Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
Ya, it's slowly becoming a trend, I just hope SG don't follow USA trend that cause the year 2008 crisis.
There will not be a crash because there will always be demand.
The 6.9m population will ensure that.
Also, BTO supply is manipulated. The govt can always turn off the tap a la Mah Bow Tan style.
The resulting drop in supply vs demand in subsequent years will ensure a skyrocketing of HDB prices (and by proxy, private condo prices) like we have seen in the past 10 years.
This time it is different, yeah, cos we are gonna have 6.9m people on this tiny island. And the gates are always easy to open again if that's not enough.
Like Dubai? Build and they will come....
in 2010-2013 everyone is talking about collecting rent be it hdb or private pc
Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
Like Dubai? Build and they will come....
FTrash will come , biz will not ! Even existing biz will also move away to cheaper place where values are found ! You have landlord asking for a little shop of 500sqft 15K to 20K per month , tell me what kind of biz can make good profit in that little shop ? The only biz I can think of is Sex shop , dont need captital one , 100% profit no stocks to purchase . You keep on adding pressure , soon or later FTrash also will leave because all their taking goes to rental , foods and tax , leaving them nothing to take home
Edited by Jasonjst, 01 September 2013 - 11:51 AM.
That was then.. and how many state-run banks do we have..Now boh leow.
I remember it was reported done without ong teng cheong's approval.
bank merge must get president approval, how come?
Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
capitalism in sg has progressed?
FTrash will come , biz will not ! Even existing biz will also move away to cheaper place where values are found ! You have landlord asking for a little shop of 500sqft 15K to 20K per month , tell me what kind of biz can make good profit in that little shop ? The only biz I can think of is Sex shop , dont need captital one , 100% profit no stocks to purchase . You keep on adding pressure , soon or later FTrash also will leave because all their taking goes to rental , foods and tax , leaving them nothing to take home
but REITs holder must get their good dividen mah
Ya, it's slowly becoming a trend, I just hope SG don't follow USA trend that cause the year 2008 crisis.
we have subprime borrowers in singapore?
Gosh.... Must be another sabbie-cheng... Guys, do you even want to entertain this guy????bank merge must get president approval, how come?
Gosh.... Must be another sabbie-cheng... Guys, do you even want to entertain this guy????
Honest, I got no idea...
why bank merge must need president approval?
Wrong. A lot of ppl do want to come to SG. But I credit Raffles for tat, not LKYYeah right 6.9 million people. Sure?
The day may come when even if you swing the gate wide open, nobody wants to come.
The day will arrive when China finally increase its yuan value and that it is not worthwhile for its people to come here.
we have subprime borrowers in singapore?
No la, but fundamentals are still the same ma. Borrow when interest rate is low and hoping to sell at higher price, the cycle goes on and on until no one want to buy. Yes can earn rental income but, when economy not doing well, I doubt many will be able to get people to rent, plus rising interest rate. And dont underestimate domino effect.
FTrash will come , biz will not ! Even existing biz will also move away to cheaper place where values are found ! You have landlord asking for a little shop of 500sqft 15K to 20K per month , tell me what kind of biz can make good profit in that little shop ? The only biz I can think of is Sex shop , dont need captital one , 100% profit no stocks to purchase . You keep on adding pressure , soon or later FTrash also will leave because all their taking goes to rental , foods and tax , leaving them nothing to take home
Retail biz traditionally have always been one of thin profit margins. Many shops, like mine, just break even only. That said, don't be surprised if some of the more successful ones making good money. My bro's little shop of 150 sq ft every month turnover almost $60K....profit how much I dunno but must be big because he's expanding fast.
Correct. Singapore has sound fundamentals. As I have always told people who ask me if they should buy property: if you believe in Singapore, then you should buy.
This is a patently false assumption.
Singapore inherently is not on sound foundations. The fact that we have to import large numbers just to not shrink our GDP speaks volumes of why we are not stable.
The fact that a change in government will have confidence issues with investors means that we are not as sound as we would think.
The fact that Singapore's economy remains dependant on world economics means we HAVE NO FUNDAMENTALS. We are exposed to the whims and fancies of other bigger powers.
We don't have any natural resource. We don't have a domestic economy to speak of yet. We only have a pliant population. And one that will be continually pressed to eke out a living. Do not claim to have talent in the island. Our neighbours have more abundant talent which our MSM will not want to make known. Its is only sheer luck that their politics is not straightened out, unlike ours. Buts that is about to change too.
SARS was a good case in point. A measly virus almost wiped out our GDP for that year. Roads and schools and workplace and malls were all empty. Imagine more worse scenarios and you may understand what I mean.
We are on a knife-edge. Make no mistake.
better leave this wretched nation before it explode or sink
should go where, Australia, , china, india, malaysia,, Brunei
come come must share share, I know many of you all are pr in other country.
Allow me join you all, least, we are same, same, pr stick together
Edited by Staff69, 01 September 2013 - 01:59 PM.
Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
pruss two
BTW, i just told my dotter i will not pay her fees and give her $$ if she study engineering
Value creation is dead, value speculation is here to stay.
Get real , folks
Base on the information, given , better chance of survival if u take the monies and study elswhere
Edited by Albeniz, 01 September 2013 - 02:14 PM.
bangkok better, agogo girls
pruss two
BTW, i just told my dotter i will not pay her fees and give her $$ if she study engineering
Value creation is dead, value speculation is here to stay.
Get real , folks
why you so against her studying engines ? how can this world do without engines.
I agree....these lessons monies cant buy
my car forum age spread bigger
some got experience from 08 crisis
some got experience from 98 crisis
some are expert traders
come here see see look look
This is a patently false assumption.
Singapore inherently is not on sound foundations. The fact that we have to import large numbers just to not shrink our GDP speaks volumes of why we are not stable.
The fact that a change in government will have confidence issues with investors means that we are not as sound as we would think.
The fact that Singapore's economy remains dependant on world economics means we HAVE NO FUNDAMENTALS. We are exposed to the whims and fancies of other bigger powers.
We don't have any natural resource. We don't have a domestic economy to speak of yet. We only have a pliant population. And one that will be continually pressed to eke out a living. Do not claim to have talent in the island. Our neighbours have more abundant talent which our MSM will not want to make known. Its is only sheer luck that their politics is not straightened out, unlike ours. Buts that is about to change too.
SARS was a good case in point. A measly virus almost wiped out our GDP for that year. Roads and schools and workplace and malls were all empty. Imagine more worse scenarios and you may understand what I mean.
We are on a knife-edge. Make no mistake.
thanks for sounding out d issues. i hardly read any SG based economist's Sg economic forecasts, in fact i dont even read SG newspaper's finance sections. As long as our trade to GDP is 300%++, i spend 95% of my time reading global economic research instead coz end of d day we're just a little red dot.
Study engineering can also get u a job overseas. Engineering is not dead!why you so against her studying engines ? how can this world do without engines.
Study engineering can also get u a job overseas. Engineering is not dead!
Engineers will create d next apple facebook, financial analysts or doctors won't :)
Study engineering can also get u a job overseas. Engineering is not dead!
Are you engineering-trained? I am.
Considering how engineers are currently being remunerated both here and overseas, it is not worth it, especially in the fields of semicon.
why you so against her studying engines ? how can this world do without engines.
bcos my total IRA8 for 2012 as a very very senior engineering based professional is less than the taxes that my best friend paid for 2011 as a mid level bank slave
Engineers will create d next apple facebook, financial analysts or doctors won't :)
bcos Lehman Bros, Morgan and Stanley and Dr What-her-name-that-overcharged-Brunienians was already wayyyyy ahead of the game
get real, engineer
1 kopitiam bid 10 over millions ... expert suggest REIT for kopitiam
now because MND impose that new PR need to wait 3 years to buy resale HDB
nabei ... expert chop chop suggest REIT for HDB rental
sibei kang kor ... expert my A$$
but REITs holder must get their good dividen mah
Edited by Wt_know, 01 September 2013 - 04:19 PM.
Ubin lor, property so cheap thereAt least he has the option to run road back to cheena.
Sinkie run road to where? Sentosa ?
Are you engineering-trained? I am.
Considering how engineers are currently being remunerated both here and overseas, it is not worth it, especially in the fields of semicon.
semicon is dead since 10yrs ago. try going into IT security and IT banking sector, thats the $$$ making ones
bcos my total IRA8 for 2012 as a very very senior engineering based professional is less than the taxes that my best friend paid for 2011 as a mid level bank slave
i m totally not surprised
Ubin lor, property so cheap there
recently there is a new property launch called Funtasy, its some villa concept on an island likf 20km off sentosa. also cheap cheap niah
Cheers!I presume you have leveraged to the max already since so bao jiak.
cheers to "this time it is different"
No lah, leveraged less than 30% nia.
Haven't bought a property for so long. Kept waiting for it to crash but didn't.
I don't think it will ever crash.
Yeah. Sure. Everybody wants to come and make SGD to send home.Yeah right 6.9 million people. Sure?
The day may come when even if you swing the gate wide open, nobody wants to come.
The day will arrive when China finally increase its yuan value and that it is not worthwhile for its people to come here.
For our locals. Everybody wants to get married and buy flat. The demand is very high leh.
The issue is not whether price will drop due to economic forces. It will drop when govt dont want to lose any more votes. So BTO prices have to match the young couple's paycheck.
bcos Lehman Bros, Morgan and Stanley and Dr What-her-name-that-overcharged-Brunienians was already wayyyyy ahead of the game
get real, engineer
Haha tell that to d owners of Google, priceline, expedia, gilead sciences, 3M, Oracle etc... billion market cap coys lol
Nope. SG banks very Ngiao and careful. No subprime for private property.we have subprime borrowers in singapore?
But HDB loan is different. HDB loan quite compassionate. $1,000 a month salary can qualify to buy flat liao. And if cant pay, nevermind can otang one.
Haha tell that to d owners of Google, priceline, expedia, gilead sciences, 3M, Oracle etc... billion market cap coys lol
Hv you not seen the common denominator yet?
It's the bankers that hold money , which decided which engineer is more successful than others
Well thanks for your advice.This is a patently false assumption.
Singapore inherently is not on sound foundations. The fact that we have to import large numbers just to not shrink our GDP speaks volumes of why we are not stable.
The fact that a change in government will have confidence issues with investors means that we are not as sound as we would think.
The fact that Singapore's economy remains dependant on world economics means we HAVE NO FUNDAMENTALS. We are exposed to the whims and fancies of other bigger powers.
We don't have any natural resource. We don't have a domestic economy to speak of yet. We only have a pliant population. And one that will be continually pressed to eke out a living. Do not claim to have talent in the island. Our neighbours have more abundant talent which our MSM will not want to make known. Its is only sheer luck that their politics is not straightened out, unlike ours. Buts that is about to change too.
SARS was a good case in point. A measly virus almost wiped out our GDP for that year. Roads and schools and workplace and malls were all empty. Imagine more worse scenarios and you may understand what I mean.
We are on a knife-edge. Make no mistake.
Singapore is a lot like HK. No fundamentals of the conventional kind. We do not have natural resources, nor a big talent pool for conventional wealth creating industries in the western mold like engineering, IT and technology.
But what we have is our banking and finance industry. In fact the entire Singapore is one big bank. We have everything you want to invest in. Every single asset class. You can even use us as a secure base from which you will be able to move around and invest in the region. But whatever you do, please keep your money here. We will keep your money safe and grow it. Our taxes are next to nothing.
The middle class want to migrate.Wah.......sound scary......anyone got lobang to migrate..
better leave this wretched nation before it explode or sink
should go where, Australia, , china, india, malaysia,, Brunei
come come must share share, I know many of you all are pr in other country.
Allow me join you all, least, we are same, same, pr stick together
The poor and the rich want to come here.
To be happy in Singapore, one must be poor or rich.
Now please go buy a big landed property. It will keep going up.
This world cannot do without engineers.why you so against her studying engines ? how can this world do without engines.
But let the Japs and the Germans take care of that.
Let's just concentrate on what we excel in. Managing other people's money.
I sense a lot of bitterness here.bcos my total IRA8 for 2012 as a very very senior engineering based professional is less than the taxes that my best friend paid for 2011 as a mid level bank slave
Your friend knows which way our economy is heading.
For you, if you are really passionate about engineering, you can always try working for European or American MNCs.
Lots of highly qualified (with elite US degree) PRC engineers did that.
That one is indonesian territory, when u wake up from beautiful morning sunrise, suddenly got pirate put parang in ur neckrecently there is a new property launch called Funtasy, its some villa concept on an island likf 20km off sentosa. also cheap cheap niah
heard you big shot in Indonesia, your name got weight
U say my name he will torture u hahahaha cos i wanted by indonesian hei bai liang daocan say your name or not....
heard you big shot in Indonesia, your name got weight
The point here is that, there will be many that will be in denials, thinking government will not let crash happen are, crash will not happen are, or whatever sort of reasons saying crash will not happen. But it will happen in future no matter what base on fundamentals of what goes up must come down, plus low interest rate will not always stay low forever. Go think about it. Good luck to those who go in late, normally people very funny go in late ( time the market ) and when crash, blame on everyone except ownself, is it fair ? It's a fair game, if one want take the risk, and when market crash, please don't blame anyone they could think of, but blame onwself for making a brave decision or wrong decision.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 06:29 PM.
What planet you from?
Govt has no control over property supply?
What planet you from?
I not saying government has 0% control over property supply. What I am saying government has no control how property market will perform base on world economy and fundamentals on money supply and sound principals on how economy function. It's like many things are beyond sg government control, like $ printing. Who can be darn sure USA will stop $ printing in future, or who can be darn sure that even if $ printing continue, the confidence of market is still there? And many more factors hAppen around the world which government has no control. When interest rate rise, can government say hey, stop rise interest rate as that will hurt economy? No, when bank need to rise interest rate, they have to rise and many other set of circumstances.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 06:14 PM.
iirc, BTO prices are set by govt but is based on lower end of the surrounding resale HDB prices. Something like that.
in a crash there will be no demand, surround resale HDB prices will drop. And as you mentioned, the condo benchmark will drop. So private will also fall.
Govt putting in recent measures to prevent bubble are good moves to control prices.
Can help explain 3 generation flat with an area of 1237sq ft with 4 bedrooms and 3 BATHROOMS; cant imagine how small the rooms would be
To encourage multi-generational living, a new type of HDB flat will be introduced in the September BTO exercise. Three-Generation (3Gen) flats will have four-bedroom configuration with three bathrooms (two en-suites) within a 115 sq m (1, 237.86 sq ft) space. Applicants must, of course, form a family nucleus making up of at least a married/courting couple and their parent(s).
That one is indonesian territory, when u wake up from beautiful morning sunrise, suddenly got pirate put parang in ur neck
then u feel your arse pain pain si boh?
Wah kaooooothen u feel your arse pain pain si boh?
We r talking about sg property bubble burst now, the one u talking is worldwide crisis which sure affect sg property priceI not saying government has 0% control over property supply. What I am saying government has no control how property market will perform base on world economy and fundamentals on money supply and sound principals on how economy function. It's like many things are beyond sg government control, like $ printing. Who can be darn sure USA will stop $ printing in future, or who can be darn sure that even if $ printing continue, the confidence of market is still there? And many more factors hAppen around the world which government has no control. When interest rate rise, can government say hey, stop rise interest rate as that will hurt economy? No, when bank need to rise interest rate, they have to rise and many other set of circumstances.
So far as long as regional crisis sg govt shud be able to react and wont let property price drop
Pls have a faith with MIW, they r paid millions for nth
We r talking about sg property bubble burst now, the one u talking is worldwide crisis which sure affect sg property price
So far as long as regional crisis sg govt shud be able to react and wont let property price drop
Pls have a faith with MIW, they r paid millions for nth
Its the same, I think property bubble will burst due to world economy, and like I said government is no magic wand. Price drop will be beyond what government can control. So when people always say government will not let it happen is really an understatement as things do not work this way. It is the market forces that decide on something and not government intervention that decide on it.
I sense a lot of bitterness here.
Your friend knows which way our economy is heading.
For you, if you are really passionate about engineering, you can always try working for European or American MNCs.
Lots of highly qualified (with elite US degree) PRC engineers did that.
No la. . I am already past that self pity phase
Anyway I hv already done well enough by investing wisely to be confident about myself
But I do sincerely concern about the future well being of my staff
Worldwide of cos affected, we little red dot got the power to resist meh? Moreover our economy linked to the USA, if there is a prolong recession property market price will take a hit but how much that hit? Not as bad 2009 as people now aware already and moment price drop, those cash rich will break their piggy bank to buy sg propertiesIts the same, I think property bubble will burst due to world economy, and like I said government is no magic wand. Price drop will be beyond what government can control. So when people always say government will not let it happen is really an understatement as things do not work this way. It is the market forces that decide on something and not government intervention that decide on it.
Worldwide of cos affected, we little red dot got the power to resist meh? Moreover our economy linked to the USA, if there is a prolong recession property market price will take a hit but how much that hit? Not as bad 2009 as people now aware already and moment price drop, those cash rich will break their piggy bank to buy sg properties
That's what I trying to say, so government has no say on property market will not crash. So when people say government will not let it happen, please think about it. Market forces come into play.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 06:54 PM.
What govt do is to ease like relaxing the rule, which will reduce the impact.That's what I trying to say, so government has no say on property market will not crash. So when people say government will not let it happen, please think about it. Market forces come into play.
And talking about market, after experiencing 2009 crisis, u think when property drop cash rich people will still do nth? Sure they will jump in to get few units
What govt do is to ease like relaxing the rule, which will reduce the impact.
And talking about market, after experiencing 2009 crisis, u think when property drop cash rich people will still do nth? Sure they will jump in to get few units
I feel what government do is always 1 step late. Meaning the TSR should be implemented in year 2009 or year 2011 latest, but they did not do it until recently. So by that, with so many years on going. How many people will be affected when property market crash?? A lot people, and the domino effect will come into play. Government has no control on that, and when market crash, those cash rich may also has some other investment if they have to settle, plus by then no demand, will they dare to jump in ? Some yes, some no. Plus it's already known that SG debt to savings ratio is getting higher, so when crash come, it will impact even more people and more jia lat. So with this happening, go blame on government? No ma, as one choose to take the risk, as some people may say no risk no gain, but downside is the risk is high and still many want jump in and take the pie. So good luck lor.
One thing that people may have notice, no matter what government do, government will never beat market forces. Like the cooling measures that had been implemented many times over the past few years, Market forces still win government. So when crash, it will be the same. Market forces will win the government. So as a heads up.
* So anyone still dare to say government will not let crash happen?? Yes government will do it best to not let it happen, but ultimately market forces will still win government no matter what.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 07:35 PM.
Your views r true if theres easy credit. But with 50% down, its a very strong safeguardWas wondering why people keep saying government will not let property market crash la, or what so familiar sentences? I mean to be fair, government has no control 100% how property market will perform, it is purely base on demand and supply. Yes government can implement new rules and regulations that can affect buyers or speculators decision, but ultimately it will still depends on market forces.
The point here is that, there will be many that will be in denials, thinking government will not let crash happen are, crash will not happen are, or whatever sort of reasons saying crash will not happen. But it will happen in future no matter what base on fundamentals of what goes up must come down, plus low interest rate will not always stay low forever. Go think about it. Good luck to those who go in late, normally people very funny go in late ( time the market ) and when crash, blame on everyone except ownself, is it fair ? It's a fair game, if one want take the risk, and when market crash, please don't blame anyone they could think of, but blame onwself for making a brave decision or wrong decision.
Your views r true if theres easy credit. But with 50% down, its a very strong safeguard
I still hold my view to be quite bad.
As I feel government always one step behind market forces. As the duration for implementing a solution may take sometime and market conditions can change very fast one. Government cannot keep up with the pace. So go with the flow and see how lor.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 07:56 PM.
Welcome to capitalism, where its not the hardest working that makes the most money, but the ones who know how to make money succeed. Those who were smart enough to invest back then are sitting pretty today. The good thing or maybe bad thing about capitalism is there will always be ppl working for the rich. So not everyone has the luxury of being a landlord. Its a title reserved for those rich enough to buy properties.Singapore got sound fundamentals meh ? 10years ago yes , everybody work hard for their takes . Now , I everybody dont need to work , just be landlord better profit ! Productivity drop to all time low , capital flow to the wrong type of trades and to the wrong people . Too much money park in properties is not good for general economy, it does not generate enough biz activities and job creation. You call these sound fundamentals ?
This also means u r expecting property prices will drop 50% soon. We'll see.I still hold my view to be quite bad.
As I feel government always one step behind market forces. As the duration for implementing a solution may take sometime and market conditions can change very fast one. Government cannot keep up with the pace. So go with the flow and see how lor.
This also means u r expecting property prices will drop 50% soon. We'll see.
Drop is yes, but by how much and how soon, I will not know and many guys here will also not know even economist will also not know. If I know the magic number, I will be very rich billionaire, but I am not lol.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 08:02 PM.
How property price can drop so much by 50%? Now the LTV rule for 2nd timer already 50%. Govt has protect those late buyers already anything happen just increase the LTV back to 20/30%. So even crash maybe only price correctionThis also means u r expecting property prices will drop 50% soon. We'll see.
Like what u said we'll see
How property price can drop so much by 50%? Now the LTV rule for 2nd timer already 50%. Govt has protect those late buyers already anything happen just increase the LTV back to 20/30%. So even crash maybe only price correction
Like what u said we'll see
Don't underestimate market forces.
dont underestimate the richness of sporean and regional richies who want to park their money in spore during time of uncertainty
dont underestimate the kiasuism of sporean
dont underestimate govt reserve to spur local demand and economy
i wont deny property market will correct if there is a mojor downside in world economy
but a crash like 1997 (asian financial crisisi) and 2003 (sars) ... highly unlikely
Don't underestimate market forces.
Edited by Wt_know, 01 September 2013 - 08:59 PM.
dont underestimate govt intervention
dont underestimate the richness of sporean
dont underestimate the kiasuism of sporean
dont underestimated govt reserve to spur local demand and economy
i wont deny property market will correct if there is a mojor downside in world economy
but a crash like 1997 (asian financial crisisi) and 2003 (sars) ... highly unlikely
I would say it is possible or may even be worst than that. Look at how much $ been printed nowadays as compared to 10plus years ago and you take that as an multiplier effect.
The ups and downs is getting steeper and steeper and the duration of economy cycle is getting shorter and shorter.
Edited by Yewheng, 01 September 2013 - 09:09 PM.
If u held the belief its going to be quite bad, then that means theres going to be a crash, which means ard 50%. U dun need to know magic numbers. Its either correction or crash and since u say its going to be bad, then its a crash. If u have a 'i don't know view', then that means it can be either good or bad, which contradicts yr earlier viewpoint.Drop is yes, but by how much and how soon, I will not know and many guys here will also not know even economist will also not know. If I know the magic number, I will be very rich billionaire, but I am not lol.
Yewheng says its going to be bad ma, hence a steep dropHow property price can drop so much by 50%? Now the LTV rule for 2nd timer already 50%. Govt has protect those late buyers already anything happen just increase the LTV back to 20/30%. So even crash maybe only price correction
Like what u said we'll see
Yewheng says its going to be bad ma, hence a steep drop
That is my view only, I no experts. If market goes well don't blame me and if market goes bad don't blame me also too.
Relax, no one is holding u responsible. We're just trying to get clarification cos u say bad, then u say dunno...so maybe the folks are just trying to understand yr viewpointThat is my view only, I no experts. If market goes well don't blame me and if market goes bad don't blame me also too.
he/she should prepare, seize the opportunity and make the best of it
i agree with alessio rastani ... be prepared and take opportunity
if there is a crash ...
buy your dream car with $1k coe like in 2009
buy your dream home now $1000psf at $600psf ... 40% discount
load up your dream blue chip ocbc at $5 now at $10
crash is opportunity.
and if one has a belief crash is coming
he/she should prepare, seize the opportunity and make the best of it
i agree with alessio rastani ... be prepared and take opportunity
if there is a crash ...
buy your dream car with $1k coe like in 2009
buy your dream home now $1000psf at $600psf ... 40% discount
load up your dream blue chip ocbc at $5 now at $10
crash is opportunity.
Look at the way govt do things nowadays. Really cannot put blind faith on them believing they are superman who would come to rescue and help control the price so that the property will not crush onto you.
Agree about your point. Has been keeping cash and will load in once that opportunity arrives, it will.
Bloomberg News
Singapore Stocks Worst in Developed World
By Jonathan Burgos September 01, 2013
Edited by Goldbug, 02 September 2013 - 09:59 AM.
I don't agree or disagree with your view and it is correct to a certain extent.I would say it is possible or may even be worst than that. Look at how much $ been printed nowadays as compared to 10plus years ago and you take that as an multiplier effect.
The ups and downs is getting steeper and steeper and the duration of economy cycle is getting shorter and shorter.
I used to be a optimists or a pessimist when come to view but not anymore. Why worry and be overly bearish or be overly bullish when our view is always 50% correct or wrong as the outcome is simply up or down...
Nowadays it's planing for contingency plans... Is rise, what's the action. If drop, what's the action. If lose job what's the action etc etc.
Depends what is your 50% lah..This also means u r expecting property prices will drop 50% soon. We'll see.
Jurong/Clementi pte to go back to 700psf.. is very possible. You can say that's 60% drop compared to Jgateway..
As spoken earlier.. i think that price will moderate to
700-800psf for OCR (LH), 800-900psf for FH/next to mrt
800-900psf RCR (LH), 1000-1200psf for FH/next to mrt
1000-1200psf CCR (LH), 1400-1500psf for FH/next to mrt
HDB will hover ard 300psf - 600psf
% drop .. depends what is the price you are comparing too.
Edited by ShepherdPie, 02 September 2013 - 10:13 AM.
That's what I trying to say, so government has no say on property market will not crash. So when people say government will not let it happen, please think about it. Market forces come into play.
What market forces ? Government decides the market forces.
With BTO price at 300ks and so forth , how to can the market crash ?
those with BTO bought at 300k will 5 years later sell 500k .with the profit, there goes the cash for downpayment for that mass market condo 1m-1.2m
and the cycle goes on n on. If the market turns bad, EASY. Take away the ABSD,SSD,PR whatever..the market will shoot up again. The next peak is always higher then the previous one.
Price correction in the short term yes (has to be, due to so many restrictions), Over the long term, upside still there .
Think about it, if you are a rich chinese man, where will you park your money ?
Malaysia , other SEA countries (politically stablilty ?)
USA & Europe (Travel Distance , Language , Culture differences ?)
Australia, NZ ( Any capital appreciation potential ?)
Hong Kong, Japan ? (More EX then Sg now)
Figure it out...
Think about it, if you are a rich chinese man, where will you park your money ?
Malaysia , other SEA countries (politically stablilty ?)
USA & Europe (Travel Distance , Language , Culture differences ?)
Australia, NZ ( Any capital appreciation potential ?)
Hong Kong, Japan ? (More EX then Sg now)
Figure it out...
PRCs #1 choice is shared between canada n USA. Even Bo Xilai's son is US based lol...
anyway alot of pple seem to thk that if prices crash, garmen will remove FT prop taxes, dont u thk theyre taking a big political risk if they do that n backfires when mkt recovers n even more pple not happy w FTs/PRs pushing up prop prices? So ure saying watever happens p is screwed?
Edited by Duckduck, 02 September 2013 - 10:26 AM.
http://www.businessw...-southeast-asia
Bloomberg News
Singapore Stocks Worst in Developed World
By Jonathan Burgos September 01, 2013
Read in context. from the same source-
?Singapore is likely to outperform,? Tay said. ?Singapore?s strong currency, resilient domestic economy, good earnings-growth potential and exposure to developed markets? recovery make it appealing to foreign investors.?
Depends what is your 50% lah..
Jurong/Clementi pte to go back to 700psf.. is very possible. You can say that's 60% drop compared to Jgateway..
As spoken earlier.. i think that price will moderate to
700-800psf for OCR (LH), 800-900psf for FH/next to mrt
800-900psf RCR (LH), 1000-1200psf for FH/next to mrt
1000-1200psf CCR (LH), 1400-1500psf for FH/next to mrt
HDB will hover ard 300psf - 600psf
% drop .. depends what is the price you are comparing too.
Overall property price index. Of course there will be variations around the districts. Jgateway's existing psf is also different from Jurong/ Clementi pte so we have to compare based on existing psf rather than developments cos new and old are always priced differently.
For eg, Jgateway is drop to 1200psf, that's not a crash. Anyway, SG market is quite uniform, all link to Raffles place. So cannot be Jgateway drops 50% the rest drop 10%. There'll be variations but more or less in the same range.
Read in context. from the same source-
?Singapore is likely to outperform,? Tay said. ?Singapore?s strong currency, resilient domestic economy, good earnings-growth potential and exposure to developed markets? recovery make it appealing to foreign investors.?
ayah these idiots r paid to tok kok lah, if he knows wat happen next he can retire n b billionaire liao
PRCs #1 choice is shared between canada n USA. Even Bo Xilai's son is US based lol...
anyway alot of pple seem to thk that if prices crash, garmen will remove FT prop taxes, dont u thk theyre taking a big political risk if they do that n backfires when mkt recovers n even more pple not happy w FTs/PRs pushing up prop prices? So ure saying watever happens p is screwed?
60% will die die vote pap. Last election so obvious but they still vote. PE so obvious still around 30% vote TT.
Govt controls election dept, press and determine GRC boundaries. How to lose?
If Man U controlled English FA, they will determine referees, venue, fixture...so how to lose? But it's not. Anyway, i'm still sore Man U lost yesterday.
well, tok kok i don't know. All i know is the article is not just talking about a stock market problem. So my point is to read the article as a whole. I'm not sure calling these writers idiot is appropriate. After all, you have to be as good as them to call them that.ayah these idiots r paid to tok kok lah, if he knows wat happen next he can retire n b billionaire liao
let's say GCB $100M drop to $80M ... that's a $20M drop ... but what-the-heck ... that's GCB
the majority 99LH HDB, EC, PC, Townhouses, what-have-you ... the price will sustain ... correction yes ... firesales and lelong ? i don't think so
What market forces ? Government decides the market forces.
With BTO price at 300ks and so forth , how to can the market crash ?
Figure it out...
Edited by Wt_know, 02 September 2013 - 10:41 AM.
im no political analyst but to assume the tide has stopped turning against p is premature IMO. 2011GE was a feeling out process for many for first time in history so many voted oppo. Now that they can see d changes made post erections, dont u thk theyll b emboldened to continue to push for more reforms? D co-driver effect.60% will die die vote pap.
Ask you all this question, nowadays credit card is so easy to get as compared to 10plus years ago. I mean to have sound fundamentals of money is to have high savings rate, in order to produce.
So ya, I still stand my view point, when crash happen, it will be far worst then one can imagine ( where many thought only slight correction la, no need worry ) ...
i simply see it as govt controls too many situations such that they will always win.im no political analyst but to assume the tide has stopped turning against p is premature IMO. 2011GE was a feeling out process for many for first time in history so many voted oppo. Now that they can see d changes made post erections, dont u thk theyll b emboldened to continue to push for more reforms? D co-driver effect.
Remember the msia cup days. Even when SG is good, we don't win but once awhile we get to win. anyway, a oppo victory is not to form govt, but to prevent 2/3 majority. if that happens, then i can say pap lost. but pap is trying very hard not to let that happen.
the thing with these kinds of predictions is it can go either way. so it's always easy to predict doomsday. U can try googling US stock market, economy collapse 2013 and u'll find prominent ppl predicting it. If US collapse again, then what happens to us? More QE again?
The problem today is the spending rate is getting higher as compared to savings rate which is getting lower and lower. When there is too much of credit debit, you will know the country is in trouble.
Ask you all this question, nowadays credit card is so easy to get as compared to 10plus years ago. I mean to have sound fundamentals of money is to have high savings rate, in order to produce.
So ya, I still stand my view point, when crash happen, it will be far worst then one can imagine ( where many thought only slight correction la, no need worry ) ...
your way is not exactly based on fundamentals cos you're investing nothing. A good way is 50-50. Keeping a 50% cash portfolio and investing the rest, in case things work in your favour. It's also a good hedge.
A 100% cash portfolio is losing cos if things rise, then you don't get to make while someone else does. There'll always be that crash one way or another but holding power ensures the next high will be higher than before. And when its low, you can use that 50% cash to invest.
1997 .. many people tiao lao ... many ma-si-di tow back to dealer ..
Edited by Roadrunner2029, 03 September 2013 - 10:46 PM.
1997 .. many people tiao lao ... many ma-si-di tow back to dealer ..
can explain the chart boh?
Edited by Goldbug, 03 September 2013 - 10:53 PM.
1997 .. many people tiao lao ... many ma-si-di tow back to dealer ..
back then US n europe were OK n helped our exports during recovery, now both are sh!t so thats d uncertainty
http://blogs.wsj.com...7-vs-asia-2013/
can explain the chart boh?
1997 .. many people tiao lao ... many ma-si-di tow back to dealer ..
Unless this chart is inflation adjusted to compare dollar for dollar in real terms.
It can look scary.
1997 to 2013 is about 15yrs.
You will need to adjust that by a conservative 30-40%
In other words we are no any better in real terms 97 to current.
Coupled with a much bigger loan book, doesnt look fabulous
Anyway I dont care about which analyst say what.
I am currently zero debt, ready cash and liquid securities.
I am kiasee, prefer not to be the last one standing.
Sky-drop-use-as-blanket
Good luck folks!
Edited by Throttle2, 03 September 2013 - 11:08 PM.
This is one counter argument for the 1997 AFC redux in 2013 .. most Asian countries have more $$$ in the bank than the years leading up to AFC 1997 .. KKT :)
http://blogs.wsj.com...7-vs-asia-2013/
as w all great crashes, its a combo factors. traditionally commodities spike high before a big crash, currently they r not outperforming, but a US strike on syria cld b d trigger...
gahmen will remove or reduce property tax but most important is now the loan rule has been tightened, those late buyers will still protected when crash occurs. they may not need to top up cash amount as they already dp high.PRCs #1 choice is shared between canada n USA. Even Bo Xilai's son is US based lol...
anyway alot of pple seem to thk that if prices crash, garmen will remove FT prop taxes, dont u thk theyre taking a big political risk if they do that n backfires when mkt recovers n even more pple not happy w FTs/PRs pushing up prop prices? So ure saying watever happens p is screwed?
when crash happen, dont panic, dont sell ur property, can hold then hold, cannot hold jialat lor
This is one counter argument for the 1997 AFC redux in 2013 .. most Asian countries have more $$$ in the bank than the years leading up to AFC 1997 .. KKT :)
http://blogs.wsj.com...7-vs-asia-2013/
i thought more free money and people spend and get into debt more than they save in the bank?
True when people save no spend no economy growth no profit for banki thought more free money and people spend and get into debt more than they save in the bank?
your way is not exactly based on fundamentals cos you're investing nothing. A good way is 50-50. Keeping a 50% cash portfolio and investing the rest, in case things work in your favour. It's also a good hedge.
A 100% cash portfolio is losing cos if things rise, then you don't get to make while someone else does. There'll always be that crash one way or another but holding power ensures the next high will be higher than before. And when its low, you can use that 50% cash to invest.
Actually do you guys know why 2008 crisis is not worst off then 1997 crisis?? It is because of USA intervention that start printing massive amount of $ to prevent massive crash. That is why the crisis seems like quite fast recover. And do you guys know that the GDP figure is not that accurate?? Here is the link.. http://finance.yahoo...-111727893.html . Government always want to portray that everything is okay, but in fact it is actually not that good. And by right inflation should be way much higher than what it is announced due to the inaccurate GDP figures. During year 2008 crisis at least still has printing press and economy recover. What about the next crisis?? Will printing press still work?? I don't think so as look at zimbabwe, http://en.wikipedia....mbabwean_dollar .
Printing press only temporary stops the problem and does not solve anything. Because the world still very much rely on USA, that is why the inflation is brought to whole world, Singapore is also affected, like the property bubble and that is why SG government is trying their best to stop property price from rising too much, but as you all may see the measures is still not enough as it still rise at quite high pace. So imagine with no cooling measures in place, and can you imagine the amount of $ USA print that can cause such rise in property prices in SG even with so many cooling measures in place??
So the music will have to stop, I mean soon sooner or later things will come to the end of either USA go onto massive printing to a state of hyperinflation or USA stop printing press and default on loan. There is not way out, either way it does economy no good. So now you guys know why I say next crisis coming will be far worst than one can imagine?? As the effectiveness of printing press will be lost due to it has been used in year 2008 and it won't work in the next crisis. That is also the reason why, there is minority of people keep saying it's good to start looking to buy gold now, as precious metal is good hedge against inflation. All the best.
Edited by Yewheng, 04 September 2013 - 05:05 AM.
i thought more free money and people spend and get into debt more than they save in the bank?
Yes. more free money / liquidity in current account .. better position to ??. I quoted the article doesn't mean I agree with it though. Don't think more reserves in the form of foreign credit (as mentioned in the article) is necessarily better .. what happens when USD stop printing and default on loans ? Who pay for the continual growth ?
Whoever holds more reserve in USD will kanna more impact lor. Then the whole cycle is reset and start afresh again.
Edited by Yewheng, 04 September 2013 - 08:13 AM.
drug addict, going for rehab also have withdrawal symptoms
Edited by Goldbug, 04 September 2013 - 08:35 AM.
but US has been supplying cheap money for 4 years, even have reserves to buffer, won't have after shocks even if the reduction is tapered?
16trillions of $, how much buffer can they have?? Think about it..
Edited by Yewheng, 04 September 2013 - 08:36 AM.
16trillions of $, how much buffer can they have?? Think about it..
I not questioning your figure of 16 trillion
but you have any authoritative website that says in in print?
need to do "newspaper" clipping
thanks
so will affect my BTO pricing or not
if dont affect, then wont bother following
U.S. will hit debt limit mid-October
http://www.usatoday....ctober/2702937/
Actually do you guys know why 2008 crisis is not worst off then 1997 crisis?? It is because of USA intervention that start printing massive amount of $ to prevent massive crash. That is why the crisis seems like quite fast recover. And do you guys know that the GDP figure is not that accurate?? Here is the link.. http://finance.yahoo...-111727893.html . Government always want to portray that everything is okay, but in fact it is actually not that good. And by right inflation should be way much higher than what it is announced due to the inaccurate GDP figures. During year 2008 crisis at least still has printing press and economy recover. What about the next crisis?? Will printing press still work?? I don't think so as look at zimbabwe, http://en.wikipedia....mbabwean_dollar .
Printing press only temporary stops the problem and does not solve anything. Because the world still very much rely on USA, that is why the inflation is brought to whole world, Singapore is also affected, like the property bubble and that is why SG government is trying their best to stop property price from rising too much, but as you all may see the measures is still not enough as it still rise at quite high pace. So imagine with no cooling measures in place, and can you imagine the amount of $ USA print that can cause such rise in property prices in SG even with so many cooling measures in place??
So the music will have to stop, I mean soon sooner or later things will come to the end of either USA go onto massive printing to a state of hyperinflation or USA stop printing press and default on loan. There is not way out, either way it does economy no good. So now you guys know why I say next crisis coming will be far worst than one can imagine?? As the effectiveness of printing press will be lost due to it has been used in year 2008 and it won't work in the next crisis. That is also the reason why, there is minority of people keep saying it's good to start looking to buy gold now, as precious metal is good hedge against inflation. All the best.
Edited by Wt_know, 04 September 2013 - 10:02 AM.
it's likely that US will start the printer again in October. there seems to be no other "way" for US to climb out from the sinking hole now.
U.S. will hit debt limit mid-October
http://www.usatoday....ctober/2702937/
Look at what Robert Kiyosaki said on his facebook page.
https://www.facebook...151792830396788
You cannot continue to print $85 billion every month and expect the economy to hold up.
So well, the worst is feared will be hyperinflation.
it's likely that US will start the printer again in October. there seems to be no other "way" for US to climb out from the sinking hole now.
U.S. will hit debt limit mid-October
http://www.usatoday....ctober/2702937/
Edited by Roadrunner2029, 04 September 2013 - 10:14 AM.
If US default on loan, then no need say, property price will sure crash. No one will want to buy and want to sell off, plus rising interest rate put in even more stress among those who do not do their maths well and calculate solely base on the current interest rate now. Yes there is still rental income, but with bad economy, do you guys think people are willing to pay as much as it is now for rental?? Some may even have empty spaces due to cannot find people to rent their house/room, and that adds in liability.
Edited by Yewheng, 04 September 2013 - 10:19 AM.
Actually do you guys know why 2008 crisis is not worst off then 1997 crisis?? It is because of USA intervention that start printing massive amount of $ to prevent massive crash. That is why the crisis seems like quite fast recover. And do you guys know that the GDP figure is not that accurate?? Here is the link.. http://finance.yahoo...-111727893.html . Government always want to portray that everything is okay, but in fact it is actually not that good. And by right inflation should be way much higher than what it is announced due to the inaccurate GDP figures. During year 2008 crisis at least still has printing press and economy recover. What about the next crisis?? Will printing press still work?? I don't think so as look at zimbabwe, http://en.wikipedia....mbabwean_dollar .
Printing press only temporary stops the problem and does not solve anything. Because the world still very much rely on USA, that is why the inflation is brought to whole world, Singapore is also affected, like the property bubble and that is why SG government is trying their best to stop property price from rising too much, but as you all may see the measures is still not enough as it still rise at quite high pace. So imagine with no cooling measures in place, and can you imagine the amount of $ USA print that can cause such rise in property prices in SG even with so many cooling measures in place??
So the music will have to stop, I mean soon sooner or later things will come to the end of either USA go onto massive printing to a state of hyperinflation or USA stop printing press and default on loan. There is not way out, either way it does economy no good. So now you guys know why I say next crisis coming will be far worst than one can imagine?? As the effectiveness of printing press will be lost due to it has been used in year 2008 and it won't work in the next crisis. That is also the reason why, there is minority of people keep saying it's good to start looking to buy gold now, as precious metal is good hedge against inflation. All the best.
I think comparing Zimbabwe and US is not exactly a good idea. US is a superpower with companies much larger than even those listed on SGX. Zimbabwe has practically nothing. They are a superpower. The world practically transacts in USD.
US Debt
I think comparing Zimbabwe and US is not exactly a good idea. US is a superpower with companies much larger than even those listed on SGX. Zimbabwe has practically nothing. They are a superpower. The world practically transacts in USD.
US Debt
That is the problem, that brings in inflation to the whole world. It just need a few big players to realise that they actually don't need USA as it is a liability not an asset and withdraw from it, then good luck to those whose country that holds the most reserve in US currency.
If buyers have holding power, it will be ok.Regarding how it will affect SG property prices, of coz it will. If next round of printing and crash do not happen, then expect property price to continue to shoot up even higher, unless SG government put in even more fierce measures in the future.
If US default on loan, then no need say, property price will sure crash. No one will want to buy and want to sell off, plus rising interest rate put in even more stress among those who do not do their maths well and calculate solely base on the current interest rate now. Yes there is still rental income, but with bad economy, do you guys think people are willing to pay as much as it is now for rental?? Some may even have empty spaces due to cannot find people to rent their house/room, and that adds in liability.
more crucially is massive job losses cos when ppl lose jobs, they can't pay off their loans without rental income. As per MAS, i think 5-10% are in the risk bracket in case lose job. The current guys who pay 50% down can easily rent cheap. So it all boils down to jobs, income and holding power.
If really crisis, will 5-10% of buyers be able to crash the market (at least 40% dip)? i think that's difficult tbh
If buyers have holding power, it will be ok.
more crucially is massive job losses cos when ppl lose jobs, they can't pay off their loans without rental income. As per MAS, i think 5-10% are in the risk bracket in case lose job. The current guys who pay 50% down can easily rent cheap. So it all boils down to jobs, income and holding power.
If really crisis, will 5-10% of buyers be able to crash the market (at least 40% dip)? i think that's difficult tbh
It's possible, why not?? Look at year 1997 history, where HDB prices selling at 700+k before the crash, and when it crash, how much drop is the HDB prices ?? And by looking at in context of property price now, some HDB house sells at slightly more than 1million, a drop in 50% to 500k when crash is very possible.
and what currency will they turn to? That's why like it or not, a superpower just has the means to do these kinds of things.That is the problem, that brings in inflation to the whole world. It just need a few big players to realise that they actually don't need USA as it is a liability not an asset and withdraw from it, then good luck to those whose country that holds the most reserve in US currency.
Just like when ppl say SG got no debt, well, we have one of the highest national debt....cos govt can do whatever they want with our money.
It's possible, why not?? Look at year 1997 history, where HDB prices selling at 700+k before the crash, and when it crash, how much drop is the HDB prices ?? And by looking at in context of property price now, some HDB house sells at slightly more than 1million, a drop in 50% to 500k when crash is very possible.
in 97, credit was a lot more loose compared to now & i can't recall a single cooling measure then.
and what currency will they turn to? That's why like it or not, a superpower just has the means to do these kinds of things.
Just like when ppl say SG got no debt, well, we have one of the highest national debt....cos govt can do whatever they want with our money.
How I know?? I am not time machine, I cannot turn myself to future. I only base on fundamentals of sound $, that can see it happen in future, but when it will happen and what will be the future currency to turn to, I really don't know. I have no magic wand.
Edited by Yewheng, 04 September 2013 - 10:34 AM.
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