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The same story goes with our cars. When we drive out�a new�car, the next day, it is probably worth 10% less and one year later 20% less. Imagine a 100% loan (last time), would the financial institution choose to retain a faithful paying customer one year later (supposing COE drops by 50%) or choose to repossess the car because technical valuation is now way below loan?
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Again, caveat emptor.
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Let me share a real story.
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few days ago one of my friend went to meet the MP session for appeal to get a certain HDB grant.
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The person (won't name the person but definitely someone we know) told my friend to be Prudent and told them when bank valuation of your property fall you may need to do a top up.
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My friend is getting a EC already put deposit.
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My thought is did they know something we don't know?
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Did a search and got this. Think only minority will be facing this possible scenario.
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http://blog.moneysma...market-crashes/ � 3. But there are people who may be at risk?Yes, there is a segment, to whom I refer to as those on the margin, where their Loan-To-Value ratios have become so lopsided that their banks do call for cash. These are usually owners of luxury properties that suffer the most price volatility. But this will not happen to the majority, because the mass market prices are not so volatile.
More importantly, it is not in the banks� interest to enforce this cash call on a wide scale, because most homeowners would probably have problems raising the cash. If people can�t pay the on-margin call, the banks will be forced to impose penalties on the homeowners. This could include repossessing and offloading the properties. On a large scale, this will force the property market into a further downward spiral.
More importantly, this means the banks would have to take a 20-30% valuation loss on their loan books as they repo and force the sale of properties. Can you imagine such a scenario? I cannot.
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Actually it would be better if one can share his or her view on the article posted, to add some value. I could have read those articles on my own on propertyguru.com or business times, don't need to come to a forum. Unless it is something we should all should know and is not yet in mainstream media.
Just my view, you don't have to take it. At least you are not posting nonsense.
In the same context, don't need to post updates on current COE or car prices, latest SG news or happenings around the world, I could get the info from tv news, newspapers or online.
None taken, can just agree to disagree, but with respect for each other's views :)
Those that are posting nonsense, will be banned?
I look at it as my contributing to the forum, keeps it fun and lively.
In the same context, don't need to post updates on current COE or car prices, latest SG news or happenings around the world, I could get the info from tv news, newspapers or online.
None taken, can just agree to disagree, but with respect for each other's views :)
Those that are posting nonsense, will be banned?
I rely on Mercs for the digest. Thanks!
They do not really need the grant to finance it, but if the bank do call them to top up a lump sum it will definitely be a problem for them.
They already placed a 5% deposit, so is bit like riding on tiger back can't get down.
Choose to ride tiger back, then dont be a cock and demand for the tiger to be declawed lah....
Banks dont operate on a monthly payment basis, in case you dont know.
Once the borrower's situation changes, income capability changes, everything changes already.
Banks with huge mortgage loan risk will chop first.
Aiyah, i better let CHCO do the dirty job of giving you all a lesson in housing loans and mortgages.
Muayhahahahaha
Let me share a real story.
few days ago one of my friend went to meet the MP session for appeal to get a certain HDB grant.
The person (won't name the person but definitely someone we know) told my friend to be Prudent and told them when bank valuation of your property fall you may need to do a top up.
My friend is getting a EC already put deposit.
My thought is did they know something we don't know?
They have been following this forum.They do not really need the grant to finance it, but if the bank do call them to top up a lump sum it will definitely be a problem for them.
They already placed a 5% deposit, so is bit like riding on tiger back can't get down.
Loss 5% pain. Loss everything die.I look at it as my contributing to the forum, keeps it fun and lively.
In the same context, don't need to post updates on current COE or car prices, latest SG news or happenings around the world, I could get the info from tv news, newspapers or online.
None taken, can just agree to disagree, but with respect for each other's views :)
Those that are posting nonsense, will be banned?
Give us a shout, PM or otherwise. We will look into it. This forum is too big to be patrolled by the few of us.Please don't.Dont know about you fellas but i know of more than several cases of banks repossessing mortgaged properties and bankrupting people who cant pay.
Banks dont operate on a monthly payment basis, in case you dont know.
Once the borrower's situation changes, income capability changes, everything changes already.
Banks with huge mortgage loan risk will chop first.
Aiyah, i better let CHCO do the dirty job of giving you all a lesson in housing loans and mortgages.
Muayhahahahaha
I have better things to do with my life than reading property websites.
I rely on Mercs for the digest. Thanks!
Meantime, here's one more just in, hot off the press
http://sbr.com.sg/re...d-spike-in-2016
8 DEC 15
Check out how home sales are projected to spike in 2016
Cooling measure lifting might be coming to town.
Singapore�s struggling property sector has been clamoring for cooling measure easing for as long as developers can remember, and 2016 might be their year.
According to analysts from Maybank Kim Eng, the city-state might be seeing a home-sales rebound next year.
�Singapore�s property market is past the worst of policy tightening, in our view,� Maybank Kim Eng said.
Maybank Kim Eng says Singapore�s home sales could improve by more than 30% to almost 800 units next year, and even more home sales await succeeding years.
�There is a likelihood that the government may start to roll back cooling measures in the year ahead. This may revive home sales and remove a critical overhang for developer stocks,� Maybank Kim Eng said.Attached Thumbnails
Can't pay repossess due to income changes or job losses we all know several.
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But can pay monthly mortgage forced to top up and kenna repossess I have not encountered any.
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Dont know about you fellas but i know of more than several cases of banks repossessing mortgaged properties and bankrupting people who cant pay.
Banks dont operate on a monthly payment basis, in case you dont know.
Once the borrower's situation changes, income capability changes, everything changes already.
Banks with huge mortgage loan risk will chop first.
Aiyah, i better let CHCO do the dirty job of giving you all a lesson in housing loans and mortgages.
Muayhahahahaha�
Can't pay repossess due to income changes or job losses we all know several.
But can pay monthly mortgage forced to top up and kenna repossess I have not encountered any.
The last i asked about this from two local banks, they did implement this before but it affected more private property owners
Thanks for sharing and balancing my understanding!�
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http://blog.moneysma...do-we-avoid-it/
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The last i asked about this from two local banks, they did implement this before but it affected more private property owners
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They do not really need the grant to finance it, but if the bank do call them to top up a lump sum it will definitely be a problem for them.
They already placed a 5% deposit, so is bit like riding on tiger back can't get down.
So they have to think about it carefully. There are some risks for ECs as they can only take bank loan.
Let me share a real story.
few days ago one of my friend went to meet the MP session for appeal to get a certain HDB grant.
The person (won't name the person but definitely someone we know) told my friend to be Prudent and told them when bank valuation of your property fall you may need to do a top up.
My friend is getting a EC already put deposit.
My thought is did they know something we don't know?
If he Okay with it, better advise him to set aside some buffer just in case interest rate were to increase.
Edited by Yewheng, 09 December 2015 - 07:39 AM.
Thanks for sharing and balancing my understanding!
http://blog.moneysma...do-we-avoid-it/
The link u shared is a good read, the two scenarios are nicely summarized, somehow i m quite scare of banks, think bank loans can be tricky at times
They seemed to always offer a huge amount of loan enuff to cover private property purchase, so i think individuals really need to scrutinize the affordability and long tern financial viability
The link u shared is a good read, the two scenarios are nicely summarized, somehow i m quite scare of banks, think bank loans can be tricky at times
They seemed to always offer a huge amount of loan enuff to cover private property purchase, so i think individuals really need to scrutinize the affordability and long tern financial viability
Yes, I do read some of the links. I just had some doubts so I asked to clarify.Nope, just that I see some postings of negative nature, so I post some positive news to balance the scale for a different view. If it's of concern, just let me know and I will stop posting.
Keep 'em coming bro, as long as they are factual I see no harm in contributing.
articles are more interesting and informative than people like me shouting market up up up right?
Well u have every right to talk up the market just like some who wish to talk it down as well. I make my own conclusions n anyway I only have 1 owner occupied property so makes no difference to me so pls continue, cheers!!
Thanks. We can share and learn and prepare as much as possible. Every choice taken has potential risks and benefits. Even avoiding risks can be risky in the long run. Most important is to manage the risks which I feel MND has done decently in raising downpayment and debt ratio measures.�
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Some risks will always remain, but I feel EC margin call risks are the lowest amongst all property classes except HDBs because they cater for home stayers and are fully privatised (foreigners can buy) in 10 years.�
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To trigger a margin call requires many factors coming together that causes home owners, Govt and even banks to lose and cut losses. I read in this forum that in 2008, expats who loaned in local currencies received margin calls likely for luxury properties. But that also took place when 10% financing was still possible.
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The risk environment is likely quite different now. Again caveat emptor.
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The link u shared is a good read, the two scenarios are nicely summarized, somehow i m quite scare of banks, think bank loans can be tricky at times
They seemed to always offer a huge amount of loan enuff to cover private property purchase, so i think individuals really need to scrutinize the affordability and long tern financial viability�
Edited by Seohster, 09 December 2015 - 09:18 AM.
Let me share a real story.
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few days ago one of my friend went to meet the MP session for appeal to get a certain HDB grant.
�
The person (won't name the person but definitely someone we know) told my friend to be Prudent and told them when bank valuation of your property fall you may need to do a top up.
�
My friend is getting a EC already put deposit.
�
My thought is did they know something we don't know?
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Yes, PAP very scared singaporeans over extend and end up sky diving from Pinncale duxton
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they have been warning singaporeans that property price will fall since 2010. Our dear friends malborough and hui ge kept telling HDB buyers not to rush, wait and buy later cos price will drop. I feel sorry for those who heeded PAP's well intentioned advice cos they would have ended up paying 50% more for their flat, further burdening them with more debt till the day they are 65 yr old
Dont know about you fellas but i know of more than several cases of banks repossessing mortgaged properties and bankrupting people who cant pay.
Banks dont operate on a monthly payment basis, in case you dont know.
Once the borrower's situation changes, income capability changes, everything changes already.
Banks with huge mortgage loan risk will chop first.
Aiyah, i better let CHCO do the dirty job of giving you all a lesson in housing loans and mortgages.
Muayhahahahaha�
don't be stupid lah, banks repossess properties even when market is hot. so u still think that market is going down?�
Can't pay repossess due to income changes or job losses we all know several.
But can pay monthly mortgage forced to top up and kenna repossess I have not encountered any.
Well, if your income pattern weakens and you lose your job, how long can you keep up with mortgage payments? 3yrs? Or 3mths? That should be the crux of the matter. Its about your own true financial position. Not about cutting off a pound of meat to pay off a bloody mortgage, on a monthly basis at that!
Dont talk about rich father mother sister brother support.
If today your job is gone, where do you stand, brother Sabbie.
Tell me you are cool.
Its about managing that risk. The paperwork says they can call on you ANYTIME to pay. Your signature is on the documents, you want to challenge that?
Mai lah, instalments are not the only parameter of assessment.
This is not a short term liability like a stupid car loan which already incorporated high lending rates to mitigate that fact.
I think everyone here should watch a nice local production "unlucky plaza" acted by adrian pang.
Quite interesting to watch. Very applicable to situations today.
Another jobless day for poor me.....hai....
don't be stupid lah, banks repossess properties even when market is hot. so u still think that market is going down?
Dont be stupid, that has always been my point. I dont need you to repeat my sharings.
You should be much busier making money in an upswinging market rather than debate about it with a jobless bum like me.
The reasons and signs for market going down have been pointed out many times.
You can have your own reading of where its going, no one ever stopped anyone.
But if you cant understand simple English, please brush up.
If you like to put words in people's mouth, be ready to be sued, one day.
http://sbr.com.sg/re...singapore-homes
Malaysians, Mainland Chinese still eager to snap up Singapore homes
9 Dec 2015
Cheap OCR homes lure foreign buyers to Singapore
10 dec 2015
Homes under $1m are in great demand.
Cheap homes in outlying regions continue to hold allure for foreign buyers looking to snap up a home in Singapore.
Data from DTZ show that the number of foreigner home purchases below $1.0m continued to trend upwards, as opposed to properties under other price bands.
The volume of transactions by foreigners for properties priced between $0.5 million to $1.0 million rose by 58.5% in the first nine months of 2015.
In contrast, properties priced between $1.0 million and $2.0 million observed a 12.0% drop in foreign purchasers over the same period.
In the third quarter, the number of foreign purchasers fell across the Core Central Region (CCR) and the Rest of Central Region (RCR) by 38.1% and 23.9% q-o-q.
In contrast, the OCR market segment was more resilient with sales falling by 11% q-o-q in Q3 2015.
�The narrowing price gap between buyers and sellers for projects in OCR attributed to the moderated decline. Besides being more affordable, most of the OCR projects are proximate to the new MRT stations on the upcoming Downtown and East CoastThomson Lines, which will offer faster access to the Central Business District,� the report said.Attached Thumbnails
99% sold?
Yup, proves that you are a property agent for sure.
Lying thru the skin of your teeth.
90% of units are under 1000sft.
Of which 80% are effectively studio apartments with a few rooms squeezed in and then marketed as 2br even 3 br!!!
Anyway, not developers fault, if stupid buyers want to pay high psf but low quantum, i would screw them if i were a developer too. Nowadays the way to sell is reduce size and quantum. Classic sales strategy 101.
Sell one cake difficult, sell a slice and mark up price! Wahaha
Muayhahahaha�
precisely, so many people willing to pay high psf, i wonder why would anyone think that price can drop?�
precisely, so many people willing to pay high psf, i wonder why would anyone think that price can drop?
Here're several lessons for you, free of charge.
1. Willing to pay and ability to pay are two different things
2. High psf today is already significantly lower than before
3. The many number of people buying falls way short of the more number of units flooding the market.
4. Dont be as lame as the rest of the agents out there. When its time to represent a negative but factual market situation, do it. Sophisticated clients will appreciate the unadulterated truth and reward you for it when the time comes.
How many of us have NOT met a dozen of lame housing agents in our lives?
None.
How many of us have met just one solid steady, sharp yet sincere honest housing agent in our lives?
I leave that to the gallery to answer.
So Wyfitms, its your call, really, what kind of agent you wanna be.
Just like all the rest in denial who advocate that prices are going up short term, long term, every term?
Perhaps you are a hotshot millionaire agent, i dont care.
There are plenty of lame asses who make easy money.
Substance in every sense of the word, i unfortunately dont see often, in your type of industry.
Those who have it, do very well in life (not just money)
For a jobless bum who has NEVER met that elusive steady housing agent in his whole life.
Here're several lessons for you, free of charge.
1. Willing to pay and ability to pay are two different things
2. High psf today is already significantly lower than before
3. The many number of people buying falls way short of the more number of units flooding the market.
4. Dont be as lame as the rest of the agents out there. When its time to represent a negative but factual market situation, do it. Sophisticated clients will appreciate the unadulterated truth and reward you for it when the time comes.
How many of us have NOT met a dozen of lame housing agents in our lives?
None.
How many of us have met just one solid steady, sharp yet sincere honest housing agent in our lives?
I leave that to the gallery to answer.
So Wyfitms, its your call, really, what kind of agent you wanna be.
Just like all the rest in denial who advocate that prices are going up short term, long term, every term?
Perhaps you are a hotshot millionaire agent, i dont care.
There are plenty of lame asses who make easy money.
Substance in every sense of the word, i unfortunately dont see often, in your type of industry.
Those who have it, do very well in life (not just money)
For a jobless bum who has NEVER met that elusive steady housing agent in his whole life.�
LOL something about u that attracts only lame ass agents ah?�
LOL something about u that attracts only lame ass agents ah?
Like how you always stalk me?
Yeah..... Maybe its the fact that i am a jobless bum
Few surprises expected for H1 state land sales
Market conditions largely unchanged since last government land sales programme
By Kalpana Rashiwala
PROPERTY consultants are generally not expecting any major surprises for the upcoming Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for private housing and commercial land for the first half of 2016, and this applies to both the confirmed and reserve lists.
In the private housing segment, the authorities will have to weigh the current state of the market - including the ongoing ramp-up in private home completions and rising vacancies, as well as a more measured intake of overseas nationals - against the fact that developers continue to show a healthy appetite for land at state tenders as they need to replenish this vital raw material to keep their businesses going.
JLL's head of Singapore and South-east Asia research Chua Yang Liang said: "Still, the downward bias that we have seen in the confirmed list for private housing land supply since H2 2013 - following the introduction of the total debt servicing ratio - is likely to continue for the H1 2016 GLS Programme."
CBRE Research head for Singapore and South-east Asia, Desmond Sim, noted that since the previous GLS announcement in June for the H2 2015 Programme, market conditions have remained largely unchanged. "The property cooling measures are still in place. While the number of unsold private residential units in uncompleted projects has reduced, there is still an overhang of about 22,000 units in the market."
As for commercial sites, property consultants expect the Ministry of National Development (MND) to stick to the reserve list as its primary supply channel - given the surge in office completions from next year. Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong, commented: "In the current context, what may be more relevant is that after taking into account the changing demand landscape such as tech companies moving to business parks and banks reducing their property footprint, historical Singapore office take-up rates may no longer be the norm and the annual demand baseline may have to be reset to a lower level. For Grade A CBD offices, this could be 750,000 sq ft per annum - down from the one million sq ft average annual take-up figure from 2005-2014."
For the current H2 2015 GLS slate, the MND has supplied land for 1,610 private residential (non-EC) units and 520 executive condos (ECs) through the confirmed list. It has also offered, through the reserve list, sites that can potentially yield up to 4,875 (non-EC) private residences and 820 ECs.
ECs are a public-private housing hybrid. Sites on the reserve list are launched for tender only upon successful application by a developer - unlike confirmed-list sites, which are launched according to schedule, regardless of demand.
While most consultants are expecting the combined housing supply from the two lists for H1 2016 to be in the region of H2 2015's 7,825 homes, they gave different takes on the composition of this number for the coming period.
CBRE's Mr Sim does not expect any EC sites in the confirmed list this time around, given the substantial supply. "EC sites can be left to the reserve list," he said.
According to R'ST Research, as at end-October, about 4,300 units remained unsold in EC projects already on the market. In addition, EC projects that have yet to be launched can yield a further 3,200 units.
Still, the firm's director Ong Kah Seng makes a case for a step-up in EC land supply in H1 2016. "Sales of ECs are expected to improve in 2016, following a cut in the average selling price by most developers from at least S$800 psf previously to S$750-780 psf in H2 this year.
"ECs will continue to be attractive to the sandwiched class, especially with the increased income ceiling for new EC buyers. There's no major oversupply of ECs."
Mr Ong reckons the MND will release one EC site on the confirmed list that could yield about 500 units. The Sumang Walk site in Punggol, which can generate some 820 units, is likely to remain on the reserve list, which may also be augmented by a new site for about 400 units to take the reserve-list EC supply to 1,220 EC units for H1 2016. He suggests that a site in Bukit Panjang estate would be ideal on either list as the area will see increased connectivity following the recent completion of Downtown Line 2.
In the non-EC private housing segment, JLL's Dr Chua suggests that given the recent triggering of a reserve-list site in Lorong Lew Lian near Serangoon MRT Station and Nex mall, the authorities could be motivated to release some land in the city fringe. However, he expects this to be through the reserve list, as is also likely to be the strategy for any sites that could potentially be offered in the Core Central Region.
The confirmed list will continue to predominantly feature suburban sites - as "given the fundamental population, demand will still be within the mass market", as Dr Chua put it.
Alice Tan, head of consultancy and research at Knight Frank Singapore, envisages the release of new private housing sites in the growth areas of Jurong Lake District and Bidadari to stimulate an increase in the residential population in these locales.
On the other hand, "areas such as Queenstown and Redhill which already see significant outstanding unsold supply are not likely to see injection of new supply", she added.
One factor that will limit the variety of new sites that could be rolled out in the upcoming GLS Programme is a paucity of sites given the steady reduction in residential state land sales in the past few rounds, some analysts said.
Mr Ong of R'ST foresees that further ahead, possibly in the H2 2016 GLS Programme, a retail site could be released at Bidadari or its vicinity - as the estate's development progresses.
For its H2 2015 GLS Programme, the MND released land for only 2,000 sq m gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space through the confirmed list; 275,580 sq m of commercial space could potentially be produced from sites on the reserve list - in places such as Central Boulevard, Beach Road and Woodlands Square (all with significant office components) and Holland Road. CBRE's Mr Sim said: "We would not be surprised if retail space is released in the upcoming GLS Programme to boost amenities around new transport nodes on the Downtown and Circle lines."
As for sites with a significant office component, most observers expect the MND to continue supplying them solely through the reserve list - amid fears of an impending office glut due to a confluence of major completions starting next year and weak demand.
Mr Cheong of Savills commented: "MND is likely to be fully aware of the spike in completions of office space in the CBD and regional locations from mid-2016 to 2018. Even going by historical rates of take-up, there would still be a supply overhang till the end of the decade."
Most analysts expect the authorities to stick to the current policy of not releasing any hotel rooms supply through the GLS Programme - as the existing stock and supply pipeline are deemed to be sufficient. Offering an alternative view, Savills' Mr Cheong said: "Nevertheless, it is still possible for the authorities to take a calculated risk and introduce a small hotel plot on the confirmed list and a mid-sized plot on the reserve list - in case fundamentals may be starting to improve for the Singapore hotel market."
Yah. Have also mentioned that in my previous thread and warning those who are still happily hunting a so call claimed undervalue buy. The cheap can get even cheaper. Many here are still not really aware the heavy risk ahead. Good luck.
�
If your friend need the grant desperately to close the financial gap, then it might be prudent to take his advice. Only your friend know but everyone knows the economy is slowing down and there might be more job losses next year, so need to have buffer to ride out the cycle. I doubt MP knows more than that unless he is also Lawrene Wong. hahaha...
�
This is a solid warning. The risk for that scenario appears pending indeed.�
�
But it does not take place by itself. As bro OmOm warned, we must look to history for that combination of events. The key word is hyperinflation. Everybody "dies".
�
First bonds and stocks will crash as everyone escapes to cash and are unwilling to part with it even with high yields.
�
https://www.globalfi...gfdblog/?p=2074
�
Actually it has started in the junk bond markets a couple of days ago.
�
Junk bonds are the lowest rated bonds in the whole world. Essentially people who buy junk bonds are bottom-scrapers i.e. they bet on the riskiest bonds in exchange for some of the highest yields available (double-digit annual returns currently).�
�
In a benign inflationary environment, the risks that these junk bonds pose are largely micro in nature i.e. confined to the specific company or group of companies. However, when the environment gets turbulent and deflationary (as it is so right now), the risks rapidly expand to take on a macro nature i.e. all junk bonds get swept into the same "rubbish" bin and are treated with extreme disgust suddenly.�
�
This change results in junk bond prices falling (and correspondingly yields increasing). Unfortunately it does not stop there; there is contagion into the next category of bonds which are the high-yield bonds. These are considered a level better than junk but nonetheless still high-risk.
�
So if one tries to visualise the scenario, it is one domino pushing on the next. Junk bonds pushing onto high-yields, and so on and so forth, until even the most highly-rated triple-A bonds are impacted in terms of price and yield.
�From:�http://www.zerohedge...thing-blow-junk, just a couple of days ago.
�
"There isn�t much as far as confirmation, but it increasingly appears as if �something� just hit the triple hooks (CCC) in the junk bond bubble. At least as far as one view of it, Bank of America ML�s CCC implied yield, there was a huge selloff that brought the yield to a new cycle high (low in price) above even the 2011 crisis peak."��
And as you have rightly pointed out, the pot is boiling in the oil debt markets (and similarly starting in the junk bonds department). It has been estimated (and I believe it is a conservative number) that half of the global oil junk bonds could default:
�
http://money.cnn.com...-bond-defaults/
�
As oil prices collapse, refinancing of debt becomes next to impossible due to sky-rocketing borrowing costs (interest). This results in more bond-holders calling for early redemption (where permitted) or selling on the open market (which becomes terribly illiquid as the number of sellers start to far outnumber the buyers).
�
Do the above have an impact on private property prices? Naturally. Bonds are one of the favourites of street investors. They are also pervasive, having been widely distributed by banks and other financial institutions. When there is mayhem in the bond markets, the financial injuries sustained there cascade to other areas due to the large losses incurred by investors. Pull-backs and deleveraging across segments and markets start to happen.
�
When the above is coupled with a credit crunch that ensues from broad-based plummeting�confidence, borrowing costs for properties will start to increase in response to the higher risks that lenders have to take in such an environment. This results in more people having to offload their property holdings due to the unaffordable installment payments and margin calls rooted in negative equity situations.
�
Edited by Seohster, 14 December 2015 - 10:20 AM.
Contrary to the article in your hyperlink, in a hyperinflationary world, cash becomes worthless because governments worldwide would be printing currency non-stop, causing the unit value to fall over time. People will flee fiat currency instead of running to it (as the article suggests). In such a situation, debt becomes preferential because currency decreases in value and the debt value reduces in real-world terms over time. Gold and silver as well as property prices will sky-rocket when this happens.
�
The current circumstances point more to a disinflationary situation, and we are teetering on the precipice of deflation (if we are not already in it).
�
Global economic growth has already slowed immensely today, resulting in decreasing consumption of raw materials, thus producing falling commodity prices and less investment into these areas (producing a vicious cycle).
�
On a whole, in today's context, deflation is more damaging than inflation because there is so much debt worldwide and the cost of debt is growing exponentially in real-world terms as deflation worsens. Cash becomes sought-after as people scramble to pay down debt and we experience diminishing values in many asset classes including gold and silver as well as properties.
�
The Great Depression of the 1930s was highly deflationary and it took the US many years to recover from its damaging effects. The likelihood this round is that we will swing from a deflationary situation to a hyperinflationary one as world governments once again turn on their money-printing presses in a knee-jerk reaction to print their way out of the economic quagmire.
�
The question thus is how long we will remain in deflation and whether the typical man-in-the-street can endure the devastating effects of a prolonged deflationary period when asset values fall by 50% to 80%.�
�
�
This is a solid warning. The risk for that scenario appears pending indeed.�
�
But it does not take place by itself. As bro OmOm warned, we must look to history for that combination of events. The key word is hyperinflation. Everybody "dies".
�
First bonds and stocks will crash as everyone escapes to cash and are unwilling to part with it even with high yields.
�
�
Again, a solid analysis where deflation is indeed worse than inflation.
�
But Govt increase interest rates typically during inflation and not during deflation as far as I am aware.
�
Contrary to the article in your hyperlink, in a hyperinflationary world, cash becomes worthless because governments worldwide would be printing currency non-stop, causing the unit value to fall over time. People will flee fiat currency instead of running to it (as the article suggests). In such a situation, debt becomes preferential because currency decreases in value and the debt value reduces in real-world terms over time. Gold and silver as well as property prices will sky-rocket when this happens.
�
The current circumstances point more to a disinflationary situation, and we are teetering on the precipice of deflation (if we are not already in it).
�
Global economic growth has already slowed immensely today, resulting in decreasing consumption of raw materials, thus producing falling commodity prices and less investment into these areas (producing a vicious cycle).
�
On a whole, in today's context, deflation is more damaging than inflation because there is so much debt worldwide and the cost of debt is growing exponentially in real-world terms as deflation worsens. Cash becomes sought-after as people scramble to pay down debt and we experience diminishing values in many asset classes including gold and silver as well as properties.
�
The Great Depression of the 1930s was highly deflationary and it took the US many years to recover from its damaging effects. The likelihood this round is that we will swing from a deflationary situation to a hyperinflationary one as world governments once again turn on their money-printing presses in a knee-jerk reaction to print their way out of the economic quagmire.
�
The question thus is how long we will remain in deflation and whether the typical man-in-the-street can endure the devastating effects of a prolonged deflationary period when asset values fall by 50% to 80%.�
�
The purpose of lowering interest rates is to stimulate the economy. This produces an inflationary effect because liquidity in the system increases due to the increase in borrowings and therefore spending ability by the individual consumer (competition for resources produces an increase of prices).
�
Interest rates cannot be kept artificially low permanently as this distorts the cost of capital in the long run and produces negative effects, socially, economically and eventually politically. Thus when normalcy in growth has been achieved, central banks mop up liquidity by increasing interest rates. This has the opposite disinflationary effect where upward pressure on prices abates from the decreased liquidity and thus competition for resources in the system.
�
In a high inflation environment, central banks are loathe to lower interest rates because it would push inflation even higher. In a deflationary environment where prices are already falling, raising interest rates will cause prices to fall even more.�
�
Based on the above, one may argue that the Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates on 16 Dec since we are already in a disinflationary (or even deflationary) environment. However, we need to remember that keeping interest rates low have an effect on capital markets and leads to imbalances arising from distorted cost of capital in the long run.
�
If the distortion becomes too severe, implications in areas such as labor, land costs, etc set in, eventually resulting in social unrest and a total breakdown of the socio-politico-economic system.
�
�
Again, a solid analysis where deflation is indeed worse than inflation.
�
But Govt increase interest rates typically during inflation and not during deflation as far as I am aware.
�
Again, a solid analysis where deflation is indeed worse than inflation.
But Govt increase interest rates typically during inflation and not during deflation as far as I am aware.Are you serious? Then why a lot people keep complaint cost of living keep increasing, buay tahan. Housing price keep increase, food price keep increase. Then salary also never increase much. It's all propaganda that politician (not our politician) do not want to do the right thing. They choose the easy way out to win voters at the expense of future generation that need to pay back.
So that's why we are in the situation right now. Not that deflation is bad, just that it would be the cure to the end of crazy inflation that took place for decades already.
* The government is rich, when average citizen are rich. The government is not rich by just based on the amount of spending power they have. As they could easily change laws or whatsoever to print more money to increase spending power, but that would be at the expense of future generation. Like that the average citizen will never be rich as inflation is eating too much into their wealth.
Edited by Yewheng, 14 December 2015 - 11:46 AM.
Fully agree with you that Fed must raise interest rates two days later to prevent long term damage everywhere.
�
But if they do it, they do it based on the assumption that inflation will be normal (at least 2%).
�
Central banks and Governments can raise interest rates during inflationary periods, and they would not continue to do so if it is obvious that a deflationary impact is felt.
�
So the road forward, is it inflationary or deflationary? Can't be both.
�
�
�
In a high inflation environment, central banks are loathe to lower interest rates because it would push inflation even higher. In a deflationary environment where prices are already falling, raising interest rates will cause prices to fall even more.�
�
�
Yes Bro Yewheng, we are dead serious cos deflation means loss of jobs, companies close down etc.
�
I do find it weird that our interest rates never went up much during inflationary periods. But it is even less likely to go up if there is deflation.�
�
�
Are you serious? Then why a lot people keep complaint cost of living keep increasing, buay tahan. Housing price keep increase, food price keep increase. Then salary also never increase much. It's all propaganda that politician (not our politician) do not want to do the right thing. They choose the easy way out to win voters at the expense of future generation that need to pay back.
So that's why we are in the situation right now. Not that deflation is bad, just that it would be the cure to the end of crazy inflation that took place for decades already.�
Yes Bro Yewheng, we are dead serious cos deflation means loss of jobs, companies close down etc.
�
I do find it weird that our interest rates never went up much during inflationary periods. But it is even less likely to go up if there is deflation.�
�But that would be the cure to the mistake that past�politician�had done. If it is not corrected, when the bubble gets bigger, it gets a lot worst.
Singapore is a small country, whether is it inflation or deflation, we could not escape. That's why we are also moving away from USD to Chinese Yuen.
?Its pain to see many people lose job, but then its a cycle and very soon these people will find some good job when company restructure and then gets stronger.
?On the other hand, can say, we keep let inflation go up. It would be a lot worst for future generation I can tell you. As sooner or later we still need to face it, why not let it correct early then later when the bubble gets a lot bigger ?
�
Yes Bro Yewheng, we are dead serious cos deflation means loss of jobs, companies close down etc.
�
I do find it weird that our interest rates never went up much during inflationary periods. But it is even less likely to go up if there is deflation.�
�Interest rate never go up doing inflationary period is because the fed are printing a bunch of $$ and are buying back as bond. Got cheap money from feds, why not take it? Somemore no need to charge high interest rate and loan out $, people would be happy to loan more.
With high interest rate, there maybe some who want to loan $ maybe thinking, interest rate so high for loan, better think carefully. Then the cycle continue, then problem is more $ printed, the $ does not seems to benefit the middle to low income earners, it causes uneven wealth distribution. E.g People who buy houses at low price and sell at higher price 5 to 10 yrs later and make profit. They earn big bucks, their wealth increase tremendously,�the average people who want to buy house now finds the housing price too expensive, no choice but still need to buy, they take 30 yrs loan and does not seems to see any good future ahead. The wealth gap widen.
So inflation only benefit people who know how to make use of it and also the top few percentage of people. Those average people will only gets poorer.
I agree with your rationale and am thankful for the actions undertaken to�limit the size of the�bubbles as described in bro Mercs post on HK properties to limit the extent of damage if any.
�
But as a small country, we are also greatly subjected to forces beyond our control. China and Japan are still into easing to keep inflation in healthy range, and only China has the leeway to play with its interest rates due to its greater inflation rate.
�
We are lucky that Malaysia and Indonesia, some of our largest and closest�importing countries, have helped us limit the negative impacts of inflation.
�
�But that would be the cure to the mistake that past�politician�had done. If it is not corrected, when the bubble gets bigger, it gets a lot worst.
Singapore is a small country, whether is it inflation or deflation, we could not escape. That's why we are also moving away from USD to Chinese Yuen.
?Its pain to see many people lose job, but then its a cycle and very soon these people will find some good job when company restructure and then gets stronger.
?On the other hand, can say, we keep let inflation go up. It would be a lot worst for future generation I can tell you. As sooner or later we still need to face it, why not let it correct early then later when the bubble gets a lot bigger ?
��
I agree with your rationale and am thankful for the actions undertaken to limit the size of the bubbles as described in bro Mercs post on HK properties to limit the extent of damage if any.
But as a small country, we are also greatly subjected to forces beyond our control. China and Japan are still into easing to keep inflation in healthy range, and only China has the leeway to play with its interest rates due to its greater inflation rate.
We are lucky that Malaysia and Indonesia, some of our largest and closest importing countries, have helped us limit the negative impacts of inflation.
Net effect, a lot more malaysian would want to come to singapore to work as we have a strong currency. However if it is not managed properly, some lower paying job originally for singaporean will end up to malaysian.
Plus, due to the close proximity and actually many business man keep fly to singapore to Kl and Kl back to Singapore for work purposes, Malaysia not doing good, they also get affected. Singapore is too small a coubtry all interlinked.
By the way, some would think that the fruits and vegetables that we import from Malaysia will get cheaper due to singapore stronger exchange rate. It may not be the case, the price may even rise. Reason is simple. From business perspective, due to Malaysia weak currency, business over at malaysia will have to increase price.
They increase price, we get better exchange rate. However net effect is the ultimate increase may still be higher price. Plus don't forget there are some companies operate here depends on Malaysia ringgit. Malaysia ringgit affected, these company also gets affected.
Edited by Yewheng, 14 December 2015 - 12:28 PM.
This is a good data. Red flags are surfacing everywhere. We don't need an expert to tell. These are the tell-tale signs :
�
1. US Interest rate (Free $$$ for too long)
2. Property assets have merely corrected less than 10-15%
3. Household leverage
4. External factors, like China financial trouble and depreciate currency in emerging markets (Including Asian region).
�
The perceived of under-valuation is set by the free market at that point of time. No one knows where the under-valuation is... Waht the experts use to do, is to use historial data as extrapolate into future. If the so-call experts are right most of the time, they would have been billionaires by now.�
When you hear lost of jobs and increase the NPIs, normally is to late to pull the plug. By than everyone will be pulling at the sametime.� �
�
�
This is a solid warning. The risk for that scenario appears pending indeed.�
�
But it does not take place by itself. As bro OmOm warned, we must look to history for that combination of events. The key word is hyperinflation. Everybody "dies".
�
First bonds and stocks will crash as everyone escapes to cash and are unwilling to part with it even with high yields.
�
�
This is a solid warning. The risk for that scenario appears pending indeed.
But it does not take place by itself. As bro OmOm warned, we must look to history for that combination of events. The key word is hyperinflation. Everybody "dies".
First bonds and stocks will crash as everyone escapes to cash and are unwilling to part with it even with high yields.
https://www.globalfi...gfdblog/?p=2074
Nice try Sabbie? Muayhahaha
Can debate based on facts and predictions or name calling.
�
What one chooses decides who he is.
�
I have never cloned any account on any forum I used. If I disagree with the forum in its entirety, I will quit it and never come in.
�
Nice try Sabbie? Muayhahaha
�
Edited by Seohster, 14 December 2015 - 03:10 PM.
What I mentioned in my earlier posts are textbook economics and goes to only a certain extent to describe superficially the situation that we are facing in the global financial system today.�
�
Looking beneath the surface - the Fed does not run on altruism.
�
We must always remember that it is a pseudo-government entity that wields immense power over the US financial system, authority that has been obtained through elaborate schemes, and through that, extensive influence over the global financial system.
�
To assume that it has the best interests of the world in whatever action it takes would be naive.�
�
We have reached the current situation collectively because decisions were made at a certain level for this to become reality.
�
Lax regulation - check.�
�
Ultra-low interest rates - check.
�
Wanton spending - check.
�
Bubbles in emerging markets - check.
�
Financial markets addicted to stimulus - check.
�
One thing is for certain. The next event that sets off a chain reaction of massive unwinding and deleveraging will not happen simply because of pure chance.�
�
�
Fully agree with you that Fed must raise interest rates two days later to prevent long term damage everywhere.
�
But if they do it, they do it based on the assumption that inflation will be normal (at least 2%).
�
Central banks and Governments can raise interest rates during inflationary periods, and they would not continue to do so if it is obvious that a deflationary impact is felt.
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So the road forward, is it inflationary or deflationary? Can't be both.
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Property market perking up
People are confident that despite the cooling measures, the property market is not going to correct very much more, says PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail.
Dec 9, 2015
Private and public housing resale numbers are up as prices stabilise
Rennie Whang
The mood in the real estate sector has been mostly gloomy for a while but sentiment has clearly improved from this time last year with talk that prices could start bouncing off the bottom.
There were 5,510 private property resales in the 11 months to Nov 30, up 20.8 per cent from the same period last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
Public housing resales are up as well with about 19,000 transactions expected for this year, around 10 per cent ahead of last year, said PropNex Realty.
PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail said: "Prices are generally consolidating. People are confident that even with all the cooling measures in place, the property market is not going to correct very much more."
The figures indicate that most of the price declines appear to have occurred last year.
Resale prices of non-landed properties dropped 1.2 per cent in the first 11 months of this year, according to flash estimates from SRX Property yesterday.
In comparison, they fell 4 per cent over the whole of last year.
Resale prices even rose 0.6 per cent last month over October, following a 0.6 per cent month- on-month decrease in October.
While last month's change could be a monthly fluctuation and prices may fall this month, it does not negate the fact that there is a "notable turnaround of events", noted Savills research head Alan Cheong.
"Many analysts expected resale prices to continue falling well into next year... (but) buyers are coming back to the resale market, probably seeing value for money after waiting for two years for prices to crash, and they did not."
Similarly, HDB resale prices moderated by less than 2 per cent for the year so far, compared to the full-year fall of over 6 per cent last year.
They rose about 0.4 per cent last month from October, thanks to a 0.5 per cent rise for four-roomers and an increase of 1.4 per cent for five-room homes, according to SRX estimates last week.
"HDB prices may not even fall next year and could grow as much as 1 per cent for the year," said Mr Ismail. "With increased transactions, there is no reason for prices to continue to slide."
Private home resales were up across all three regions - they rose 31 per cent year-on-year to 1,226 units in the core central region for the first 11 months, according to URA data.
Mr Cheong of Savills noted that this area's strength, which began in December last year, began to taper off in August when the haze sent foreign buyers shopping for properties elsewhere.
However, resale volumes were also up elsewhere. Transactions rose 21.5 per cent to 1,650 units in the city fringes and 16.1 per cent to 2,634 units in the suburbs, in the first 11 months.
Many buyers are purchasing for their own use and have come to appreciate that resale properties tend to be larger, said Mr Eugene Lim, ERA Realty key executive officer.
Take a buyer with $1.2 million. He could get a three-bedroom unit at 1,300 sq ft in older 99-year leasehold condos, but the same amount could buy a three-bedroom unit of just over 900 sq ft at a new launch.
Many are buying near schools or their workplaces and are increasingly showing interest in regional centres, including Jurong and Tampines, Mr Lim added.
There could be an even higher number of resale transactions next year, while any more price declines should be marginal, experts said.
all i can say is long oil n related assets
Only stupid people will ask him for his opinion.
Time wasting and always one sided, practically worthless.
Resale teeny weeny bit stronger naturally due to months of dropping, and these property people say market perking up already, turnaround already. Muayhahahahaha. Super facepalm.
Interest up, rent down, economic downturn, still buying to invest?? Muayahahahaha
If got a lot of money and buying in full cash, i can understand.
Becos one solid gold Rolex is never enough either.
But If getting a salary and taking a big loan to invest, i can only advise against at this point.
Dont say i never say, hor.
If buying to stay and move on to new stage in your life, plse work out your finances and carry on.
My discussion pertains to investment properties only.
Good luck Singaporeans !
Edited by Throttle2, 15 December 2015 - 11:53 AM.
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