Now i already affected badly already, hope no property bubble burst in sg
the CNBC article manage to zero in on 2 out of 4 of the affected countries in which area... quite chilling to read...
Singapore fundamentals strong... the STI should be quite resistant
Edited by Goldbug, 30 August 2013 - 07:33 PM.
Perhaps...it may take place earlier than 2016.
MAS has strong reserves, I doubt SGD will plunge like Rupee or Rupiah
MAS has strong reserves, I doubt SGD will plunge like Rupee or Rupiah
Report say SGD wont plunge but property bubble might burst which is worst than SGD plunge leh
That is the reason why they want PR to wait 3yrs inorder to buy HDB resale . This group boh pian , will either buy pte pty or rental , this is to engineer the manitude of the burst
Edited by Jasonjst, 30 August 2013 - 08:04 PM.
Report say SGD wont plunge but property bubble might burst which is worst than SGD plunge leh
That is the reason why they want PR to wait 3yrs inorder to buy HDB resale . This group boh pian , will either buy pte pty or rental , this is to engineer the manitude of the burst
sgd plunge is worst. we lose our monetary value overnight. affects our currency value as well as trading power/buying and selling power.
bubble burst affects local economy only. singapore not big enough to cause worldwide meltdown like usa did in 2008
Tapering is likely in September but with the situation in Syria, not so sure anymore.
yalor... you think will extend QE boh?
sgd plunge is worst. we lose our monetary value overnight. affects our currency value as well as trading power/buying and selling power.
bubble burst affects local economy only. singapore not big enough to cause worldwide meltdown like usa did in 2008
but so many people bought property at historic high prices, bubble burst will bring alot of hardship to singaporean families
Report say SGD wont plunge but property bubble might burst which is worst than SGD plunge leh
That is the reason why they want PR to wait 3yrs inorder to buy HDB resale . This group boh pian , will either buy pte pty or rental , this is to engineer the manitude of the burst
so many rounds of cool measures, still will burst meh?
so what went wrong? the govt let the property bubble to build up?
i won't deny there is a bubble but as far as i can see, local property buyer are SOLID
they will not die (probably hurt a little) even the bubble burst
unless we are talking about no jobs, no gdp growth and interest rise to 4%-5% or higher
Edited by Wt_know, 30 August 2013 - 08:39 PM.
so many rounds of cool measures, still will burst meh?
with 6.9mil coming , not only will it burst , it will sink the whole island lah !
When burst take off cooling measure sure bubble bubble pop againso many rounds of cool measures, still will burst meh?
True as long as no global downturn, sg will remain attractive. No investments from indo and india, there are still many other countries invest in sgwhen QE1 QE2 and QE3 start to print money .... today is already EXPECTED right
so what went wrong? the govt let the property bubble to build up?
i won't deny there is a bubble but as far as i can see, local property buyer are SOLID
they will not die (probably hurt a little) even the bubble burst
unless we are talking about no jobs, no gdp growth and interest rise to 4%-5% or higher
when QE1 QE2 and QE3 start to print money .... today is already EXPECTED right
so what went wrong? the govt let the property bubble to build up?
i won't deny there is a bubble but as far as i can see, local property buyer are SOLID
they will not die (probably hurt a little) even the bubble burst
unless we are talking about no jobs, no gdp growth and interest rise to 4%-5% or higher
say property valuation dip, at what point the banks will ask for top up?
True as long as no global downturn, sg will remain attractive. No investments from indo and india, there are still many other countries invest in sg
Not invest , they speculate in Singapore big time via Casino , properties . Tell me what can growth in Singapore market ?
Yes speculate so even if got propert burst, govt can remove absd and sure foreigners will be interested to buy property in sgNot invest , they speculate in Singapore big time via Casino , properties . Tell me what can growth in Singapore market ?
Think bank will ask u to top up back to LTV ratio. So if 1m condo and ur deposit 500k, price drop 900k, they will ask u top up 50k since 50% LTVsay property valuation dip, at what point the banks will ask for top up?
This is what i understand, CMIIW
Think bank will ask u to top up back to LTV ratio. So if 1m condo and ur deposit 500k, price drop 900k, they will ask u top up 50k since 50% LTV
This is what i understand, CMIIW
if no cash, can ask for bridging loan boh ?
as long as there is little default and no huge bad debt ... ie many property developer run road
there should be no problem and finance is manageable
True as long as no global downturn, sg will remain attractive. No investments from indo and india, there are still many other countries invest in sg
Edited by Wt_know, 30 August 2013 - 09:13 PM.
MAS say 5-10%. not tat many. but of cos, as in every downturn, some will kena. SGD plunge is much more serious. But i doubt will happen. For property, bubble won't burst cos govt prevented bubble. at most correction with some firesales.but so many people bought property at historic high prices, bubble burst will bring alot of hardship to singaporean families
MAS say 5-10%. not tat many. but of cos, as in every downturn, some will kena. SGD plunge is much more serious. But i doubt will happen. For property, bubble won't burst cos govt prevented bubble. at most correction with some firesales.
that sounds comforting...
how come the CNBC want to stir?
CNBC has agenda?
Edited by Goldbug, 30 August 2013 - 09:23 PM.
That's part and parcel of "investment" lor... where got pao tan one....but so many people bought property at historic high prices, bubble burst will bring alot of hardship to singaporean families
yalor... you think will extend QE boh?
Tapering will definitely be this year. The last FOMC already more or less confirmed already. The question now is only when.
Wah dunno can anot, normally during such times bank will be more careful in lending moneyif no cash, can ask for bridging loan boh ?
Again i not the bank so cant give answer
Dont worry too much, wait it crash then say hahaa
Edited by Thaiyotakamli, 30 August 2013 - 09:28 PM.
Yah nvr seen bank like ocbc, so much cash, scared lend out money lose money lollocal bank balance sheet super duper solid tok kong ...
as long as there is little default and no huge bad debt ... ie many property developer run road
there should be no problem and finance is manageable
Tapering will definitely be this year. The last FOMC already more or less confirmed already. The question now is only when.
US economy up liao meh?
why must taper?
Wah dunno can anot, normally during such times bank will be more careful in lending money
Again i not the bank so cant give answer
Dont worry too much, wait it crash then say hahaa
hmm... I like your attitude... wait it crash then say
That's part and parcel of "investment" lor... where got pao tan one....
ehh... this kinda of thing is heng sui one lar
last year never mention tapering
suddenly this year taper here taper there
itchy backside
Now talk so much also no use lolhmm... I like your attitude... wait it crash then say
Always remember to have some cash on hand just in case. If property really crash wad we can do? Nth lol
Especially for group of buyers like me when bought the property during cm 7, jialat lor
Edited by Thaiyotakamli, 30 August 2013 - 09:37 PM.
US economy up liao meh?
why must taper?
Improving. Good housing numbers, good job numbers. Not fantastic but slowly getting better. It's about time the Fed taper.
but so many people bought property at historic high prices, bubble burst will bring alot of hardship to singaporean families
those who bought to stay wont feel.
property flippers will get hid hardest
When the tide subsides, we will see who have been swimming around naked.
Many people have been borrowing money beyond their means to buy cars and properties, feeding the bubble to a size we have never seen before.
When the tide subsides, we will see who have been swimming around naked.
izzit, how you know
you mean I am not alone?
ever since d US Fed talked abt tapering, funds have been unwinding out of EM assets... this is y pple talk abt asian crisis repeating again.
ever since d US Fed talked abt tapering, funds have been unwinding out of EM assets... this is y pple talk abt asian crisis repeating again.
I read the report from the website... siao liao
The Institute of International Finance, Inc. | Economic Research
The environment for capital flows to emerging economies has worsened recently. Global risk aversion has surged amid concerns about the duration of ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy, sending ripples through EMs. EM currencies have plummeted in recent months, driven in part by a reversal of portfolio equity flows and reduced bond inflows since March. Overall, we project that private capital inflows to EMs will amount to $1,145bn this year, a decline of $36bn relative to 2012. Capital outflows by EM residents continue to grow, with ?private? (non-reserve) outflows projected to reach $1 trillion in 2013, a 10-fold increase since the early 2000s.
the PDF file attached has detail analysis
i bought 2 months ago but for own stayI told you all to sell already since two mths ago.......hai.....
but so many people bought property at historic high prices, bubble burst will bring alot of hardship to singaporean families
those idiots only have themselves to blame
those idiots only have themselves to blame
Really, the govt has so many times discourage ppl not to buy but in the end Singaporeans still bought and pushed prices up higher. How many times have we heard from ppl that property will not go down and better to buy now than later? Khaw has so many times preached patience and told ppl to wait for the property market to correct a little bit before going in. See what now? People who bought during the peak and are fumbling now deserve it. If for own stay, then can only LPPL. All I can say is that the govt has a central focus and loss measure is not part of it now, too bad for these people.
Edited by Pmet, 31 August 2013 - 07:41 AM.
those idiots only have themselves to blame
my china pr colleague earning 7k/month bought 3.... yes 3 shoebox units over the past few years. still staying in his hdb. he needs to cash out soon before it goes on downward spiral
Remember the cooling measures and remember the people buying like there is no tomorrow. These people will either need to refinance their mortgage next year or the year after. These people were over leveraged on low introductory interest and their introductory interest is due to expire. These people may have more than one property and one of the cooling measures is that they can only borrow 60% of the mortgage. If one cannot top up, one is forced to accept the higher rates of interest. Monthly mortgage payments will go up quite a bit and with interest rates rising ...................................
Edited by Mcscot, 31 August 2013 - 07:52 AM.
Muayhahahahahaha.
Why worry, if property crashes and bankrupted, just pack and run road to China lah.my china pr colleague earning 7k/month bought 3.... yes 3 shoebox units over the past few years. still staying in his hdb. he needs to cash out soon before it goes on downward spiral
At least he has the option to run road back to cheena.my china pr colleague earning 7k/month bought 3.... yes 3 shoebox units over the past few years. still staying in his hdb. he needs to cash out soon before it goes on downward spiral
Sinkie run road to where? Sentosa ?
Let the Banks kill them all
God will sort them out
I already standing by w my ammo pouch filled and ready to help any "distressed" property Liao
Why worry, if property crashes and bankrupted, just pack and run road to China lah.
like in Dubai?
Don't be so concerned about them la.
Errr I don't understand. People over leveraged its their problem.
Don't be so concerned about them la.
U don't understand meh :p
They don't understand that being greedy, foolish, is sometimes being very human, being alive, that making mistakes n falling down in life is natural n can result in a better person.
They just want to gloat over those who fall n trample them in their fallibility, rejoicing in their own superiority n feeling almighty over other "mere mortals".
i bought 2 months ago but for own stay
hey bro u changed your car ah? What happened to your Rx?
U don't understand meh :p
They don't understand that being greedy, foolish, is sometimes being very human, being alive, that making mistakes n falling down in life is natural n can result in a better person.
They just want to gloat over those who fall n trample them in their fallibility, rejoicing in their own superiority n feeling almighty over other "mere mortals".
Those small time show offs berating others for taking loans, just ignore them, your life is yours to live. Live the way you think is best for you.
But from the governments perspective, they cannot ignore it if too many people are over leveraging themselves, because it will affect the financial stability of the banks, which is intertwined with the whole economy. (if you were in the market during the 2008 Lehman crisis , you will know what I mean)
Jobs, businesses, property, retirement funds, insurance policies are all at risk.
Those small time show offs berating others for taking loans, just ignore them, your life is yours to live. Live the way you think is best for you.
But from the governments perspective, they cannot ignore it if too many people are over leveraging themselves, because it will affect the financial stability of the banks, which is intertwined with the whole economy. (if you were in the market during the 2008 Lehman crisis , you will know what I mean)
Jobs, businesses, property, retirement funds, insurance policies are all at risk.
means if bank fail, govt will help out?
See How big the Bank is, lormeans if bank fail, govt will help out?
Those small time show offs berating others for taking loans, just ignore them, your life is yours to live. Live the way you think is best for you.
But from the governments perspective, they cannot ignore it if too many people are over leveraging themselves, because it will affect the financial stability of the banks, which is intertwined with the whole economy. (if you were in the market during the 2008 Lehman crisis , you will know what I mean)
Jobs, businesses, property, retirement funds, insurance policies are all at risk.
Yes, too many ppl doing that because the vast majority of humans are greedy, short sighted and not too smart, including myself. That's how humanity progresses, by making mistakes, screwing up and learning from it...and then screwing up again n again :p
Yes, too many ppl doing that because the vast majority of humans are greedy, short sighted and not too smart, including myself. That's how humanity progresses, by making mistakes, screwing up and learning from it...and then screwing up again n again :p
if valuation drop, need to top up, can get bridging loan boh?
if valuation drop, need to top up, can get bridging loan boh?
the bank see u no up and ask u to top up, u think still can get bridging loan?
Yes ... from loanshark only
the bank see u no up and ask u to top up, u think still can get bridging loan?
Yes ... from loanshark only
hmm... better go see what can sold to get some cash
1) cooling measures show its effects
2) downturn
Perfect storm......
I will be slight sympathetic to those that bought a "home"
But they practically screw their own backside by commiting to huge loan
For those that bought a/ some property. See your holding power lor.
my china pr colleague earning 7k/month bought 3.... yes 3 shoebox units over the past few years. still staying in his hdb. he needs to cash out soon before it goes on downward spiral
But 7k only how to get loan for 3 units? His father open bank ah? Haha
Now still power leh. Better sell if got good price.
Haig road 3 room heb flat low floor. = 490k plus 70k cov
Huat ah!
But 7k only how to get loan for 3 units? His father open bank ah? Haha
Now still power leh. Better sell if got good price.
Haig road 3 room heb flat low floor. = 490k plus 70k cov
Huat ah!
shipping RMB out of tiong kok is a favorite past time
They din stir, jus say at risk. Alot depends on the economy. Economy bad, no bubble also will burstthat sounds comforting...
how come the CNBC want to stir?
CNBC has agenda?
No worries if they put high dp. I bought my property in last historic high...2007those idiots only have themselves to blame
No worries if they put high dp. I bought my property in last historic high...2007
2007 is historic high? not 2012?
Will affect bto or not....I scare also
Bro dont worry , BTO = Boi Toh One ! ( hokien can never fall )
Bro, my Indonesian friends all wanna expand their business to Singapore market liao haha!Now i already affected badly already, hope no property bubble burst in sg
But seriously, earn SGD better lah. More stable.
You know Fu Lu Shou downstairs food court got one Chinese Indonesian guy selling nasi padang... Open for quite long liao, think his business is quite good. Maybe you can try lah!
Average citizen like myself , might need to sell backside to pay back
means if bank fail, govt will help out?
Does govt have so much money? Now everyone is even encouraged to work until 80 years old, probably to help contribute to cpf.
my china pr colleague earning 7k/month bought 3.... yes 3 shoebox units over the past few years. still staying in his hdb. he needs to cash out soon before it goes on downward spiral
7k/month.
Can help to provide some general info (e.g., age, industry, education qualification etc) about this colleague of yours?
This is subjective. Are we been force to work longer or a lot of old ppl after retired Liao find no meaning in retirement find mp to extend the retirement age is still a mysterious.Does govt have so much money? Now everyone is even encouraged to work until 80 years old, probably to help contribute to cpf.
A lot of my ex- retired colleague going back to work force because they find no meaning in life after retirement.
Here so many people say interest rate will go up mah.... later up 24 percent like credit card interest how
Average citizen like myself , might need to sell backside to pay back
last time got this fed chief call paul volcker...
he set rates at 20% in 1979...
mai siao siao
Hai......to buy or not to buy...that is the interest rate question
Wah.....then better dont buy...just rent a place would do...
Hai......to buy or not to buy...that is the interest rate question
u dont need to ask that question if u stick to a simple plan: buy low sell high.
1yr ago, u almost cldnt find a single bearish prop view on this forum, eg. i used to post abt bearish prop views but got attacked for just sharing my opinions, now seems like more n more bearish views, so 12mths is all it took to change views.
again i say dat property is commodity n is subject to external forces on top of basic supply demand.
If I clever. Then I wont need pappy help to buy bto....
Talking about others. You see 7k per month can buy 3 small condo.
Hmmmm....maybe he follow sla director footsteps. ..he also can drive lambo. Merc and own so many properties
Hai ???????
ie, buy what u need and not anything more.
People buy 10+ properties and 10+ cars....
No wonder COE and Property price so high....
Just my view...
Hai ???????
Its a learning process as much as luck. Patience is impt
There is no crash. Just that pappy created policies that clamp down on speculation
But lucky only slow down because of their policies but no crash
You see the prices whether it would rise or fall, once they cancel all cm
But just ignore me.. just coffee shop talk, talk only
even crash also no money for 40% deposit
Edited by Staff69, 31 August 2013 - 04:44 PM.
Nth happened to my rx, is backside itchy hahahey bro u changed your car ah? What happened to your Rx?
I know that guy, he own the whole coffee shop, wife prc.Bro, my Indonesian friends all wanna expand their business to Singapore market liao haha!
But seriously, earn SGD better lah. More stable.
You know Fu Lu Shou downstairs food court got one Chinese Indonesian guy selling nasi padang... Open for quite long liao, think his business is quite good. Maybe you can try lah!
Earn sgd better but no interest rate for FD, AUD better actually
Errr I don't understand. People over leveraged its their problem.
Don't be so concerned about them la.
ya. i rather property crash than currency crash
Nth happened to my rx, is backside itchy haha
Haha but now is not a good time to change car right as dealers not taking in at good price and still selling car at old price prior to the curbs on loan
Yes but wait for market stabilize my backside already super itchy by that timeHaha but now is not a good time to change car right as dealers not taking in at good price and still selling car at old price prior to the curbs on loan
Anyway car dep was around 30k for a year and 3 months
No worries if they put high dp. I bought my property in last historic high...2007
indeed but not all ppl are like you... i see alot couple showhand naked one...
maybe this would change your mind?
Bank lending breaches psychological barrier
Loans-to-deposits ratio crosses 100% mark despite slower lending; analysts preach prudence as leverage concerns grow
Singapore
THE banking sector's loans-to-deposits ratio crossed 100 for the first time since the Asian financial crisis, providing evidence that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS's) recent moves to curb excessive lending were timely, say economists.
Bank lending in July continued to slow from a year ago for a third consecutive month, dragged down by slower growth in consumer loans. According to preliminary figures released by the MAS yesterday, domestic banking unit (DBU) loans rose 17.6 per cent to $539 billion in July year-on-year, down slightly from June's 17.7 per cent growth.
But what caught the industry's eye was the fact that the sector's loans-to-deposits ratio breached the 100 per cent threshold - marking the first time since September 1995 that this has occurred.
A ratio beyond 100 per cent means that banks are now lending more than they are taking in.
"I think it's a sign for everyone to be more prudent, because we haven't really seen such a quick rise in loans-to-deposits ratio for many years," said UOB economist Francis Tan, who noted that, on average, the city-state's loans-to-deposits ratio typically hovers around 88.3 per cent.
"The fact that it's getting higher means there is more leverage in the system, so in the event of a crisis - which is predominantly driven by external issues - people may be overstretched in repaying the instalments they owe," said Mr Tan, adding that the 100 per cent threshold acts as a "psychological benchmark".
Over the month, total bank loans rose 1.2 per cent at the end of July, faster than June's 0.7 per cent growth.
Business loans grew 1.6 per cent over the month to $321.1 billion, rising from the 0.7 per cent growth in June.
But even though loans to businesses accelerated slightly year-on-year - rising 20.8 per cent in July from 20.4 per cent in June - the increase was not enough to offset a slower growth in consumer loans.
Compared to a year ago, growth in loans to consumers slowed to 13.2 per cent and reached $217.9 billion, moderating from June's 13.8 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, consumer loans grew at 0.7 per cent in July, as they did in June.
Economists attribute the slowdown in year-on-year consumer lending to recent policy measures to cool the exuberant car and property markets, as well as new loan curbs that encourage financial prudence.
Housing and bridging loans - the largest consumer loans segment making up 74 per cent of the basket - continued to grow at a slower pace of 14.1 per cent in July, down from 14.5 per cent in June. In month-on-month terms, total housing loans were just 0.8 per cent higher.
Said DBS economist Irvin Seah: "We're no longer seeing total loans growth of 20-plus per cent, and it's largely because of the cooling measures introduced by the government - particularly the most recent TDSR (total debt servicing ratio) measure.
"I think that will continue to weigh down the consumer loan growth number, and for good reason," said Mr Seah.
"We have to be careful about consumer leverage, which is already at a historical high, and probably one of the highest in the region. It's an area of concern, and another reason for why the introduction of (the) TDSR (was) the right way to go," added Mr Seah.
Meanwhile, car loans shrank for an eighth straight month, falling 7.4 per cent from a year ago. Lending for cars was 2 per cent thinner in July compared to June.
Economists agreed that dampened demand for cars continues to feed into the decline in car loans, due to MAS vehicle loan curbs and high certificate of entitlement (COE) premiums.
Despite July's slightly stronger year-on-year showing in business lending, both Mr Tan and Mr Seah believe this will moderate in the months ahead.
"Quite a large chunk of Singapore's trade is intra-regional, so if Asia grows at a slower pace, that will slow business loans down," said Mr Seah.
When asked if overall bank lending numbers were still healthy - since coming off the 20-plus per cent growth rates seen in late 2011 and early 2012 - Mr Seah of DBS said: "I think from now on we'll need to look at loans growth in a totally different perspective. We shouldn't be focusing on the headline number anymore; we should distinguish between corporate and consumer loans.
"An improvement in corporate loans implies better investments, which is positive. But if we see an uptick in consumer loans, that means rising consumer leverage, and that will mean a negative thing."
2007 is historic high? not 2012?
Before the current historic high, 2007 was last historic high...semantics
Buy hdb, bto bestWah.....then better dont buy...just rent a place would do...
Hai......to buy or not to buy...that is the interest rate question
I adopt a different view. Buy based on fundamentals...good location, potential upside, n most important high dpu dont need to ask that question if u stick to a simple plan: buy low sell high.
1yr ago, u almost cldnt find a single bearish prop view on this forum, eg. i used to post abt bearish prop views but got attacked for just sharing my opinions, now seems like more n more bearish views, so 12mths is all it took to change views.
again i say dat property is commodity n is subject to external forces on top of basic supply demand.
THE banking sector's loans-to-deposits ratio crossed 100 for the first time since the Asian financial crisis, providing evidence that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS's) recent moves to curb excessive lending were timely, say economists.
hahaha i tot so many proclaim that many here r cash rich n no need take loan? D truth has been revealed n it shows d huge leverage in our system now...
Since 2009, its as if most forgot d tragedies of previous asian crisis. I witnessed a friend's family, who before d crisis dined at atas restaurants, had antique cars, had boats n lots of biz, n after d crash lost almost everything, becoz of bank loan default n as result asset liquidation...
Where got so many proclaim cash rich? Only cigar sommelier cum table wiper wat.hahaha i tot so many proclaim that many here r cash rich n no need take loan? D truth has been revealed n it shows d huge leverage in our system now...
Since 2009, its as if most forgot d tragedies of previous asian crisis. I witnessed a friend's family, who before d crisis dined at atas restaurants, had antique cars, had boats n lots of biz, n after d crash lost almost everything, becoz of bank loan default n as result asset liquidation...
The rest of us just live by the humble adage: No money, don't buy.
Actually. If only a small number of businessmen default and go broke, govt is not worried. So sory your friend's family happened to be one of them.
But if the majority of working population and property asset owners go into negative equity because of asset price crash, or working population lost jobs and cannot make the monthly repayments, THEN the govt got huge problem on its hands. Cos it affects banks, stock market, listed companies, SMEs, their employees, the whole chain gang will kena and it goes back again in a circle. More employees lose jobs or pay cut, more cannot make payments, and so on it goes.
So the govt also trying very hard not to let it happen.
So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.
So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.
wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?
If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?
No they just take off the foreigner absd and foreigners rush to buy sg property unless its worldwide financial crisis, then that one will crash hardwat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?
If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?
Resale HDB prices are backed and benchmarked by BTO prices.wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?
If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?
Private condo prices are backed and benchmarked by the most expensive resale HDB prices.
Do we agree on that?
If we do, then consider this.
BTO prices are set by govt.
If BTO prices maintain, I don't see how the rest could crash to a level below their backing?
After 4 years (and counting) of anti-speculator cooling measures, we should not be seeing many fire sales during a recession.wat u mean by wont crash? u mean if pple have to fire sale prop to get cash quick during recession, garmen will buy from them at top price?
If garmen got such an asset purchase program, r they gona use reserves or print $ n kill d SGD?
Most people who bought in the last 4 years can actually hold.
hopefully, after my MOP. with the profits then I consider
A ratio beyond 100 per cent means that banks are now lending more than they are taking in.
Resale HDB prices are backed and benchmarked by BTO prices.
Private condo prices are backed and benchmarked by the most expensive resale HDB prices.
Do we agree on that?
If we do, then consider this.
BTO prices are set by govt.
If BTO prices maintain, I don't see how the rest could crash to a level below their backing?
iirc, BTO prices are set by govt but is based on lower end of the surrounding resale HDB prices. Something like that.
in a crash there will be no demand, surround resale HDB prices will drop. And as you mentioned, the condo benchmark will drop. So private will also fall.
Govt putting in recent measures to prevent bubble are good moves to control prices.
Where got so many proclaim cash rich? Only cigar sommelier cum table wiper wat.
The rest of us just live by the humble adage: No money, don't buy.
Actually. If only a small number of businessmen default and go broke, govt is not worried. So sory your friend's family happened to be one of them.
But if the majority of working population and property asset owners go into negative equity because of asset price crash, or working population lost jobs and cannot make the monthly repayments, THEN the govt got huge problem on its hands. Cos it affects banks, stock market, listed companies, SMEs, their employees, the whole chain gang will kena and it goes back again in a circle. More employees lose jobs or pay cut, more cannot make payments, and so on it goes.
So the govt also trying very hard not to let it happen.
So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.
Why won't crash? When crash, u think all these rich fellas in MCF will just sit idle? I think fall 20% they all start to conquer Orchard Rd. Then price rise again.
i dont think so, mas rule is tighter than the Central Bank, so the portfolio they own is much more safe than the Lehman. I can imagine if SG banks went bankrupt, the majority of banks in Asia are following suitwah ... is there a possibility for one of the local bank become 2nd Lehman Brother?
A ratio beyond 100 per cent means that banks are now lending more than they are taking in.
hahaha true the bank statement mcf members have not enough space for the 'zeros'Why won't crash? When crash, u think all these rich fellas in MCF will just sit idle? I think fall 20% they all start to conquer Orchard Rd. Then price rise again.
u dont need to ask that question if u stick to a simple plan: buy low sell high.
1yr ago, u almost cldnt find a single bearish prop view on this forum, eg. i used to post abt bearish prop views but got attacked for just sharing my opinions, now seems like more n more bearish views, so 12mths is all it took to change views.
again i say dat property is commodity n is subject to external forces on top of basic supply demand.
i won't apply bearish and bull approach too much to property cos it's a very stable asset. Long term, property gains. That's an irrefutable trend. One should not invest in property based on views, but on earning power and long term approach.
Why won't crash? When crash, u think all these rich fellas in MCF will just sit idle? I think fall 20% they all start to conquer Orchard Rd. Then price rise again.
good for u that u have conviction on wat may happen. for me i dont predict, i prepare n react according to circumstance.
There will not be a crash because there will always be demand.iirc, BTO prices are set by govt but is based on lower end of the surrounding resale HDB prices. Something like that.
in a crash there will be no demand, surround resale HDB prices will drop. And as you mentioned, the condo benchmark will drop. So private will also fall.
Govt putting in recent measures to prevent bubble are good moves to control prices.
The 6.9m population will ensure that.
Also, BTO supply is manipulated. The govt can always turn off the tap a la Mah Bow Tan style.
The resulting drop in supply vs demand in subsequent years will ensure a skyrocketing of HDB prices (and by proxy, private condo prices) like we have seen in the past 10 years.
This time it is different, yeah, cos we are gonna have 6.9m people on this tiny island. And the gates are always easy to open again if that's not enough.
Your approach may work better in more liquid assets.good for u that u have conviction on wat may happen. for me i dont predict, i prepare n react according to circumstance.
For property, best to think longer term as it is highly illiquid.
Preparing and reacting according to circumstances rarely work to effect in the property market cos the lead times are just too long. Option is 2 weeks. The completion takes 8 to 10 weeks after that. How to do back to back trading? Lots could happen within 3 months.
good for u that u have conviction on wat may happen. for me i dont predict, i prepare n react according to circumstance.
Investments based on fundamentals should not be about reaction to circumstance. A very simple example would be Apple's stock. It fell from $200 during Lehman to $80. Panicky investors ran and reacted. Those who invested with a fundamentals mindset and kept the stock saw it rose to a peak of $700. Today's $500 but that's another story.
What are fundamentals? Property wise would be...is a country governed well? Does it have sound economic fundamentals? Is location good and so on...And as an individual, must be whether got money or not. I know buying landed property today is good but it's out of my league. If it's within my league, i will buy with absolute confidence. Condo im not so sure unless EC. Good times bad times, there are always good things to invest on.
There will not be a crash because there will always be demand.
The 6.9m population will ensure that.
Also, BTO supply is manipulated. The govt can always turn off the tap a la Mah Bow Tan style.
The resulting drop in supply vs demand in subsequent years will ensure a skyrocketing of HDB prices (and by proxy, private condo prices) like we have seen in the past 10 years.
This time it is different, yeah, cos we are gonna have 6.9m people on this tiny island. And the gates are always easy to open again if that's not enough.
Property price in a small city will never be cheap. I googled once on USA property price index during Lehman. Remarkably, NYC experienced the smallest dip compared to other parts of US. btw, HK most ex PSF is about 10k. We are around 6k. Squeeze another few million here and those who think price is high now ain't seen nothing yet!
And the best thing is: Singapore property prices actually kelong one.Property price in a small city will never be cheap. I googled once on USA property price index during Lehman. Remarkably, NYC experienced the smallest dip compared to other parts of US. btw, HK most ex PSF is about 10k. We are around 6k. Squeeze another few million here and those who think price is high now ain't seen nothing yet!
High demand, low supply. Every opportunist's wet dream. Most people who were in some way involved in property over the last 10 years surely made some substantial money from it, whether they were buyer, seller, agent, developer, builder, contractor, interior design, etc.
Edited by Viceroymenthol, 01 September 2013 - 12:49 AM.
Where got so many proclaim cash rich? Only cigar sommelier cum table wiper wat.
The rest of us just live by the humble adage: No money, don't buy.
Actually. If only a small number of businessmen default and go broke, govt is not worried. So sory your friend's family happened to be one of them.
But if the majority of working population and property asset owners go into negative equity because of asset price crash, or working population lost jobs and cannot make the monthly repayments, THEN the govt got huge problem on its hands. Cos it affects banks, stock market, listed companies, SMEs, their employees, the whole chain gang will kena and it goes back again in a circle. More employees lose jobs or pay cut, more cannot make payments, and so on it goes.
So the govt also trying very hard not to let it happen.
So property prices won't crash. It may go back to saner levels but crash? Never. The govt won't let it. As you know, our property market is a very tightly controlled and manipulated one.
This is very funny, people been complaining and voicing concern of housing being expensive and if if keep rising, property bubble will form. During that time government said, don't worry housing is still affordable. I mean should government have foresight to see it on rising trend even with ikan bilis measure for many years that property price still on rise. It means government is not going an effective job. Until recently then come out with TSR which should have been implemented in year2009. If not in 2011 after GE where there is a major change in minister appointment. Tharman become clever and learn from the housing mistake, so he knows the measures he put in need to be fierce and not ikan bilis measure like what KBW did, and he come up with loan kerb which too bad 2nd hand car dealer ( leave with it ) . As that is the only way to prevent people to sink into deeper debt. I do not know, but I got feeling this time crisis gonna be must worst off than 1997, 2008 as the debt to savings ratio exceeded 100% and still on the rise with low interest rate. So when crisis come it will be far worst off that many can imagine. Many will say government will not let it happen. I tell you guys, this kind of thing is beyond government control one. Government did do something to reduce the bubble especially, but like I said, since 2009 till 2012 it's all ikan bilis measure where KBW should implement more fierce measures many years ago. So bubble will burst no matter what, but it is the matter of how big the bubble is.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 05:15 AM.
Rupee/Rupiah crashed... so far quite accurate
government normally reactive rather than pro active
2008 meltdown, we shadow Hong Kong measures rather than come up with measures first
Now we know why property price still on rising trend before this new measures is in place. Hmm..
It will be very difficult for gov do the american style bailout even if they want, without doing serious harm to sgd and economy.
Have also read something about the money supply used by banks in sg for loans have far exceeded the reserves sg has.
It will be very difficult for gov do the american style bailout even if they want, without doing serious harm to sgd and economy.
I thought govt merge DBS with POSB during 98 to save DBS?
I thought govt merge DBS with POSB during 98 to save DBS?
That was then.. and how many state-run banks do we have..Now boh leow.
I remember it was reported done without ong teng cheong's approval.
There will not be a crash because there will always be demand.
The 6.9m population will ensure that.
Also, BTO supply is manipulated. The govt can always turn off the tap a la Mah Bow Tan style.
The resulting drop in supply vs demand in subsequent years will ensure a skyrocketing of HDB prices (and by proxy, private condo prices) like we have seen in the past 10 years.
This time it is different, yeah, cos we are gonna have 6.9m people on this tiny island. And the gates are always easy to open again if that's not enough.
I presume you have leveraged to the max already since so bao jiak.
cheers to "this time it is different"
The day may come when even if you swing the gate wide open, nobody wants to come.
The day will arrive when China finally increase its yuan value and that it is not worthwhile for its people to come here.
I thought govt merge DBS with POSB during 98 to save DBS?
Oh boy, I missed the real POSB bank and counter staff. They were the best and courteous even if you deposit $10. Things were totally oppositely different now.
Edited by Kangadrool, 01 September 2013 - 11:10 AM.
Correct. Singapore has sound fundamentals. As I have always told people who ask me if they should buy property: if you believe in Singapore, then you should buy.
Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
+1.Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
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